Weather Center: Texas

Current alerts

1 high wind warning, 3 flood warnings, 3 freeze warnings and 4 red flag warnings touch Texas. 1 high wind warning 3 river flood warnings 3 freeze warnings 4 red flag warnings (touching Texas)

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NWS alerts checked 04:31Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:50Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 17:24Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 04:31Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 04:30Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:56Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / SPC selected outlook: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 04:31Z.

SPC selected outlook: Feed current; checked 04:30Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Potential too low: SPC expects too little severe weather to outline a 15% area. Predictability too low: the forecasts differ too much to place an area; severe storms are not ruled out. Neither means no hazardous weather.

Hazard & forecast product

Days 4–8 carry one product: SPC’s chance of any severe storm, outlined at 15% and 30%.

SPC Day 5 outlook, any severe, Tuesday 20 Oct

Source: SPC

Now, not forecast: Current warnings as of 04:31Z are drawn over the outlook for Tuesday 20 Oct, the warnings hatched so the forecast shows through. They are in force now; the outlook is for its own period. Show the forecast alone

Forecast: SPC’s scale

SPC Day 5 outlook, any severe: Potential too low

In force now

High Wind Warning 1
Flood Warning 3
Freeze Warning 3
Red Flag Warning 4

SPC Day 5 outlook, any severe, valid 20 Oct 12:00Z to 21 Oct 12:00Z, issued 16 Oct 07:52Z · Data: NOAA/SPC. Warnings and watches are as of 04:31Z (now), not for the outlook’s period.

