Weather Center

Current alerts

A severe thunderstorm warning in Kansas. 23 warnings are in effect in eight states and territories. 1 severe thunderstorm warning 11 flash flood warnings 1 winter storm warning 3 high wind warnings 2 river flood warnings 2 areal flood warnings 2 coastal flood warnings 1 high surf warning 8 states and territories (distinct warnings nationwide)

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NWS alerts checked 01:07Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:28Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 29 Oct 17:29Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 29 Oct 19:27Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 01:07Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 01:05Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:50Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 29 Oct 20:08Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 29 Oct 20:08Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / SPC selected outlook: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 01:07Z.

SPC selected outlook: Feed current; checked 01:05Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Potential too low: SPC expects too little severe weather to outline a 15% area. Predictability too low: the forecasts differ too much to place an area; severe storms are not ruled out. Neither means no hazardous weather.

Hazard & forecast product

Days 4–8 carry one product: SPC’s chance of any severe storm, outlined at 15% and 30%.

SPC Day 4 outlook, any severe, Sunday 1 Nov

Source: SPC

Forecast: SPC’s scale

SPC Day 4 outlook, any severe: Predictability too low

SPC Day 4 outlook, any severe, valid 1 Nov 12:00Z to 2 Nov 12:00Z, issued 29 Oct 07:42Z · Data: NOAA/SPC.

Everything on the map, as a list

SPC Day 4 outlook, any severe: Predictability too low

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Sunday planning outlook

SPC Days 4–8 · planning

Highest anywhere: Predictability too low

Predictability too low: the forecasts differ too much for SPC to place an area yet. Severe storms are not ruled out; they cannot be located this far ahead.

Where: No area is outlined anywhere for this day.
When: 1 Nov 12:00Z to 2 Nov 12:00Z: SPC’s Day 4, counted from its issuance at 29 Oct 07:42Z. No time of day is given.
Prepare: No preparation is indicated by this planning outlook. Check again as the day comes closer.

Official discussion

SPC Day 4–8 Convective Outlook, issued 29 Oct 07:44Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

000
ACUS48 KWNS 290744
SWOD48
SPC AC 290742

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Central/Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley Vicinity...

An upper trough is forecast to progress eastward from the western
states on Day 4/Sun to the MS Valley by Day 8/Thu. As this occurs, a
deepening surface cyclone will develop over the central Plains on
Sunday night into Monday and slowly shift east toward the Mid/Upper
MS Valley through Tuesday. A secondary low may also develop across
the southern Plains during this time. As the low progresses east, a
strong autumn cold fold will sweep across the Plains. 

Strong south/southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread rich
boundary layer moisture ahead of the front, and at least modest
destabilization is likely. However, deep-layer flow will be parallel
to this boundary, with a highly meridional component to deep-layer
flow. This may result in widespread heavy rain and training
precipitation, especially given this system will only slowly
progress eastward, and limit a greater severe thunderstorm risk.
Nevertheless, low severe thunderstorm potential is possible across
parts of the southern plains toward the Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast
Monday into Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday across the Southeast. At
this time, severe potential appears too low/uncertain/conditional to
include 15 percent probabilities, but trends will continue to be
monitored for increasing severe thunderstorm chances early to
mid-week.

..Leitman.. 10/29/2026

SPC’s Days 4–8 page

Forecast details

SPC’s Days 4–8 outlook outlines where it sees at least a 15% or a 30% chance of severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point on each day. It has no categories and no hazard of its own. “Potential too low” means SPC expects too little severe weather to outline 15%; “Predictability too low” means the forecasts differ too much to place an area, and severe storms are not ruled out. A day further out is less certain than Days 1–3. SPC’s Days 4–8 page.

Coming days · National

2026-10-30Severe storms: Marginal (1 of 5)Flash flooding: Slight (2 of 4)2026-10-30Severe storms: Marginal (1 of 5)Flash flooding: Slight (2 of 4)2026-10-31Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Slight (2 of 4)

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Watches & discussions

No active watches

1 mesoscale discussion

Discussion 2419: portions of central into northeastern Kansas, valid until 02:00Z. Chance SPC issues a watch: 20% (the chance a watch is issued, not the chance of a storm; no watch is in force from it)

Watches in the Live tracker Discussions in the Live tracker

What a watch and a discussion are

A watch says conditions favour severe storms over a wide area for hours; a warning means one is happening or imminent. A mesoscale discussion is the Storm Prediction Center’s note on an area it is watching, which may or may not lead to a watch.

Flash-flood risk

WPC outlines no excessive rainfall area for this period. WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook: a separate forecast with its own scale.

View flash-flood risk

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 29 Oct – 12Z 30 Oct

5 tornado · 1 wind · 0 hail

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms.

View reports: map, table & download

Warnings nationwide

23 warnings in 8 states

23 distinct warnings in effect. The Live tracker lists every one with its full text; the most urgent are here too.

NWS alerts checked 01:07Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 00:08Z: 1 warning ended and 1 new mesoscale discussion.

Storms 1

Severe thunderstorm 1

Flooding 17

Other weather 5

Most warnings by state

Every warning, most urgent first, in the Live tracker

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.