Weather Center

Current alerts

A typhoon warning in Guam and Northern Mariana Islands. 59 warnings are in effect in 24 states and territories. 1 typhoon warning 6 high wind warnings 1 tropical storm warning 11 river flood warnings 1 coastal flood warning 1 high surf warning 28 freeze warnings 10 red flag warnings 24 states and territories (distinct warnings nationwide)

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NWS alerts checked 03:10Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:50Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 17:24Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 03:10Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 03:10Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:56Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / SPC selected outlook: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 03:10Z.

SPC selected outlook: Feed current; checked 03:10Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Potential too low: SPC expects too little severe weather to outline a 15% area. Predictability too low: the forecasts differ too much to place an area; severe storms are not ruled out. Neither means no hazardous weather.

Hazard & forecast product

Days 4–8 carry one product: SPC’s chance of any severe storm, outlined at 15% and 30%.

SPC Day 5 outlook, any severe, Tuesday 20 Oct

Source: SPC

Forecast: SPC’s scale

SPC Day 5 outlook, any severe: Potential too low

SPC Day 5 outlook, any severe, valid 20 Oct 12:00Z to 21 Oct 12:00Z, issued 16 Oct 07:52Z · Data: NOAA/SPC.

Everything on the map, as a list

SPC Day 5 outlook, any severe: Potential too low

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Tuesday planning outlook

SPC Days 4–8 · planning

Highest anywhere: Potential too low

Potential too low: SPC expects too little severe weather to outline even a 15% area. That is a low chance, not no chance.

Where: No area is outlined anywhere for this day.
When: 20 Oct 12:00Z to 21 Oct 12:00Z: SPC’s Day 5, counted from its issuance at 16 Oct 07:52Z. No time of day is given.
Prepare: No preparation is indicated by this planning outlook. Check again as the day comes closer.

Official discussion

SPC Day 4–8 Convective Outlook, issued 16 Oct 07:54Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

000
ACUS48 KWNS 160754
SWOD48
SPC AC 160752

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A rather stagnant upper-air pattern will be in place across the
CONUS into early next week, with an upper ridge continuing over the
central U.S. as a mid-level cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic
coastline and an upper trough gradually amplifies along the West
Coast. By the middle to end of next week, the West Coast upper
trough will advance eastward toward the Rockies, encouraging surface
lee troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return (albeit
modest) across the Great Plains states. Thunderstorm development is
possible, especially across portions of the southern High Plains
Days 6-7 (next Wednesday-Thursday). However, deterministic guidance
suggests that little overlap of meaningful buoyancy and vertical
wind shear will take place over the southern High Plains next
Wednesday-Thursday, with calibrated ML/AI guidance only hinting at a
severe threat that will be isolated at best. Therefore, severe
probabilities have been withheld this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026

SPC’s Days 4–8 page

Forecast details

SPC’s Days 4–8 outlook outlines where it sees at least a 15% or a 30% chance of severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point on each day. It has no categories and no hazard of its own. “Potential too low” means SPC expects too little severe weather to outline 15%; “Predictability too low” means the forecasts differ too much to place an area, and severe storms are not ruled out. A day further out is less certain than Days 1–3. SPC’s Days 4–8 page.

Coming days · National

2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)2026-10-18Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Flash-flood risk

WPC outlines no excessive rainfall area for this period. WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook: a separate forecast with its own scale.

View flash-flood risk

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 16 Oct – 12Z 17 Oct

0 tornado · 33 wind · 0 hail

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings nationwide

59 warnings in 24 states

59 distinct warnings in effect. The Live tracker lists every one with its full text; the most urgent are here too.

NWS alerts checked 03:10Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 02:11Z: no change in the warnings.

Storms 0

None in effect.

Flooding 12

Other weather 47

Most warnings by state

Every warning, most urgent first, in the Live tracker

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.