Everything on the map, as a list

SPC Day 5 outlook, any severe: Potential too low
High Wind Warning: Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County; Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet; Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, until 06:00Z
Flood Warning: Brewster County, TX, until 18 Oct 15:12Z
Flood Warning: Val Verde County, TX, until 19 Oct 06:00Z
Flood Warning: Wichita and Wilbarger counties, TX, until 20 Oct 09:00Z
Freeze Warning: Cimarron; Texas; Beaver; Dallam; Sherman; Hansford; Ochiltree; Lipscomb; Hartley; Moore; Hutchinson; Roberts; Hemphill; Oldham; Potter; Carson; Gray; Deaf Smith; Randall; Armstrong; Palo Duro Canyon, until 14:00Z
Freeze Warning: Parmer; Castro; Swisher; Briscoe; Bailey; Lamb; Hale; Floyd; Cochran; Hockley; Lubbock; Crosby; Yoakum; Terry; Lynn, until 15:00Z
Freeze Warning: Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County; Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet; Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains; Northern Lea County; Central Lea County; Davis Mountains, until 15:00Z
Red Flag Warning: Vernon; Rapides; Avoyelles; Beauregard; Tyler; Northern Jasper; Northern Newton, until 06:00Z
Red Flag Warning: Lincoln; Union; Jackson; Ouachita; Natchitoches; Winn; Grant; Caldwell; La Salle; Sevier; Howard; Little River; Hempstead; Nevada; Miller; Lafayette; Columbia; Union; Caddo; Bossier; Webster; Claiborne; De Soto; Red River; Bienville; Sabine; McCurtain; Red River; Bowie; Franklin; Titus; Camp; Morris; Cass; Wood; Upshur; Marion; Smith; Gregg; Harrison; Cherokee; Rusk; Panola; Nacogdoches; Shelby; Angelina; San Augustine; Sabine, until 06:00Z
Red Flag Warning: Zapata; Jim Hogg; Brooks; Inland Kenedy; Starr; Southern Hidalgo; Inland Willacy; Inland Cameron; Northern Hidalgo, until 12:00Z
Red Flag Warning: Vernon; Rapides; Avoyelles; Beauregard; Tyler; Northern Jasper; Northern Newton; Allen; Evangeline; St. Landry; Lafayette; Upper St. Martin; Lower St. Martin; West Cameron; East Cameron; Northern Calcasieu; Northern Jefferson Davis; Northern Acadia; Upper Vermilion; Upper Iberia; Upper St. Mary; Southern Calcasieu; Southern Jefferson Davis; Southern Acadia; Lower Vermilion; Lower Iberia; Lower St. Mary; Hardin; Southern Jasper; Southern Newton; Upper Jefferson; Northern Orange; Lower Jefferson; Southern Orange, until 18 Oct 01:00Z
Outside Texas, for context: High Wind Warning: Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys including Nogales; Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail; South Central Pinal County including Eloy/Picacho Peak State Park; Southeast Pinal County including Kearny/Mammoth/Oracle; Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra Vista/Benson; Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox; Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford; Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains including Mount Graham; Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument; Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon; Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains including Mount Lemmon/Summerhaven, until 12:00Z
Outside Texas, for context: Flood Warning: Payne County, OK, until 07:34Z
Outside Texas, for context: Flood Warning: Jackson, Kiowa and Tillman counties, OK, until 18 Oct 20:00Z
Outside Texas, for context: Flood Warning: Cleveland, McClain and Pottawatomie counties, OK, until 19 Oct 12:00Z
Outside Texas, for context: Flood Warning: Cleveland and McClain counties, OK, until 20 Oct 05:00Z
Outside Texas, for context: Flood Warning: Canadian, Cleveland, Grady and McClain counties, OK, until 20 Oct 06:00Z
Outside Texas, for context: Freeze Warning: Trego; Ellis; Scott; Lane; Ness; Rush; Hamilton; Kearny; Finney; Hodgeman; Pawnee; Stafford; Stanton; Grant; Haskell; Gray; Ford; Edwards; Kiowa; Pratt; Morton; Stevens; Seward; Meade; Clark; Comanche; Barber, until 14:00Z
Outside Texas, for context: Freeze Warning: Russell; Lincoln; Barton; Ellsworth; Saline; Rice; McPherson; Reno; Kingman, until 14:00Z
Outside Texas, for context: Freeze Warning: Harper; Ellis, until 14:00Z
Outside Texas, for context: Freeze Warning: Northwest Plateau; Espanola Valley; Santa Fe Metro Area; Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area; Lower Rio Grande Valley; Central Highlands; South Central Highlands; Upper Tularosa Valley; Far Northeast Highlands; Union County; Harding County; Eastern San Miguel County; Guadalupe County; Quay County; Curry County; Roosevelt County; De Baca County; Chaves County Plains; Eastern Lincoln County; Southwest Chaves County; San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands, until 15:00Z
Outside Texas, for context: Freeze Warning: Lower Yampa River Basin; Central Yampa River Basin; Upper Yampa River Basin; Central Colorado River Basin; San Juan River Basin, until 15:00Z
Outside Texas, for context: Freeze Warning: Yuma County; Kit Carson County; Cheyenne County; Cheyenne; Rawlins; Decatur; Norton; Sherman; Thomas; Sheridan; Graham; Wallace; Logan; Gove; Greeley; Wichita; Dundy; Hitchcock; Red Willow, until 15:00Z
Outside Texas, for context: Freeze Warning: Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County; Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft; Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below 7400 Ft; Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet; Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft; Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft; Crowley County; La Junta Vicinity/Otero County; Eastern Las Animas County; Western Kiowa County; Eastern Kiowa County; Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County; Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County; Springfield Vicinity/Baca County, until 15:00Z
Outside Texas, for context: Red Flag Warning: Ashley; Chicot; Morehouse; West Carroll; East Carroll; Richland; Madison; Franklin; Catahoula; Tensas; Concordia; Bolivar; Sunflower; Leflore; Grenada; Carroll; Montgomery; Webster; Clay; Lowndes; Choctaw; Oktibbeha; Washington; Humphreys; Holmes; Attala; Winston; Noxubee; Issaquena; Sharkey; Yazoo; Madison; Leake; Neshoba; Kemper; Warren; Hinds; Rankin; Scott; Newton; Lauderdale; Claiborne; Copiah; Simpson; Smith; Jasper; Clarke; Jefferson; Adams; Franklin; Lincoln; Lawrence; Jefferson Davis; Covington; Jones; Marion; Lamar; Forrest, until 18 Oct 00:00Z
Outside Texas, for context: Red Flag Warning: Wayne; Perry; Greene; Stone; George, until 18 Oct 00:00Z
Outside Texas, for context: Red Flag Warning: Lincoln; Union; Jackson; Ouachita; Natchitoches; Winn; Grant; Caldwell; La Salle, until 18 Oct 00:00Z
Outside Texas, for context: Red Flag Warning: Pointe Coupee; West Feliciana; East Feliciana; St. Helena; Washington; Iberville; West Baton Rouge; East Baton Rouge; Assumption; St. James; Northern Tangipahoa; Southeast St. Tammany; Northern St. Tammany; Southwestern St. Tammany; Central Tangipahoa; Lower Tangipahoa; Northern Livingston; Southern Livingston; Western Ascension; Eastern Ascension; Wilkinson; Amite; Pike; Walthall; Pearl River; Hancock; Harrison; Jackson, until 18 Oct 01:00Z

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Tuesday planning outlook for Texas

SPC Days 4–8 · planning

Highest anywhere in Texas: Potential too low

Potential too low: SPC expects too little severe weather to outline even a 15% area. That is a low chance, not no chance.

