Weather Center

Current alerts

A typhoon warning in Guam and Northern Mariana Islands. 61 warnings are in effect in 25 states and territories. 1 typhoon warning 7 high wind warnings 1 tropical storm warning 11 river flood warnings 1 coastal flood warning 1 high surf warning 28 freeze warnings 11 red flag warnings 25 states and territories (distinct warnings nationwide)

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NWS alerts checked 02:45Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:50Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 17:24Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 02:45Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 02:45Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:56Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / SPC selected outlook: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 02:45Z.

SPC selected outlook: Feed current; checked 02:45Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

SPC Day 1 tornado probability, Saturday 17 Oct

Source: SPC

Forecast: SPC’s scale

SPC Day 1 tornado probability: Less Than 2% All Areas

In force now

High Wind Warning 7
Flood Warning 11
Freeze Warning 28
Red Flag Warning 11

SPC Day 1 tornado probability, valid 01:00Z to 12:00Z, issued 00:50Z · Data: NOAA/SPC. Warnings and watches are as of 02:45Z (now), not for the outlook’s period.The map draws the conterminous states. Guam and Northern Mariana Islands have warnings too: they are counted above and listed below.

Everything on the map, as a list

SPC Day 1 tornado probability: Less Than 2% All Areas
High Wind Warning: Western Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area; Santa Susana Mountains; Interstate 5 Corridor; Western San Gabriel Mountains and Highway 14 Corridor; Eastern San Gabriel Mountains, until 03:00Z
High Wind Warning: Lowlands of the Bootheel; Uplands of the Bootheel, until 06:00Z
High Wind Warning: Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County; Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet; Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, until 06:00Z
High Wind Warning: Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys including Nogales; Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail; South Central Pinal County including Eloy/Picacho Peak State Park; Southeast Pinal County including Kearny/Mammoth/Oracle; Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra Vista/Benson; Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox; Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford; Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains including Mount Graham; Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument; Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon; Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains including Mount Lemmon/Summerhaven, until 12:00Z
High Wind Warning: Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County; North Snowy Range Foothills, until 18 Oct 01:00Z
High Wind Warning: Eastern Toole and Liberty; East Glacier Park Region; Northern High Plains; Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera; Southern Rocky Mountain Front; Southern High Plains, until 18 Oct 06:00Z
High Wind Warning: San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire; San Diego County Inland Valleys; San Bernardino County Mountains; Riverside County Mountains; Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills; San Diego County Mountains; San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning, until 18 Oct 07:00Z
Flood Warning: Payne County, OK, until 07:34Z
Flood Warning: Lake and Volusia counties, FL, until 16:00Z
Flood Warning: Brantley County, GA, until 18 Oct 01:30Z
Flood Warning: Sarasota County, FL, until 18 Oct 12:00Z
Flood Warning: Brewster County, TX, until 18 Oct 15:12Z
Flood Warning: Jackson, Kiowa and Tillman counties, OK, until 18 Oct 20:00Z
Flood Warning: Val Verde County, TX, until 19 Oct 06:00Z
Flood Warning: Cleveland, McClain and Pottawatomie counties, OK, until 19 Oct 12:00Z
Flood Warning: Cleveland and McClain counties, OK, until 20 Oct 05:00Z
Flood Warning: Canadian, Cleveland, Grady and McClain counties, OK, until 20 Oct 06:00Z
Flood Warning: Wichita and Wilbarger counties, TX, until 20 Oct 09:00Z
Freeze Warning: Midland; Bay; Saginaw; Tuscola; Shiawassee; Genesee; Lapeer, until 12:00Z
Freeze Warning: Oceana; Newaygo; Mecosta; Isabella; Muskegon; Montcalm; Gratiot; Ottawa; Kent; Ionia; Clinton, until 12:00Z
Freeze Warning: Winnebago; Boone; McHenry; Ogle; Lee; De Kalb; Kane, until 13:00Z
Freeze Warning: Traverse; Big Stone; Codington; Grant; Hamlin; Deuel, until 14:00Z
