Weather Center: North Carolina

NWS warnings: current · no activity

NWS warnings: Current · no activity; checked 04:33Z.

SPC selected outlook: Feed current; checked 04:30Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

Day 3 carries one combined probability.

This period does not carry the wind view, so the overall risk is shown.

SPC Day 3 categorical outlook, Sunday 18 Oct

Source: SPC

Forecast: SPC’s scale

General Thunderstorms not severe

View scale

General Thunderstorms not severe
1 · Marginal Risk (not outlined)
2 · Slight Risk (not outlined)
3 · Enhanced Risk (not outlined)
4 · Moderate Risk (not outlined)
5 · High Risk (not outlined)

SPC Day 3 categorical outlook, valid 18 Oct 12:00Z to 19 Oct 12:00Z, issued 16 Oct 19:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC.

Everything on the map, as a list

SPC Day 3 categorical outlook: General Thunderstorms

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Sunday briefing for North Carolina

Highest anywhere in North Carolina: no risk area

The highest category anywhere in the state, from its outline; not every point in it.

When: Outlook valid 18 Oct 12:00Z to 19 Oct 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive. This period has not begun.
Prepare: Do NOT drive into flooded roadways or around a barricade; Turn Around, Don't Drown! NWS
In the National Weather Service’s words, from weather.gov.

Official discussion

SPC’s discussion covers the whole country, not North Carolina alone.

SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook narrative, issued 16 Oct 19:23Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

000
ACUS03 KWNS 161923
SWODY3
SPC AC 161922

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A front will stall in the vicinity of south FL and provide a focus
for thunderstorm development in a moist environment with PW values
in excess of 2 inches.  Across AZ/NM, a midlevel trough will eject
northeastward in advance of height falls over the Pacific Northwest
coast late in the period.  Midlevel lapse rates, moisture and ascent
could be sufficiently deep for charge separation and isolated
lightning flashes with weak midlevel convection.

..Thompson.. 10/16/2026

$$

SPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

SPC’s categorical outlook rates the coverage and intensity of organized severe storms on five levels, from Marginal (1) to High (5); “Thunderstorms” outlines a 10% or greater chance of thunderstorms and is not a severe category. Each probability is the chance of that hazard within 25 miles of a point during the valid period. An intensity overlay marks where significant severe hazards are more likely should storms occur. An outlook is a forecast; a warning means a storm is happening or imminent. SPC’s definitions.

Current alerts

No warning touches North Carolina.

Open live tracker

NWS alerts checked 04:33Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:50Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 17:24Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 04:33Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 04:30Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:56Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

Coming days · North Carolina

2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-10-18Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Flash-flood risk

Marginal risk of excessive rainfall anywhere in North Carolina, this period. WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook: a separate forecast with its own scale.

View flash-flood risk

River flooding

4 gauges in flood in North Carolina, observed or forecast.

Moderate flooding Atlantic Coast at Duck (in MLLW), NC (forecast)
Minor flooding Atlantic Coast at Beaufort Marine Lab (in MLLW), NC (forecast)
Minor flooding Pamlico Sound at Coast Guard Hatteras (in MLLW), NC (forecast)

And one more gauge in flood.

A gauge measures its river at that spot; it does not say whether a particular road or neighbourhood floods. Flash flooding is in the warnings.

Gauges in the Live tracker

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 16 Oct – 12Z 17 Oct

0 tornado · 0 wind · 0 hail in North Carolina

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms. None reported is not proof that nothing happened.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions in North Carolina. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

Weather Center