Weather Center

Current alerts

Severe thunderstorm warnings in Kansas. 24 warnings are in effect in eight states and territories. 2 severe thunderstorm warnings 11 flash flood warnings 1 winter storm warning 3 high wind warnings 2 river flood warnings 2 areal flood warnings 2 coastal flood warnings 1 high surf warning 8 states and territories (distinct warnings nationwide)

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NWS alerts checked 01:13Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:28Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 29 Oct 17:29Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 29 Oct 19:27Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 01:13Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 01:10Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:50Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 29 Oct 20:08Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 29 Oct 20:08Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / WPC selected forecast: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 01:13Z.

WPC selected forecast: Feed current; checked 01:10Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

The address named a period no outlook is held for, so the current one is shown.

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, Friday 30 Oct

Source: WPC

Forecast: WPC’s scale

1 · Marginal
2 · Slight highest

View scale

1 · Marginal
2 · Slight
3 · Moderate (not outlined)
4 · High (not outlined)

In force now

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2
Flash Flood Warning 10
Flood Warning 4
Coastal Flood Warning 2
Mesoscale discussion 1

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 01:00Z to 12:00Z, issued 00:50Z · Data: NOAA/WPC. Warnings and watches are as of 01:13Z (now), not for the outlook’s period.The map draws the conterminous states. Alaska, Hawaii and Northern Mariana Islands have warnings too: they are counted above and listed below.

Everything on the map, as a list

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: Marginal and Slight
Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Barton County, KS, until 01:15Z
Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Barton and Rice counties, KS, until 02:15Z
Flash Flood Warning: Otero County, NM, until 02:00Z
Flash Flood Warning: Hidalgo County, NM, until 02:15Z
Flash Flood Warning: El Paso County, TX, until 02:15Z
Flash Flood Warning: Chaves, De Baca and Roosevelt counties, NM, until 02:30Z
Flash Flood Warning: Hidalgo County, NM, until 02:30Z
Flash Flood Warning: Dona Ana County, NM, until 02:45Z
Flash Flood Warning: Luna County, NM, until 03:00Z
Flash Flood Warning: Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties, AZ, until 03:00Z
Flash Flood Warning: Luna County, NM, until 03:30Z
Flash Flood Warning: Dona Ana, Otero and Sierra counties, NM, until 03:45Z
Flood Warning: Lake and Volusia counties, FL, until 16:00Z
Flood Warning: Socorro County, NM, until 18:00Z
Flood Warning: Socorro County, NM, until 18:00Z
Flood Warning: Lake and Volusia counties, FL, until 18:00Z
Coastal Flood Warning: Monroe Upper Keys; Monroe Middle Keys; Monroe Lower Keys, until 09:00Z
Coastal Flood Warning: Coastal Duval; Trout River; Inland Flagler; Eastern Clay; Eastern Putnam; South Central Duval; Western St. Johns, until 31 Oct 09:00Z
Mesoscale Discussion 2419: portions of central into northeastern Kansas

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Friday briefing

National maximum: Slight (2 of 4)

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

WPC: “Scattered flash floods possible.” WPC’s definitions

Where

WPC’s headline: “There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall for portions of west and central Texas and southeastern New Mexico.” The slight area touches New Mexico and Texas; it covers parts of those states, not all of them.

When

Timing, approximate: WPC’s summary: “Texas & New Mexico... Confidence remains high in a heavy rainfall event unfolding through tonight across portions of Texas and New Mexico as a mid- level disturbance previously associated with Vance moves into the region this evening. …” The whole discussion

Outlook valid 01:00Z to 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive.

Main hazards

Flash flooding: Slight, at least a 15% chance within 40 km (25 mi) of a point. Scattered flash floods possible.

Prepare

Know how your community sends warnings. NWS
There is no safe place outside when thunderstorms are in the area. … When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors. NWS
Do NOT drive into flooded roadways or around a barricade; Turn Around, Don't Drown! NWS

In the National Weather Service’s words, from weather.gov.

What changed

Marginal area contracted by about a tenth.
Slight area expanded by about a fifth.

How this was compared

This issuance: 00:50Z. Earlier issuance: 29 Oct 15:40Z. The same product, WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, for the same day, ending 12:00Z; an outlook for another day is never compared with this one. WPC dates this day’s outlook from when each is issued, so this one runs from 01:00Z and the earlier one from 29 Oct 16:00Z. The whole outlook, measured in the map’s equal-area projection: an area is said to have grown or shrunk when it changes by a tenth and by 5,000 km², and to have moved when its centre moves 100 km.

