Weather Center: North Carolina

Current alerts

1 coastal flood warning and 2 freeze warnings touch North Carolina. 1 coastal flood warning 2 freeze warnings (touching North Carolina)

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NWS alerts checked 09:04Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 05:14Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 05:45Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 07:16Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 09:04Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 09:00Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 07:55Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 07:55Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 07:55Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / SPC selected outlook: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 09:04Z.

SPC selected outlook: Feed current; checked 09:00Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

Day 3 carries one combined probability.

SPC Day 3 any severe probability, Monday 19 Oct

Source: SPC

Now, not forecast: Current warnings as of 09:04Z are drawn over the outlook for Monday 19 Oct, the warnings hatched so the forecast shows through. They are in force now; the outlook is for its own period. Show the forecast alone

Forecast: SPC’s scale

SPC Day 3 any severe probability: Less Than 5% All Areas

In force now

Coastal Flood Warning 1
Freeze Warning 2

SPC Day 3 any severe probability, valid 19 Oct 12:00Z to 20 Oct 12:00Z, issued 07:16Z · Data: NOAA/SPC. Warnings and watches are as of 09:04Z (now), not for the outlook’s period.

Everything on the map, as a list

SPC Day 3 any severe probability: Less Than 5% All Areas
Coastal Flood Warning: Hatteras Island; Ocracoke Island, until 20 Oct 12:00Z
Freeze Warning: Avery; Madison; Yancey; Mitchell; Swain; Haywood; Buncombe; Graham; Northern Jackson; Macon; Southern Jackson, until 18 Oct 13:00Z
Freeze Warning: Ashe; Watauga; Tazewell; Smyth; Bland; Wythe; Grayson; Mercer; Summers; Monroe; Eastern Greenbrier; Western Greenbrier; Alleghany; Giles; Pulaski; Montgomery; Carroll; Floyd; Craig; Alleghany; Bath, until 18 Oct 13:00Z
Outside North Carolina, for context: Freeze Warning: Washington; Frederick; Carroll; Northern Baltimore; Extreme Western Allegany; Central and Eastern Allegany; Northwest Harford; Western Garrett; Eastern Garrett; Augusta; Rockingham; Shenandoah; Frederick; Page; Warren; Clarke; Western Highland; Eastern Highland; Western Loudoun; Northern Virginia Blue Ridge; Central Virginia Blue Ridge; Hampshire; Morgan; Berkeley; Jefferson; Hardy; Western Grant; Eastern Grant; Western Mineral; Eastern Mineral; Western Pendleton; Eastern Pendleton, until 18 Oct 12:00Z
Outside North Carolina, for context: Freeze Warning: Wayne; Fayette; Union; Franklin; Ripley; Dearborn; Ohio; Switzerland; Carroll; Gallatin; Boone; Kenton; Campbell; Owen; Grant; Pendleton; Bracken; Robertson; Mason; Lewis; Hardin; Mercer; Auglaize; Darke; Shelby; Logan; Union; Delaware; Miami; Champaign; Clark; Madison; Franklin; Licking; Preble; Montgomery; Greene; Fayette; Pickaway; Fairfield; Butler; Warren; Clinton; Ross; Hocking; Hamilton; Clermont; Brown; Highland; Adams; Pike; Scioto, until 18 Oct 13:00Z
Outside North Carolina, for context: Freeze Warning: Clinton; Howard; Boone; Tipton; Hamilton; Madison; Delaware; Randolph; Hancock; Henry; Shelby; Rush; Decatur; Montgomery; Hendricks, until 18 Oct 13:00Z
Outside North Carolina, for context: Freeze Warning: Fleming; Montgomery; Bath; Rowan, until 18 Oct 13:00Z
Outside North Carolina, for context: Freeze Warning: Scott; Harrison; Fayette; Bourbon; Nicholas; Clark, until 18 Oct 13:00Z
Outside North Carolina, for context: Freeze Warning: Greenup; Carter; Boyd; Lawrence; Perry; Morgan; Athens; Washington; Jackson; Vinton; Meigs; Gallia; Lawrence; Dickenson; Buchanan; Wayne; Cabell; Mason; Jackson; Wood; Pleasants; Tyler; Lincoln; Putnam; Kanawha; Roane; Wirt; Calhoun; Ritchie; Doddridge; Mingo; Logan; Boone; Clay; Braxton; Gilmer; Lewis; Harrison; Taylor; McDowell; Wyoming; Upshur; Barbour; Northwest Raleigh; Southeast Raleigh; Northwest Fayette; Southeast Fayette; Northwest Nicholas; Southeast Nicholas; Northwest Webster; Southeast Webster; Northwest Pocahontas; Southeast Pocahontas; Northwest Randolph; Southeast Randolph, until 18 Oct 13:00Z

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Monday briefing for North Carolina

Highest anywhere in North Carolina: no area outlined

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

The highest category anywhere in the state, from its outline; not every point in it.

