Weather Center: Texas

Current alerts

1 flood warning touches Texas. 1 river flood warning (touching Texas)

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NWS alerts checked 04:45Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:54Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 17 Oct 16:59Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 17 Oct 19:09Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 04:45Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 04:45Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:35Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 17 Oct 20:27Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook checked 04:45Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / WPC selected forecast: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 04:45Z.

WPC selected forecast: Feed current; checked 04:45Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, Monday 19 Oct

Source: WPC

Now, not forecast: Current warnings as of 04:45Z are drawn over the outlook for Monday 19 Oct, the warnings hatched so the forecast shows through. They are in force now; the outlook is for its own period. Show the forecast alone

Forecast: WPC’s scale

No risk area is outlined for this period

View scale

1 · Marginal (not outlined)
2 · Slight (not outlined)
3 · Moderate (not outlined)
4 · High (not outlined)

In force now

Flood Warning 1

WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 19 Oct 12:00Z to 20 Oct 12:00Z · Data: NOAA/WPC. Warnings and watches are as of 04:45Z (now), not for the outlook’s period.

Everything on the map, as a list

WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: No excessive rainfall risk area outlined
Flood Warning: Wichita and Wilbarger counties, TX, until 21 Oct 00:32Z

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Monday briefing for Texas

Highest anywhere in Texas: no area outlined

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

The highest category anywhere in the state, from its outline; not every point in it.

When: Outlook valid 19 Oct 12:00Z to 20 Oct 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive. This period has not begun.
Prepare: No additional flood preparation is indicated by this outlook.
Rain and rivers: Expected rain: 0.25 in or more at its highest in Texas, in WPC’s forecast for the 24 hours 19 Oct 00:00Z to 20 Oct 00:00Z. An amount for the area its contour covers, not a total for any one street.
Rain that fell: under 0.01 in at its highest in Texas, in the 24 hours to 04:00Z, by MRMS’s radar estimate over a grid about 5 km across: a measurement of the past, not corrected to rain gauges.
Rivers: 1 gauge in flood in Texas, by NWS’s lists read 04:45Z. Minor flooding Beaver Creek (TX) at Electra, TX. Not flooding now: observed below action stage (where officials start to act), or not reporting. Listed for its forecast. Forecast issued 00:51Z · crest 25.6 ft at 19 Oct 18:00Z · below flood stage (24 ft) by 21 Oct 00:00Z: minor flooding. A gauge measures its river at that spot, not whether a road or a neighbourhood floods.
Three sources, each its own window. None is a chance of flash flooding, which is WPC’s outlook above; a flash flood is a warning’s. Gauges in the Live tracker

Official discussion

WPC’s discussion covers the whole country, not Texas alone.

WPC Excessive Rainfall Discussion, Day 3, issued 00:36Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

...Eastern North Carolina...
In coordination with WFOs MHX and AKQ, the Day 3 Marginal Risk has
been removed. The 12Z consensus is for the coastal low to be far
enough offshore to not warrant an excessive rainfall outlook. Some
guidance such as the 12Z AIGFS remain close enough to produce
moderate rainfall Monday over the Outer Banks. However, consensus
is now for any rainfall to be remain well below excessive levels
through Monday night.

Jackson


Day 4 and Day 5

Valid 12Z Tue Oct 20 2026 - 12Z Thu Oct 22 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

19z Update: The Marginal risk across the Southwest on day 5 still
look in good shape. It does appear that a Slight risk upgrade is
likely over a portion of this region as the event nears. However
still enough model spread with the timing of the approaching
mid/upper low to keep the risks at Marginal for now. This event
likely continues into day 6 (Thursday), with uncertainty regarding
which of the two days ends up having the greater flood risk.

The one change to the inherited Marginal risk area was an
expansion into southern/central NV, and an expansion into
southwest UT. These changes are based on model trends supporting
some weak instability getting into these areas, combined with high
PWs and some convective rainfall from the global models.

