Weather Center

Current alerts

A typhoon warning in Guam and Northern Mariana Islands. 61 warnings are in effect in 25 states and territories. 1 typhoon warning 7 high wind warnings 1 tropical storm warning 11 river flood warnings 1 coastal flood warning 1 high surf warning 28 freeze warnings 11 red flag warnings 25 states and territories (distinct warnings nationwide)

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NWS alerts checked 02:45Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:50Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 17:24Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 02:45Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 02:45Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:56Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / SPC selected outlook: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 02:45Z.

SPC selected outlook: Feed current; checked 02:45Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

Day 3 carries one combined probability.

SPC Day 3 categorical outlook, Sunday 18 Oct

Source: SPC

Forecast: SPC’s scale

General Thunderstorms not severe highest

View scale

General Thunderstorms not severe
1 · Marginal Risk (not outlined)
2 · Slight Risk (not outlined)
3 · Enhanced Risk (not outlined)
4 · Moderate Risk (not outlined)
5 · High Risk (not outlined)

SPC Day 3 categorical outlook, valid 18 Oct 12:00Z to 19 Oct 12:00Z, issued 16 Oct 19:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC.

Everything on the map, as a list

SPC Day 3 categorical outlook: General Thunderstorms

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Sunday briefing

National maximum: General Thunderstorms

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

SPC: “Encloses a 10% or higher probability of thunderstorms.” SPC’s definitions

Where

The general thunderstorms area touches Arizona, Florida and New Mexico; it covers parts of those states, not all of them.

When

Timing, approximate: SPC’s summary: “Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.”

Outlook valid 18 Oct 12:00Z to 19 Oct 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive. This period has not begun.

Main hazards

Any severe hazard: under 5% everywhere: SPC drew no area.

Prepare

There is no safe place outside when thunderstorms are in the area. … When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors. NWS
Do NOT drive into flooded roadways or around a barricade; Turn Around, Don't Drown! NWS

In the National Weather Service’s words, from weather.gov.

What changed

General Thunderstorms area expanded to about double and shifted west.

How this was compared

This issuance: 16 Oct 19:22Z. Earlier issuance: 16 Oct 06:49Z. The same product, SPC Day 3 categorical outlook, for the same day, ending 19 Oct 12:00Z; an outlook for another day is never compared with this one. Both are valid from 18 Oct 12:00Z. The whole outlook, measured in the map’s equal-area projection: an area is said to have grown or shrunk when it changes by a tenth and by 5,000 km², and to have moved when its centre moves 100 km.

Official discussion

SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook narrative, issued 16 Oct 19:23Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

000
ACUS03 KWNS 161923
SWODY3
SPC AC 161922

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A front will stall in the vicinity of south FL and provide a focus
for thunderstorm development in a moist environment with PW values
in excess of 2 inches.  Across AZ/NM, a midlevel trough will eject
northeastward in advance of height falls over the Pacific Northwest
coast late in the period.  Midlevel lapse rates, moisture and ascent
could be sufficiently deep for charge separation and isolated
lightning flashes with weak midlevel convection.

..Thompson.. 10/16/2026

$$

SPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

SPC’s categorical outlook rates the coverage and intensity of organized severe storms on five levels, from Marginal (1) to High (5); “Thunderstorms” outlines a 10% or greater chance of thunderstorms and is not a severe category. Each probability is the chance of that hazard within 25 miles of a point during the valid period. An intensity overlay marks where significant severe hazards are more likely should storms occur. An outlook is a forecast; a warning means a storm is happening or imminent. SPC’s definitions.

Coming days · National

2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)2026-10-18Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Flash-flood risk

Marginal risk of excessive rainfall at its highest, this period. WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook: a separate forecast with its own scale.

View flash-flood risk

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 16 Oct – 12Z 17 Oct

0 tornado · 33 wind · 0 hail

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings nationwide

61 warnings in 25 states

61 distinct warnings in effect. The Live tracker lists every one with its full text; the most urgent are here too.

NWS alerts checked 02:45Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 01:46Z: no change in the warnings.

Storms 0

None in effect.

Flooding 12

Other weather 49

Most warnings by state

Every warning, most urgent first, in the Live tracker

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.