Weather Center: North Carolina

Current alerts

2 freeze warnings touch North Carolina. 2 freeze warnings (touching North Carolina)

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NWS alerts checked 05:38Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 05:14Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 17:24Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 05:38Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 05:35Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:56Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / WPC selected forecast: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 05:38Z.

WPC selected forecast: Feed current; checked 05:35Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, Saturday 17 Oct

Source: WPC

Forecast: WPC’s scale

1 · Marginal

View scale

1 · Marginal
2 · Slight (not outlined)
3 · Moderate (not outlined)
4 · High (not outlined)

In force now

Freeze Warning 2

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 01:00Z to 12:00Z, issued 00:56Z · Data: NOAA/WPC. Warnings and watches are as of 05:38Z (now), not for the outlook’s period.

Everything on the map, as a list

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: Marginal
Freeze Warning: Avery; Madison; Yancey; Mitchell; Swain; Haywood; Buncombe; Graham; Northern Jackson; Macon; Southern Jackson, until 18 Oct 13:00Z
Freeze Warning: Ashe; Watauga; Tazewell; Smyth; Bland; Wythe; Grayson; Mercer; Summers; Monroe; Eastern Greenbrier; Western Greenbrier; Alleghany; Giles; Pulaski; Montgomery; Carroll; Floyd; Craig; Alleghany; Bath, until 18 Oct 13:00Z
Outside North Carolina, for context: Freeze Warning: Washington; Frederick; Carroll; Northern Baltimore; Extreme Western Allegany; Central and Eastern Allegany; Northwest Harford; Western Garrett; Eastern Garrett; Augusta; Rockingham; Shenandoah; Frederick; Page; Warren; Clarke; Western Highland; Eastern Highland; Western Loudoun; Northern Virginia Blue Ridge; Central Virginia Blue Ridge; Hampshire; Morgan; Berkeley; Jefferson; Hardy; Western Grant; Eastern Grant; Western Mineral; Eastern Mineral; Western Pendleton; Eastern Pendleton, until 18 Oct 12:00Z
Outside North Carolina, for context: Freeze Warning: Wayne; Fayette; Union; Franklin; Ripley; Dearborn; Ohio; Switzerland; Carroll; Gallatin; Boone; Kenton; Campbell; Owen; Grant; Pendleton; Bracken; Robertson; Mason; Lewis; Hardin; Mercer; Auglaize; Darke; Shelby; Logan; Union; Delaware; Miami; Champaign; Clark; Madison; Franklin; Licking; Preble; Montgomery; Greene; Fayette; Pickaway; Fairfield; Butler; Warren; Clinton; Ross; Hocking; Hamilton; Clermont; Brown; Highland; Adams; Pike; Scioto, until 18 Oct 13:00Z
Outside North Carolina, for context: Freeze Warning: Clinton; Howard; Boone; Tipton; Hamilton; Madison; Delaware; Randolph; Hancock; Henry; Shelby; Rush; Decatur; Montgomery; Hendricks, until 18 Oct 13:00Z
Outside North Carolina, for context: Freeze Warning: Fleming; Montgomery; Bath; Rowan, until 18 Oct 13:00Z
Outside North Carolina, for context: Freeze Warning: Scott; Harrison; Fayette; Bourbon; Nicholas; Clark, until 18 Oct 13:00Z
Outside North Carolina, for context: Freeze Warning: Greenup; Carter; Boyd; Lawrence; Perry; Morgan; Athens; Washington; Jackson; Vinton; Meigs; Gallia; Lawrence; Dickenson; Buchanan; Wayne; Cabell; Mason; Jackson; Wood; Pleasants; Tyler; Lincoln; Putnam; Kanawha; Roane; Wirt; Calhoun; Ritchie; Doddridge; Mingo; Logan; Boone; Clay; Braxton; Gilmer; Lewis; Harrison; Taylor; McDowell; Wyoming; Upshur; Barbour; Northwest Raleigh; Southeast Raleigh; Northwest Fayette; Southeast Fayette; Northwest Nicholas; Southeast Nicholas; Northwest Webster; Southeast Webster; Northwest Pocahontas; Southeast Pocahontas; Northwest Randolph; Southeast Randolph, until 18 Oct 13:00Z

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Saturday briefing for North Carolina

Highest anywhere in North Carolina: no risk area

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

The highest category anywhere in the state, from its outline; not every point in it.