Where: No area is outlined anywhere for this day.
When: 20 Oct 12:00Z to 21 Oct 12:00Z: SPC’s Day 5, counted from its issuance at 16 Oct 07:52Z. No time of day is given.
Prepare: No preparation is indicated by this planning outlook. Check again as the day comes closer.

Official discussion

SPC’s discussion covers the whole country and all five days, not Texas alone.

SPC Day 4–8 Convective Outlook, issued 16 Oct 07:54Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

000
ACUS48 KWNS 160754
SWOD48
SPC AC 160752

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A rather stagnant upper-air pattern will be in place across the
CONUS into early next week, with an upper ridge continuing over the
central U.S. as a mid-level cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic
coastline and an upper trough gradually amplifies along the West
Coast. By the middle to end of next week, the West Coast upper
trough will advance eastward toward the Rockies, encouraging surface
lee troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return (albeit
modest) across the Great Plains states. Thunderstorm development is
possible, especially across portions of the southern High Plains
Days 6-7 (next Wednesday-Thursday). However, deterministic guidance
suggests that little overlap of meaningful buoyancy and vertical
wind shear will take place over the southern High Plains next
Wednesday-Thursday, with calibrated ML/AI guidance only hinting at a
severe threat that will be isolated at best. Therefore, severe
probabilities have been withheld this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026

SPC’s Days 4–8 page

Forecast details

SPC’s Days 4–8 outlook outlines where it sees at least a 15% or a 30% chance of severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point on each day. It has no categories and no hazard of its own. “Potential too low” means SPC expects too little severe weather to outline 15%; “Predictability too low” means the forecasts differ too much to place an area, and severe storms are not ruled out. A day further out is less certain than Days 1–3. SPC’s Days 4–8 page.

Coming days · Texas

2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-10-18Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Flash-flood risk

WPC outlines no excessive rainfall area at this scope. WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook: a separate forecast with its own scale.

View flash-flood risk

River flooding

4 gauges in flood in Texas, observed or forecast.

Major flooding Galveston Railroad Bridge, TX (observed)
Moderate flooding Rio Grande at Foster Ranch, TX (forecast)
Minor flooding Red River at Burkburnett, TX (forecast)

And one more gauge in flood.

A gauge measures its river at that spot; it does not say whether a particular road or neighbourhood floods. Flash flooding is in the warnings.

Gauges in the Live tracker

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 16 Oct – 12Z 17 Oct

0 tornado · 0 wind · 0 hail in Texas

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms. None reported is not proof that nothing happened.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions in Texas. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings in Texas

11 warnings touching Texas

11 warnings touch Texas, most urgent first. A warning across a state line is counted here and in the other state.

NWS alerts checked 04:31Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 03:32Z: no change in the warnings.

Warnings 11

High wind Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County; Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet; Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains until 06:00Z crosses New Mexico and Texas Track: High Wind Warning, Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County; Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet; Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains
Flood Brewster County, TX until 18 Oct 15:12Z Track: Flood Warning, Brewster County, TX
Flood Val Verde County, TX until 19 Oct 06:00Z Track: Flood Warning, Val Verde County, TX
Flood Wichita and Wilbarger counties, TX until 20 Oct 09:00Z Track: Flood Warning, Wichita and Wilbarger counties, TX
Freeze Cimarron; Texas; Beaver; Dallam; Sherman; Hansford; Ochiltree; Lipscomb; Hartley; Moore; Hutchinson; Roberts; Hemphill; Oldham; Potter; Carson; Gray; Deaf Smith; Randall; Armstrong; Palo Duro Canyon until 14:00Z crosses Oklahoma and Texas Track: Freeze Warning, Cimarron; Texas; Beaver; Dallam; Sherman; Hansford; Ochiltree; Lipscomb; Hartley; Moore; Hutchinson; Roberts; Hemphill; Oldham; Potter; Carson; Gray; Deaf Smith; Randall; Armstrong; Palo Duro Canyon

All 11 warnings touching Texas, with their full text, in the Live tracker

48 warnings elsewhere in the country: the national list. Track Texas live

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

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