Freeze Warning: Cimarron; Texas; Beaver; Dallam; Sherman; Hansford; Ochiltree; Lipscomb; Hartley; Moore; Hutchinson; Roberts; Hemphill; Oldham; Potter; Carson; Gray; Deaf Smith; Randall; Armstrong; Palo Duro Canyon, until 14:00Z
Freeze Warning: Mitchell; Howard; Winneshiek; Allamakee; Floyd; Chickasaw; Fayette; Clayton; Wabasha; Dodge; Olmsted; Winona; Mower; Fillmore; Houston; Taylor; Clark; Buffalo; Trempealeau; Jackson; La Crosse; Monroe; Juneau; Adams; Vernon; Crawford; Richland; Grant, until 14:00Z
Freeze Warning: Trego; Ellis; Scott; Lane; Ness; Rush; Hamilton; Kearny; Finney; Hodgeman; Pawnee; Stafford; Stanton; Grant; Haskell; Gray; Ford; Edwards; Kiowa; Pratt; Morton; Stevens; Seward; Meade; Clark; Comanche; Barber, until 14:00Z
Freeze Warning: Emmet; Kossuth; Winnebago; Worth; Palo Alto; Hancock; Cerro Gordo; Pocahontas; Humboldt; Wright; Franklin; Butler; Bremer; Sac; Calhoun; Webster; Hamilton; Hardin; Grundy; Black Hawk; Crawford; Carroll; Greene; Boone; Story; Marshall; Tama; Audubon; Guthrie; Dallas; Polk; Jasper; Poweshiek; Cass; Adair; Madison; Warren; Marion; Mahaska; Adams; Union; Clarke; Lucas; Monroe; Wapello; Taylor; Ringgold; Decatur; Wayne; Appanoose, until 14:00Z
Freeze Warning: Buchanan; Delaware; Dubuque; Benton; Linn; Jones; Jackson; Iowa; Johnson; Cedar; Clinton; Muscatine; Scott; Keokuk; Washington; Jefferson; Jo Daviess; Stephenson; Carroll; Whiteside; Rock Island, until 14:00Z
Freeze Warning: Atchison; Doniphan; Atchison; Nodaway; Worth; Gentry; Harrison; Mercer; Putnam; Holt; Andrew; De Kalb; Daviess; Grundy; Sullivan; Buchanan, until 14:00Z
Freeze Warning: Wilkin; West Otter Tail; East Otter Tail; Wadena; Grant, until 14:00Z
Freeze Warning: Lyon; Sioux; Plymouth; Woodbury; Lincoln; Lyon; Murray; Pipestone; Rock; Dixon; Dakota; Kingsbury; Brookings; Miner; Lake; Moody; Hanson; McCook; Minnehaha; Hutchinson; Turner; Lincoln; Bon Homme; Yankton; Clay; Union; Osceola; Dickinson; O'Brien; Clay; Cherokee; Buena Vista; Ida; Cottonwood; Nobles; Jackson, until 14:00Z
Freeze Warning: Phillips; Smith; Jewell; Rooks; Osborne; Mitchell; Valley; Greeley; Nance; Sherman; Howard; Merrick; Polk; Dawson; Buffalo; Hall; Hamilton; York; Gosper; Phelps; Kearney; Adams; Clay; Fillmore; Furnas; Harlan; Franklin; Webster; Nuckolls; Thayer, until 14:00Z
Freeze Warning: Menominee; Marathon; Shawano; Wood; Portage; Waupaca; Outagamie; Brown; Kewaunee; Waushara; Winnebago; Calumet; Manitowoc; Southern Marinette County; Southern Oconto County, until 14:00Z
Freeze Warning: Russell; Lincoln; Barton; Ellsworth; Saline; Rice; McPherson; Reno; Kingman, until 14:00Z
Freeze Warning: Marquette; Green Lake; Fond Du Lac; Sheboygan; Sauk; Columbia; Dodge; Washington; Iowa; Dane; Jefferson; Waukesha; Lafayette; Green; Rock; Walworth, until 14:00Z
Freeze Warning: Hennepin; Ramsey; Douglas; Todd; Morrison; Mille Lacs; Kanabec; Stevens; Pope; Stearns; Benton; Sherburne; Isanti; Chisago; Lac Qui Parle; Swift; Chippewa; Kandiyohi; Meeker; Wright; Anoka; Washington; Yellow Medicine; Renville; McLeod; Sibley; Carver; Scott; Dakota; Redwood; Brown; Nicollet; Le Sueur; Rice; Goodhue; Watonwan; Blue Earth; Waseca; Steele; Martin; Faribault; Freeborn; Polk; Barron; Rusk; St. Croix; Pierce; Dunn; Pepin; Chippewa; Eau Claire, until 14:00Z
Freeze Warning: Monona; Harrison; Shelby; Pottawattamie; Mills; Montgomery; Fremont; Page; Knox; Cedar; Thurston; Antelope; Pierce; Wayne; Boone; Madison; Stanton; Cuming; Burt; Platte; Colfax; Dodge; Washington; Butler; Saunders; Douglas; Sarpy; Seward; Lancaster; Cass; Otoe; Saline; Jefferson; Gage; Johnson; Nemaha; Pawnee; Richardson, until 14:00Z
Freeze Warning: Harper; Ellis, until 14:00Z
Freeze Warning: Republic; Washington; Marshall; Nemaha; Brown; Cloud; Clay; Riley; Pottawatomie; Jackson; Ottawa; Dickinson; Geary, until 14:00Z
Freeze Warning: Northwest Plateau; Espanola Valley; Santa Fe Metro Area; Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area; Lower Rio Grande Valley; Central Highlands; South Central Highlands; Upper Tularosa Valley; Far Northeast Highlands; Union County; Harding County; Eastern San Miguel County; Guadalupe County; Quay County; Curry County; Roosevelt County; De Baca County; Chaves County Plains; Eastern Lincoln County; Southwest Chaves County; San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands, until 15:00Z
Freeze Warning: Sedgwick County; Phillips County, until 15:00Z
Freeze Warning: Lower Yampa River Basin; Central Yampa River Basin; Upper Yampa River Basin; Central Colorado River Basin; San Juan River Basin, until 15:00Z
Freeze Warning: Yuma County; Kit Carson County; Cheyenne County; Cheyenne; Rawlins; Decatur; Norton; Sherman; Thomas; Sheridan; Graham; Wallace; Logan; Gove; Greeley; Wichita; Dundy; Hitchcock; Red Willow, until 15:00Z