Chenard

...Previous Discussion...

...Southwest...
For Tuesday/Tuesday night, the Southwest is on the eastern
periphery of a deep layer cyclone/"outside slider" moving west of
CA. The atmosphere still doesn't appear to be sufficiently
saturated with 0.75-1" precipitable water values in an environment
with mild 1000-500 hPa thickness values. MU CAPE also appears
skimpy, with only small pockets of 250 J/kg forecast by the 00z
GFS. Continue not to carry a Marginal Risk since guidance is
maintaining serve over its past day of runs.

The situation changes markedly on Wednesday/Wednesday night, as
the deep layer cyclone approaches SoCal and scoops up moisture from
a dying Trudy and flings it into the Southwest. Near the cold low
itself, MU CAPE of 250-500 J/kg and precipitable water values of
1-1.3" with up to 30 kts of onshore flow at 850 hPa is forecast.
There's enough of a heavy rain signal for a Marginal Risk for the
Transverse and Peninsular Ranges, which is there to help cover burn
scar concerns. In and near the Four Corners, MU CAPE is forecast to
rise above 1000 J/kg, precipitable water values of 0.75-1.25" are
anticipated, and a few pieces of deterministic guidance are
definitely wet enough for a Marginal Risk with local 3-5" totals.
Hourly rain amounts to 2" would be possible across portions of AZ,
NM, and the Four Corners. It is possible that this area could carry
a greater risk as we move closer to this weather setup.

...Eastern NC/Southeast VA...
The guidance advertises a Nor'easter whose center is offshore North
Carolina, with an increasing signal for interior convection as
-18C air at 500 hPa moves over 28-29C sea surface temperatures
during the short range period and perhaps a convective comma
head/TROWAL which feeds off additional instability from the
western subtropical North Atlantic and tries to brush the NC
coast. The guidance has almost completely trended away from heavy
rainfall with the system Tuesday/Tuesday night, so removed the
Marginal Risk. Wednesday/Wednesday night is a question mark, as
the 00z Canadian guidance brings heavy rain back into eastern NC
at that time range. As most other guidance has left heavy rainfall
offshore, left any Marginal Risks out of the EROs for this system
for days 4-5. There is a non-zero chance of excessive rainfall/
flash flooding should a solution like the 00z Canadian come to
pass or the guidance tries to slosh/waver back westward in later
runs. Stay tuned.

Roth


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

WPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

The chance that rainfall exceeds flash flood guidance within 40 km (25 miles) of a point during the valid period, as WPC defines its categories. Marginal is at least 5%, Slight 15%, Moderate 40% and High 70%. WPC’s categories are separate from SPC’s severe-storm categories, and an outlook category is not a warning: a Flash Flood Warning means flooding is happening or imminent. WPC’s definitions.

Coming days · Texas

2026-10-18Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-10-18Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-10-19Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Severe storms

General thunderstorms at its highest nationally. SPC’s convective outlook, on its own scale.

View severe outlook

River flooding

1 gauge in flood in Texas, observed or forecast.

Minor flooding Beaver Creek (TX) at Electra, TX (forecast)

A gauge measures its river at that spot; it does not say whether a particular road or neighbourhood floods. Flash flooding is in the warnings.

Gauges in the Live tracker

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 17 Oct – 12Z 18 Oct

0 tornado · 0 wind · 0 hail in Texas

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms. None reported is not proof that nothing happened.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions in Texas. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings in Texas

1 warning touching Texas

1 warning touches Texas, most urgent first. A warning across a state line is counted here and in the other state.

NWS alerts checked 04:45Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 03:46Z: no change in the warnings.

Warnings 1

Flood Wichita and Wilbarger counties, TX until 21 Oct 00:32Z Track: Flood Warning, Wichita and Wilbarger counties, TX

All 1 warning touching Texas, with their full text, in the Live tracker

26 warnings elsewhere in the country: the national list. Track Texas live

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

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