Weather Center: Florida

Current alerts

2 flood warnings touch Florida. 2 river flood warnings (touching Florida)

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NWS alerts checked 05:36Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 05:14Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 17:24Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 05:36Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 05:35Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:56Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / SPC selected outlook: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 05:36Z.

SPC selected outlook: Feed current; checked 05:35Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

Day 3 carries one combined probability.

This period does not carry the tornado view, so the overall risk is shown.

SPC Day 3 categorical outlook, Sunday 18 Oct

Source: SPC

Now, not forecast: Current warnings as of 05:36Z are drawn over the outlook for Sunday 18 Oct, the warnings hatched so the forecast shows through. They are in force now; the outlook is for its own period. Show the forecast alone

Forecast: SPC’s scale

General Thunderstorms not severe highest in the state

View scale

General Thunderstorms not severe
1 · Marginal Risk (not outlined)
2 · Slight Risk (not outlined)
3 · Enhanced Risk (not outlined)
4 · Moderate Risk (not outlined)
5 · High Risk (not outlined)

In force now

Flood Warning 2
Red Flag Warning outside Florida

SPC Day 3 categorical outlook, valid 18 Oct 12:00Z to 19 Oct 12:00Z, issued 16 Oct 19:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC. Warnings and watches are as of 05:36Z (now), not for the outlook’s period.

Everything on the map, as a list

SPC Day 3 categorical outlook: General Thunderstorms
Flood Warning: Lake and Volusia counties, FL, until 16:00Z
Flood Warning: Sarasota County, FL, until 18 Oct 12:00Z
Outside Florida, for context: Flood Warning: Brantley County, GA, until 18 Oct 01:30Z
Outside Florida, for context: Red Flag Warning: Ashley; Chicot; Morehouse; West Carroll; East Carroll; Richland; Madison; Franklin; Catahoula; Tensas; Concordia; Bolivar; Sunflower; Leflore; Grenada; Carroll; Montgomery; Webster; Clay; Lowndes; Choctaw; Oktibbeha; Washington; Humphreys; Holmes; Attala; Winston; Noxubee; Issaquena; Sharkey; Yazoo; Madison; Leake; Neshoba; Kemper; Warren; Hinds; Rankin; Scott; Newton; Lauderdale; Claiborne; Copiah; Simpson; Smith; Jasper; Clarke; Jefferson; Adams; Franklin; Lincoln; Lawrence; Jefferson Davis; Covington; Jones; Marion; Lamar; Forrest, until 18 Oct 00:00Z
Outside Florida, for context: Red Flag Warning: Wayne; Perry; Greene; Stone; George, until 18 Oct 00:00Z
Outside Florida, for context: Red Flag Warning: Pointe Coupee; West Feliciana; East Feliciana; St. Helena; Washington; Iberville; West Baton Rouge; East Baton Rouge; Assumption; St. James; Northern Tangipahoa; Southeast St. Tammany; Northern St. Tammany; Southwestern St. Tammany; Central Tangipahoa; Lower Tangipahoa; Northern Livingston; Southern Livingston; Western Ascension; Eastern Ascension; Wilkinson; Amite; Pike; Walthall; Pearl River; Hancock; Harrison; Jackson, until 18 Oct 01:00Z

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Sunday briefing for Florida

Highest anywhere in Florida: General Thunderstorms

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

SPC: “Encloses a 10% or higher probability of thunderstorms.” SPC’s definitions

The highest category anywhere in the state, from its outline; not every point in it.

Where

Florida is touched by general thunderstorms (highest first). These are the categories anywhere in the state, not a reading for every point in it.

When

Local storm timing is not available from this outlook. SPC’s summary is written for the whole country: the national discussion.

Outlook valid 18 Oct 12:00Z to 19 Oct 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive. This period has not begun.

Main hazards

Any severe hazard: under 5% everywhere: SPC drew no area.

Prepare

There is no safe place outside when thunderstorms are in the area. … When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors. NWS
Do NOT drive into flooded roadways or around a barricade; Turn Around, Don't Drown! NWS

In the National Weather Service’s words, from weather.gov.

Official discussion

SPC’s discussion covers the whole country, not Florida alone.

SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook narrative, issued 16 Oct 19:23Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

000
ACUS03 KWNS 161923
SWODY3
SPC AC 161922

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A front will stall in the vicinity of south FL and provide a focus
for thunderstorm development in a moist environment with PW values
in excess of 2 inches.  Across AZ/NM, a midlevel trough will eject
northeastward in advance of height falls over the Pacific Northwest
coast late in the period.  Midlevel lapse rates, moisture and ascent
could be sufficiently deep for charge separation and isolated
lightning flashes with weak midlevel convection.

..Thompson.. 10/16/2026

$$

SPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

SPC’s categorical outlook rates the coverage and intensity of organized severe storms on five levels, from Marginal (1) to High (5); “Thunderstorms” outlines a 10% or greater chance of thunderstorms and is not a severe category. Each probability is the chance of that hazard within 25 miles of a point during the valid period. An intensity overlay marks where significant severe hazards are more likely should storms occur. An outlook is a forecast; a warning means a storm is happening or imminent. SPC’s definitions.

Coming days · Florida

2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)2026-10-18Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Flash-flood risk

Marginal risk of excessive rainfall anywhere in Florida, this period. WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook: a separate forecast with its own scale.

View flash-flood risk

River flooding

3 gauges in flood in Florida, observed or forecast.

Major flooding Navarre Beach Gulf of America (In MHHW), FL (observed)
Moderate flooding St. Johns River at Astor, FL (forecast)
Minor flooding Myakka River at Myakka River State Park, FL (observed)

A gauge measures its river at that spot; it does not say whether a particular road or neighbourhood floods. Flash flooding is in the warnings.

Gauges in the Live tracker

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 16 Oct – 12Z 17 Oct

0 tornado · 0 wind · 0 hail in Florida

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms. None reported is not proof that nothing happened.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions in Florida. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings in Florida

2 warnings touching Florida

2 warnings touch Florida, most urgent first. A warning across a state line is counted here and in the other state.

NWS alerts checked 05:36Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 04:37Z: no change in the warnings.

Warnings 2

Flood Lake and Volusia counties, FL until 16:00Z Track: Flood Warning, Lake and Volusia counties, FL
Flood Sarasota County, FL until 18 Oct 12:00Z Track: Flood Warning, Sarasota County, FL

All 2 warnings touching Florida, with their full text, in the Live tracker

69 warnings elsewhere in the country: the national list. Track Florida live

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

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