Freeze Warning: Arthur; Keith; Perkins; Chase; Eastern Cherry; Keya Paha; Boyd; Brown; Rock; Holt; Hooker; Thomas; Blaine; Loup; Garfield; Wheeler; McPherson; Logan; Custer; Lincoln; Hayes; Frontier, until 15:00Z
Freeze Warning: Parmer; Castro; Swisher; Briscoe; Bailey; Lamb; Hale; Floyd; Cochran; Hockley; Lubbock; Crosby; Yoakum; Terry; Lynn, until 15:00Z
Freeze Warning: Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County; Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet; Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains; Northern Lea County; Central Lea County; Davis Mountains, until 15:00Z
Freeze Warning: Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County; Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft; Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below 7400 Ft; Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet; Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft; Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft; Crowley County; La Junta Vicinity/Otero County; Eastern Las Animas County; Western Kiowa County; Eastern Kiowa County; Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County; Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County; Springfield Vicinity/Baca County, until 15:00Z
Red Flag Warning: Grande Ronde Valley of Oregon, until 03:00Z
Red Flag Warning: Central Sierra; North Kings River; Sequoia Kings; Lake Isabella; Tehachapi Area; Fort Tejon, until 05:00Z
Red Flag Warning: Vernon; Rapides; Avoyelles; Beauregard; Tyler; Northern Jasper; Northern Newton, until 06:00Z
Red Flag Warning: Lincoln; Union; Jackson; Ouachita; Natchitoches; Winn; Grant; Caldwell; La Salle; Sevier; Howard; Little River; Hempstead; Nevada; Miller; Lafayette; Columbia; Union; Caddo; Bossier; Webster; Claiborne; De Soto; Red River; Bienville; Sabine; McCurtain; Red River; Bowie; Franklin; Titus; Camp; Morris; Cass; Wood; Upshur; Marion; Smith; Gregg; Harrison; Cherokee; Rusk; Panola; Nacogdoches; Shelby; Angelina; San Augustine; Sabine, until 06:00Z
Red Flag Warning: Zapata; Jim Hogg; Brooks; Inland Kenedy; Starr; Southern Hidalgo; Inland Willacy; Inland Cameron; Northern Hidalgo, until 12:00Z
Red Flag Warning: Ashley; Chicot; Morehouse; West Carroll; East Carroll; Richland; Madison; Franklin; Catahoula; Tensas; Concordia; Bolivar; Sunflower; Leflore; Grenada; Carroll; Montgomery; Webster; Clay; Lowndes; Choctaw; Oktibbeha; Washington; Humphreys; Holmes; Attala; Winston; Noxubee; Issaquena; Sharkey; Yazoo; Madison; Leake; Neshoba; Kemper; Warren; Hinds; Rankin; Scott; Newton; Lauderdale; Claiborne; Copiah; Simpson; Smith; Jasper; Clarke; Jefferson; Adams; Franklin; Lincoln; Lawrence; Jefferson Davis; Covington; Jones; Marion; Lamar; Forrest, until 18 Oct 00:00Z
Red Flag Warning: Wayne; Perry; Greene; Stone; George, until 18 Oct 00:00Z
Red Flag Warning: Lincoln; Union; Jackson; Ouachita; Natchitoches; Winn; Grant; Caldwell; La Salle, until 18 Oct 00:00Z
Red Flag Warning: Vernon; Rapides; Avoyelles; Beauregard; Tyler; Northern Jasper; Northern Newton; Allen; Evangeline; St. Landry; Lafayette; Upper St. Martin; Lower St. Martin; West Cameron; East Cameron; Northern Calcasieu; Northern Jefferson Davis; Northern Acadia; Upper Vermilion; Upper Iberia; Upper St. Mary; Southern Calcasieu; Southern Jefferson Davis; Southern Acadia; Lower Vermilion; Lower Iberia; Lower St. Mary; Hardin; Southern Jasper; Southern Newton; Upper Jefferson; Northern Orange; Lower Jefferson; Southern Orange, until 18 Oct 01:00Z
Red Flag Warning: Pointe Coupee; West Feliciana; East Feliciana; St. Helena; Washington; Iberville; West Baton Rouge; East Baton Rouge; Assumption; St. James; Northern Tangipahoa; Southeast St. Tammany; Northern St. Tammany; Southwestern St. Tammany; Central Tangipahoa; Lower Tangipahoa; Northern Livingston; Southern Livingston; Western Ascension; Eastern Ascension; Wilkinson; Amite; Pike; Walthall; Pearl River; Hancock; Harrison; Jackson, until 18 Oct 01:00Z
Red Flag Warning: Western Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area; Eastern Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area; Santa Susana Mountains; Southern Ventura County Mountains; Northern Ventura County Mountains; Interstate 5 Corridor; Western San Gabriel Mountains and Highway 14 Corridor; Eastern San Gabriel Mountains; Western Antelope Valley Foothills; Eastern Antelope Valley Foothills; Santa Clarita Valley; Ventura County Beaches; Ventura County Inland Coast; Lake Casitas; Ojai Valley; Central Ventura County Valleys; Malibu Coast; Calabasas and Agoura Hills; Western San Fernando Valley; Eastern San Fernando Valley; Southeastern Ventura County Valleys; Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valley, until 18 Oct 03:00Z

