Weather Center

Current alerts

A severe thunderstorm warning in Kansas. 23 warnings are in effect in eight states and territories. 1 severe thunderstorm warning 11 flash flood warnings 1 winter storm warning 3 high wind warnings 2 river flood warnings 2 areal flood warnings 2 coastal flood warnings 1 high surf warning 8 states and territories (distinct warnings nationwide)

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NWS alerts checked 01:07Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:28Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 29 Oct 17:29Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 29 Oct 19:27Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 01:07Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 01:05Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:50Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 29 Oct 20:08Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 29 Oct 20:08Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / SPC selected outlook: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 01:07Z.

SPC selected outlook: Feed current; checked 01:05Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

SPC Day 1 categorical outlook, Friday 30 Oct

Source: SPC

Forecast: SPC’s scale

General Thunderstorms not severe
1 · Marginal Risk highest

View scale

General Thunderstorms not severe
1 · Marginal Risk
2 · Slight Risk (not outlined)
3 · Enhanced Risk (not outlined)
4 · Moderate Risk (not outlined)
5 · High Risk (not outlined)

In force now

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1
Flash Flood Warning 10
Flood Warning 4
Coastal Flood Warning 2
Mesoscale discussion 1

SPC Day 1 categorical outlook, valid 01:00Z to 12:00Z, issued 00:28Z · Data: NOAA/SPC. Warnings and watches are as of 01:07Z (now), not for the outlook’s period.The map draws the conterminous states. Alaska, Hawaii and Northern Mariana Islands have warnings too: they are counted above and listed below.

Everything on the map, as a list

SPC Day 1 categorical outlook: General Thunderstorms and Marginal Risk
Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Barton County, KS, until 01:15Z
Flash Flood Warning: Otero County, NM, until 02:00Z
Flash Flood Warning: Hidalgo County, NM, until 02:15Z
Flash Flood Warning: El Paso County, TX, until 02:15Z
Flash Flood Warning: Chaves, De Baca and Roosevelt counties, NM, until 02:30Z
Flash Flood Warning: Hidalgo County, NM, until 02:30Z
Flash Flood Warning: Dona Ana County, NM, until 02:45Z
Flash Flood Warning: Luna County, NM, until 03:00Z
Flash Flood Warning: Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties, AZ, until 03:00Z
Flash Flood Warning: Luna County, NM, until 03:30Z
Flash Flood Warning: Dona Ana, Otero and Sierra counties, NM, until 03:45Z
Flood Warning: Lake and Volusia counties, FL, until 16:00Z
Flood Warning: Socorro County, NM, until 18:00Z
Flood Warning: Socorro County, NM, until 18:00Z
Flood Warning: Lake and Volusia counties, FL, until 18:00Z
Coastal Flood Warning: Monroe Upper Keys; Monroe Middle Keys; Monroe Lower Keys, until 09:00Z
Coastal Flood Warning: Coastal Duval; Trout River; Inland Flagler; Eastern Clay; Eastern Putnam; South Central Duval; Western St. Johns, until 31 Oct 09:00Z
Mesoscale Discussion 2419: portions of central into northeastern Kansas

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Friday briefing

National maximum: Marginal Risk (1 of 5)

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

SPC: “Includes severe storms of either limited organization and longevity or very low coverage.” SPC’s definitions

Where

SPC’s headline: “There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of central and Northeast Kansas...and locally in Southwest Texas.” The marginal risk area touches Kansas and Texas; it covers parts of those states, not all of them.

When

Timing, approximate: SPC’s summary: “Thunderstorms with an isolated hail threat will be possible this evening over parts of central and northeast Kansas. A brief tornado will be possible in parts of southwest Texas early this evening.”

Outlook valid 01:00Z to 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive.

Main hazards

Tornadoes: 2% within 25 mi of a point.
Damaging wind: under 5% everywhere: SPC drew no area.
Large hail: 5% within 25 mi of a point.

Prepare

Know how your community sends warnings. NWS
There is no safe place outside when thunderstorms are in the area. … When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors. NWS
Do NOT drive into flooded roadways or around a barricade; Turn Around, Don't Drown! NWS

In the National Weather Service’s words, from weather.gov.

