Weather Center: Texas

Current alerts

1 flood warning touches Texas. 1 river flood warning (touching Texas)

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NWS alerts checked 06:44Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 05:51Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 05:50Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 17 Oct 19:09Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 06:44Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 06:40Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:35Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 17 Oct 20:27Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook checked 06:40Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / WPC selected forecast: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 06:44Z.

WPC selected forecast: Feed current; checked 06:40Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

The address named a period no outlook is held for, so the current one is shown.

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, Sunday 18 Oct

Source: WPC

Forecast: WPC’s scale

1 · Marginal
2 · Slight

View scale

1 · Marginal
2 · Slight
3 · Moderate (not outlined)
4 · High (not outlined)

In force now

Flood Warning 1

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 01:00Z to 12:00Z, issued 00:35Z · Data: NOAA/WPC. Warnings and watches are as of 06:44Z (now), not for the outlook’s period.

Everything on the map, as a list

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: Marginal and Slight
Flood Warning: Wichita and Wilbarger counties, TX, until 21 Oct 00:32Z

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Sunday briefing for Texas

Highest anywhere in Texas: no risk area

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

The highest category anywhere in the state, from its outline; not every point in it.

When: Outlook valid 01:00Z to 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive.
Prepare: A warning is in force here: follow its instructions in Current alerts first.
Rain and rivers: Expected rain: 0.01 in or more at its highest in Texas, in WPC’s forecast for the 24 hours 12:00Z to 19 Oct 12:00Z. An amount for the area its contour covers, not a total for any one street.
Rain that fell: under 0.01 in at its highest in Texas, in the 24 hours to 06:00Z, by MRMS’s radar estimate over a grid about 5 km across: a measurement of the past, not corrected to rain gauges.
Rivers: 1 gauge in flood in Texas, by NWS’s lists read 06:35Z. Minor flooding Beaver Creek (TX) at Electra, TX. Not flooding now: observed below action stage (where officials start to act), or not reporting. Listed for its forecast. Forecast issued 00:51Z · crest 25.6 ft at 19 Oct 18:00Z · below flood stage (24 ft) by 21 Oct 00:00Z: minor flooding. A gauge measures its river at that spot, not whether a road or a neighbourhood floods.
Three sources, each its own window. None is a chance of flash flooding, which is WPC’s outlook above; a flash flood is a warning’s. Gauges in the Live tracker

Official discussion

WPC’s discussion covers the whole country, not Texas alone.

WPC Excessive Rainfall Discussion, Day 1, issued 00:36Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE FLORIDA
GOLD COAST...

A Slight risk remains in effect for the southeast FL urban corridor
through the overnight hours. Strengthening low level convergence
within northeasterly post frontal flow may serve as a focus for
slow moving low topped convective cells near the immediate coast.
While instability will be limited, strong boundary layer
convergence paired with anomalous PW values around 2.3" will
support highly efficient warm rain processes in any heavier cells.

Several recent HRRR runs have signaled this potential, showing
localized rainfall totals exceeding 6" somewhere between Boynton
Beach and Miami. Overall, this remains a tricky low confidence
setup. The heaviest convective cores could remain offshore, and any
heavier rain that does push inland will likely be localized.
However, a conditional flood threat exists...should convective
cells anchor along the immediate coast, localized extreme rainfall
rates could result in a locally significant urban flash flood
threat.

Chenard

WPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

The chance that rainfall exceeds flash flood guidance within 40 km (25 miles) of a point during the valid period, as WPC defines its categories. Marginal is at least 5%, Slight 15%, Moderate 40% and High 70%. WPC’s categories are separate from SPC’s severe-storm categories, and an outlook category is not a warning: a Flash Flood Warning means flooding is happening or imminent. WPC’s definitions.

Coming days · Texas

2026-10-18Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-10-19Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Severe storms

SPC’s outlook is not reported. SPC’s convective outlook, on its own scale.

View severe outlook

River flooding

1 gauge in flood in Texas, observed or forecast.

Minor flooding Beaver Creek (TX) at Electra, TX (forecast)

A gauge measures its river at that spot; it does not say whether a particular road or neighbourhood floods. Flash flooding is in the warnings.

Gauges in the Live tracker

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 17 Oct – 12Z 18 Oct

0 tornado · 0 wind · 0 hail in Texas

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms. None reported is not proof that nothing happened.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions in Texas. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings in Texas

1 warning touching Texas

1 warning touches Texas, most urgent first. A warning across a state line is counted here and in the other state.

NWS alerts checked 06:44Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 05:45Z: no change in the warnings.

Warnings 1

Flood Wichita and Wilbarger counties, TX until 21 Oct 00:32Z Track: Flood Warning, Wichita and Wilbarger counties, TX

All 1 warning touching Texas, with their full text, in the Live tracker

23 warnings elsewhere in the country: the national list. Track Texas live

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

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