Official discussion

WPC Excessive Rainfall Discussion, Day 1, issued 00:54Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...

...Texas & New Mexico...
Confidence remains high in a heavy rainfall event unfolding through
tonight across portions of Texas and New Mexico as a mid- level
disturbance previously associated with Vance moves into the region
this evening. Southeasterly low-level flow will prime the
atmosphere ahead of the system, increasing PWATs to 1.5-2 inches
across much of Texas, which is well above normal for this time of
year. 00Z soundings showed precipitable water values of 1.35 inches
at Midland TX and 1.02 inches at El Paso. Effective bulk shear
remained near 30 kts, which should continue to organize
convection while a southern stream jet lifts across the southern
Plains, placing Texas under the favorable right entrance region
with enhanced upper level divergence. This combination of
ingredients should result in a prolonged period of large scale
ascent across the region that should support numerous showers and
thunderstorms across Texas and southern New Mexico. MU CAPE is
forecast to remain near 500-1000 J/kg across in and near portions
of the Slight Risk area.

The available ingredients support the concept of hourly rain
amounts to 2", which could occur with cell mergers, cell training,
or where a random mesocyclone occurs. A combination of the 18Z
REFS/HREF indicates that local totals of 5" are possible very near
the TX/MX border. The highest event totals should focus on the
southern side of the Slight Risk area where the highest moisture
values are expected to pool and will likely produce a high-end
Slight Risk scenario. The more widespread risk of flooding will
come from the prolonged nature of this event, with moderate to
locally heavy rain expected across much of West and Central Texas
and into southeastern New Mexico into Friday morning. Some of the
eastern portion of the risk areas has minimal, if any, top soil,
which would aid the flash flooding potential due to increased
runoff. The risk areas from this issuance strongly resemble
continuity.

MO/KS/IA/NE irregular border junction...
A warm front at 850 hPa lifts northward, with a pool of instability
in its wake. 12Z models suggested that precipitable water values
would rise to values around 1.25" or so...and the 30/00Z sounding
at Topeka observed a value of 1.20 inches and 2000 J per kg of
Cape. The 18Z HREF continued to show a backbuilding convective
scenario unfolding from 04z onward, and had probabilities of 3"+
maximize in a point near the NE/MO/KS border junction. There's
enough factors to maintain the Marginal Risk area issued earlier
today. Flash flooding would be most likely in urban areas, where
1.5" in an hour is possible.

Bann

WPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

The chance that rainfall exceeds flash flood guidance within 40 km (25 miles) of a point during the valid period, as WPC defines its categories. Marginal is at least 5%, Slight 15%, Moderate 40% and High 70%. WPC’s categories are separate from SPC’s severe-storm categories, and an outlook category is not a warning: a Flash Flood Warning means flooding is happening or imminent. WPC’s definitions.

Coming days · National

2026-10-30Severe storms: Marginal (1 of 5)Flash flooding: Slight (2 of 4)2026-10-30Severe storms: Marginal (1 of 5)Flash flooding: Slight (2 of 4)2026-10-31Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Slight (2 of 4)

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Watches & discussions

No active watches

1 mesoscale discussion

Discussion 2419: portions of central into northeastern Kansas, valid until 02:00Z. Chance SPC issues a watch: 20% (the chance a watch is issued, not the chance of a storm; no watch is in force from it)

Watches in the Live tracker Discussions in the Live tracker

What a watch and a discussion are

A watch says conditions favour severe storms over a wide area for hours; a warning means one is happening or imminent. A mesoscale discussion is the Storm Prediction Center’s note on an area it is watching, which may or may not lead to a watch.

Severe storms

Marginal risk (1 of 5) at its highest nationally. SPC’s convective outlook, on its own scale.

View severe outlook

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 29 Oct – 12Z 30 Oct

5 tornado · 1 wind · 0 hail

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms.

View reports: map, table & download

Warnings nationwide

24 warnings in 8 states

24 distinct warnings in effect. The Live tracker lists every one with its full text; the most urgent are here too.

NWS alerts checked 01:13Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 00:14Z: 1 warning ended and 1 new mesoscale discussion.

Storms 2

Severe thunderstorm 2

Flooding 17

Other weather 5

Most warnings by state

Every warning, most urgent first, in the Live tracker

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.