What changed

Raised to Marginal Risk (1 of 5) from General Thunderstorms.
General Thunderstorms area contracted by about a fifth and shifted southwest.

How this was compared

This issuance: 00:28Z. Earlier issuance: 29 Oct 19:59Z. The same product, SPC Day 1 categorical outlook, for the same day, ending 12:00Z; an outlook for another day is never compared with this one. SPC dates this day’s outlook from when each is issued, so this one runs from 01:00Z and the earlier one from 29 Oct 20:00Z. The whole outlook, measured in the map’s equal-area projection: an area is said to have grown or shrunk when it changes by a tenth and by 5,000 km², and to have moved when its centre moves 100 km.

Official discussion

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook narrative, issued 00:29Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

000
ACUS01 KWNS 300029
SWODY1
SPC AC 300028

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND LOCALLY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with an isolated hail threat will be possible this
evening over parts of central and northeast Kansas. A brief tornado
will be possible in parts of southwest Texas early this evening.

...Central and Northeast Kansas...
An anticyclonic flow pattern is evident over much of the central U.S
on water vapor imagery. At the surface, a stalled front is located
in central Kansas extending eastward into southern Illinois. Widely
scattered thunderstorms are developing near the front in central
Kansas in a moderately unstable airmass according the RAP, with
MLCAPE estimated to be around 2000 J/kg. Near the pocket of stronger
instability, the RAP has 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 6.5 to 7 C/km
range along with enough deep-layer shear for cell rotation. This
could be sufficient for a hail threat with the strongest of cells
this evening, as storms move and develop northeastward from central
Kansas into northeast Kansas...see MCD 2419.

...Southwest Texas...
A subtle shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
northern Mexico. Ahead of this feature, pockets of large-scale
ascent are evident over parts of Texas, where widespread
precipitation is ongoing. Weak instability is analyzed by the RAP
over parts of southwest, west and northwest Texas. The strongest
low-level flow is located over the western Texas Hill Country, where
RAP forecast soundings early this evening have 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity around 225 m2/s2 and surface dewpoints near 70 F. This
could be enough for a brief tornado with low-topped cells that
rotate within the moist airmass over the next couple more
hours...see MCD 2418.

..Broyles.. 10/30/2026

$$

SPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

SPC’s categorical outlook rates the coverage and intensity of organized severe storms on five levels, from Marginal (1) to High (5); “Thunderstorms” outlines a 10% or greater chance of thunderstorms and is not a severe category. Each probability is the chance of that hazard within 25 miles of a point during the valid period. An intensity overlay marks where significant severe hazards are more likely should storms occur. An outlook is a forecast; a warning means a storm is happening or imminent. SPC’s definitions.

Coming days · National

2026-10-30Severe storms: Marginal (1 of 5)Flash flooding: Slight (2 of 4)2026-10-30Severe storms: Marginal (1 of 5)Flash flooding: Slight (2 of 4)2026-10-31Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Slight (2 of 4)

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Watches & discussions

No active watches

1 mesoscale discussion

Discussion 2419: portions of central into northeastern Kansas, valid until 02:00Z. Chance SPC issues a watch: 20% (the chance a watch is issued, not the chance of a storm; no watch is in force from it)

Watches in the Live tracker Discussions in the Live tracker

What a watch and a discussion are

A watch says conditions favour severe storms over a wide area for hours; a warning means one is happening or imminent. A mesoscale discussion is the Storm Prediction Center’s note on an area it is watching, which may or may not lead to a watch.

Flash-flood risk

Slight risk of excessive rainfall at its highest, today. WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook: a separate forecast with its own scale.

View flash-flood risk

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 29 Oct – 12Z 30 Oct

5 tornado · 1 wind · 0 hail

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms.

View reports: map, table & download

Warnings nationwide

23 warnings in 8 states

23 distinct warnings in effect. The Live tracker lists every one with its full text; the most urgent are here too.

NWS alerts checked 01:07Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 00:08Z: 1 warning ended and 1 new mesoscale discussion.

Storms 1

Severe thunderstorm 1

Flooding 17

Other weather 5

Most warnings by state

Every warning, most urgent first, in the Live tracker

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.