Weather Center

Current alerts

A flash flood warning in Guam. 70 warnings are in effect in 35 states and territories. 1 flash flood warning 1 typhoon warning 4 high wind warnings 1 tropical storm warning 10 river flood warnings 2 coastal flood warnings 1 high surf warning 44 freeze warnings 6 red flag warnings 35 states and territories (distinct warnings nationwide)

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NWS alerts checked 09:50Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 05:14Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 05:45Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 07:16Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 09:50Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 09:50Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 07:55Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 07:55Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 07:55Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / SPC selected outlook: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 09:50Z.

SPC selected outlook: Feed current; checked 09:50Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

Day 3 carries one combined probability.

SPC Day 3 any severe probability, Monday 19 Oct

Source: SPC

Forecast: SPC’s scale

SPC Day 3 any severe probability: Less Than 5% All Areas

SPC Day 3 any severe probability, valid 19 Oct 12:00Z to 20 Oct 12:00Z, issued 07:16Z · Data: NOAA/SPC.

Everything on the map, as a list

SPC Day 3 any severe probability: Less Than 5% All Areas

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Monday briefing

National maximum: no area outlined

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

When

Timing, approximate: SPC’s summary: “Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.”

Outlook valid 19 Oct 12:00Z to 20 Oct 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive. This period has not begun.

Prepare

There is no safe place outside when thunderstorms are in the area. … When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors. NWS
Do NOT drive into flooded roadways or around a barricade; Turn Around, Don't Drown! NWS

In the National Weather Service’s words, from weather.gov.

Official discussion

SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook narrative, issued 07:16Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

000
ACUS03 KWNS 170716
SWODY3
SPC AC 170716

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level cut-off low will continue to meander off of the Atlantic
Coast while an upper trough deepens over the Interior West and an
upper ridge remains in place over the central U.S. on Monday. A cool
and/or stable low-level airmass will remain in place over most of
the U.S., limiting thunderstorm development. However, the
amplification of the western upper trough will promote low-level
moisture return beneath cooling temperatures aloft over the Desert
Southwest, increasing the chance for thunderstorms in this area. A
thunderstorm or two may also occur over the far southern FL
Peninsula, in tandem with the heating of some residual low-level
moisture.

..Squitieri.. 10/17/2026

$$

SPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

SPC’s categorical outlook rates the coverage and intensity of organized severe storms on five levels, from Marginal (1) to High (5); “Thunderstorms” outlines a 10% or greater chance of thunderstorms and is not a severe category. Each probability is the chance of that hazard within 25 miles of a point during the valid period. An intensity overlay marks where significant severe hazards are more likely should storms occur. An outlook is a forecast; a warning means a storm is happening or imminent. SPC’s definitions.

Coming days · National

2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Slight (2 of 4)2026-10-18Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)2026-10-19Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Flash-flood risk

Marginal risk of excessive rainfall at its highest, this period. WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook: a separate forecast with its own scale.

View flash-flood risk

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 16 Oct – 12Z 17 Oct

0 tornado · 33 wind · 0 hail

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings nationwide

70 warnings in 35 states

70 distinct warnings in effect. The Live tracker lists every one with its full text; the most urgent are here too.

NWS alerts checked 09:50Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 08:51Z: no change in the warnings.

Storms 0

None in effect.

Flooding 13

Other weather 57

Most warnings by state

Every warning, most urgent first, in the Live tracker

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.