When: Outlook valid 19 Oct 12:00Z to 20 Oct 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive. This period has not begun.
Prepare: Do NOT drive into flooded roadways or around a barricade; Turn Around, Don't Drown! NWS
In the National Weather Service’s words, from weather.gov.

Official discussion

SPC’s discussion covers the whole country, not North Carolina alone.

SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook narrative, issued 07:16Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

000
ACUS03 KWNS 170716
SWODY3
SPC AC 170716

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level cut-off low will continue to meander off of the Atlantic
Coast while an upper trough deepens over the Interior West and an
upper ridge remains in place over the central U.S. on Monday. A cool
and/or stable low-level airmass will remain in place over most of
the U.S., limiting thunderstorm development. However, the
amplification of the western upper trough will promote low-level
moisture return beneath cooling temperatures aloft over the Desert
Southwest, increasing the chance for thunderstorms in this area. A
thunderstorm or two may also occur over the far southern FL
Peninsula, in tandem with the heating of some residual low-level
moisture.

..Squitieri.. 10/17/2026

$$

SPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

SPC’s categorical outlook rates the coverage and intensity of organized severe storms on five levels, from Marginal (1) to High (5); “Thunderstorms” outlines a 10% or greater chance of thunderstorms and is not a severe category. Each probability is the chance of that hazard within 25 miles of a point during the valid period. An intensity overlay marks where significant severe hazards are more likely should storms occur. An outlook is a forecast; a warning means a storm is happening or imminent. SPC’s definitions.

Coming days · North Carolina

2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-10-18Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)2026-10-19Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Flash-flood risk

Marginal risk of excessive rainfall anywhere in North Carolina, this period. WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook: a separate forecast with its own scale.

View flash-flood risk

River flooding

5 gauges in flood in North Carolina, observed or forecast.

Moderate flooding Atlantic Coast at Duck (in MLLW), NC (forecast)
Minor flooding Atlantic Coast at Beaufort Marine Lab (in MLLW), NC (forecast)
Minor flooding Pamlico Sound at Coast Guard Hatteras (in MLLW), NC (forecast)

And two more gauges in flood.

A gauge measures its river at that spot; it does not say whether a particular road or neighbourhood floods. Flash flooding is in the warnings.

Gauges in the Live tracker

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 16 Oct – 12Z 17 Oct

0 tornado · 0 wind · 0 hail in North Carolina

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms. None reported is not proof that nothing happened.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions in North Carolina. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings in North Carolina

3 warnings touching North Carolina

3 warnings touch North Carolina, most urgent first. A warning across a state line is counted here and in the other state.

NWS alerts checked 09:04Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 08:05Z: no change in the warnings.

Warnings 3

Coastal flood Hatteras Island; Ocracoke Island until 20 Oct 12:00Z Track: Coastal Flood Warning, Hatteras Island; Ocracoke Island
Freeze Avery; Madison; Yancey; Mitchell; Swain; Haywood; Buncombe; Graham; Northern Jackson; Macon; Southern Jackson until 18 Oct 13:00Z Track: Freeze Warning, Avery; Madison; Yancey; Mitchell; Swain; Haywood; Buncombe; Graham; Northern Jackson; Macon; Southern Jackson
Freeze Ashe; Watauga; Tazewell; Smyth; Bland; Wythe; Grayson; Mercer; Summers; Monroe; Eastern Greenbrier; Western Greenbrier; Alleghany; Giles; Pulaski; Montgomery; Carroll; Floyd; Craig; Alleghany; Bath until 18 Oct 13:00Z crosses North Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia Track: Freeze Warning, Ashe; Watauga; Tazewell; Smyth; Bland; Wythe; Grayson; Mercer; Summers; Monroe; Eastern Greenbrier; Western Greenbrier; Alleghany; Giles; Pulaski; Montgomery; Carroll; Floyd; Craig; Alleghany; Bath

All 3 warnings touching North Carolina, with their full text, in the Live tracker

66 warnings elsewhere in the country: the national list. Track North Carolina live

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

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