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Saturday briefing

National maximum: no area outlined

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

When

Timing, approximate: SPC’s summary: “Severe thunderstorm potential appears low through the remainder of tonight.”

Outlook valid 01:00Z to 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive.

Prepare

There is no safe place outside when thunderstorms are in the area. … When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors. NWS
Do NOT drive into flooded roadways or around a barricade; Turn Around, Don't Drown! NWS

In the National Weather Service’s words, from weather.gov.

What changed

Every risk area was removed; the earlier issuance had 2% tornado at its highest.
2% tornado area removed.

How this was compared

This issuance: 00:50Z. Earlier issuance: 16 Oct 19:56Z. The same product, SPC Day 1 tornado probability, for the same day, ending 12:00Z; an outlook for another day is never compared with this one. SPC dates this day’s outlook from when each is issued, so this one runs from 01:00Z and the earlier one from 16 Oct 20:00Z. The whole outlook, measured in the map’s equal-area projection: an area is said to have grown or shrunk when it changes by a tenth and by 5,000 km², and to have moved when its centre moves 100 km.

Official discussion

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook narrative, issued 00:51Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

000
ACUS01 KWNS 170051
SWODY1
SPC AC 170050

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low through the remainder of
tonight.

...01Z Update...
Convection associated with a strong cold front has generally
weakened or moved offshore of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England this evening. Sporadic thunderstorm activity could persist
through the remainder of the evening across these areas, though the
generally post-frontal nature of the remaining convection should
limit severe potential. Otherwise, ongoing storms across the FL
Peninsula should generally weaken through the evening, though some
storm potential may persist overnight across the FL Keys and
near-coastal areas.

..Dean.. 10/17/2026

$$

SPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

SPC’s categorical outlook rates the coverage and intensity of organized severe storms on five levels, from Marginal (1) to High (5); “Thunderstorms” outlines a 10% or greater chance of thunderstorms and is not a severe category. Each probability is the chance of that hazard within 25 miles of a point during the valid period. An intensity overlay marks where significant severe hazards are more likely should storms occur. An outlook is a forecast; a warning means a storm is happening or imminent. SPC’s definitions.

Coming days · National

2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)2026-10-18Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Flash-flood risk

Marginal risk of excessive rainfall at its highest, today. WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook: a separate forecast with its own scale.

View flash-flood risk

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 16 Oct – 12Z 17 Oct

0 tornado · 33 wind · 0 hail

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings nationwide

61 warnings in 25 states

61 distinct warnings in effect. The Live tracker lists every one with its full text; the most urgent are here too.

NWS alerts checked 02:45Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 01:46Z: no change in the warnings.

Storms 0

None in effect.

Flooding 12

Other weather 49

Most warnings by state

Every warning, most urgent first, in the Live tracker

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.