When: Outlook valid 01:00Z to 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive.
Prepare: A warning is in force here: follow its instructions in Current alerts first.
Rain and rivers: Expected rain: 0.5 in or more at its highest in North Carolina, in WPC’s forecast for the 24 hours 00:00Z to 18 Oct 00:00Z. An amount for the area its contour covers, not a total for any one street.
Rain that fell: 0.75 to 1 in at its highest in North Carolina, in the 24 hours to 05:00Z, by MRMS’s radar estimate over a grid about 5 km across: a measurement of the past, not corrected to rain gauges.
Rivers: 4 gauges in flood in North Carolina, by NWS’s lists read 05:35Z. Moderate flooding Atlantic Coast at Duck (in MLLW), NC. Not flooding now: observed below action stage (where officials start to act), or not reporting. Listed for its forecast. Forecast issued 16 Oct 18:28Z · crest 6.1 ft at 19 Oct 17:00Z: moderate flooding. And 3 more. A gauge measures its river at that spot, not whether a road or a neighbourhood floods.
Three sources, each its own window. None is a chance of flash flooding, which is WPC’s outlook above; a flash flood is a warning’s. Gauges in the Live tracker

Official discussion

WPC’s discussion covers the whole country, not North Carolina alone.

WPC Excessive Rainfall Discussion, Day 1, issued 00:58Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

Convection has generally peaked across FL, with the coverage of
heavy rainfall expected to be on the decline overnight. A
localized urban flash flood risk may continue for a few more hours
across portions of the southeast coast of FL where slow moving
cells could drop 2-3" of rain in an hour. Coastal convergence, and
outflow driven convergence from the convection over the center of
state, are allowing for some modest expansion of these slow moving
cells. This activity should also tend to weaken in intensity within
a few hours.

Chenard

WPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

The chance that rainfall exceeds flash flood guidance within 40 km (25 miles) of a point during the valid period, as WPC defines its categories. Marginal is at least 5%, Slight 15%, Moderate 40% and High 70%. WPC’s categories are separate from SPC’s severe-storm categories, and an outlook category is not a warning: a Flash Flood Warning means flooding is happening or imminent. WPC’s definitions.

Coming days · North Carolina

2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-10-18Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Severe storms

SPC’s outlook is not reported. SPC’s convective outlook, on its own scale.

View severe outlook

River flooding

4 gauges in flood in North Carolina, observed or forecast.

Moderate flooding Atlantic Coast at Duck (in MLLW), NC (forecast)
Minor flooding Atlantic Coast at Beaufort Marine Lab (in MLLW), NC (forecast)
Minor flooding Pamlico Sound at Coast Guard Hatteras (in MLLW), NC (forecast)

And one more gauge in flood.

A gauge measures its river at that spot; it does not say whether a particular road or neighbourhood floods. Flash flooding is in the warnings.

Gauges in the Live tracker

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 16 Oct – 12Z 17 Oct

0 tornado · 0 wind · 0 hail in North Carolina

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms. None reported is not proof that nothing happened.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions in North Carolina. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings in North Carolina

2 warnings touching North Carolina

2 warnings touch North Carolina, most urgent first. A warning across a state line is counted here and in the other state.

NWS alerts checked 05:38Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 04:39Z: no change in the warnings.

Warnings 2

Freeze Avery; Madison; Yancey; Mitchell; Swain; Haywood; Buncombe; Graham; Northern Jackson; Macon; Southern Jackson until 18 Oct 13:00Z Track: Freeze Warning, Avery; Madison; Yancey; Mitchell; Swain; Haywood; Buncombe; Graham; Northern Jackson; Macon; Southern Jackson
Freeze Ashe; Watauga; Tazewell; Smyth; Bland; Wythe; Grayson; Mercer; Summers; Monroe; Eastern Greenbrier; Western Greenbrier; Alleghany; Giles; Pulaski; Montgomery; Carroll; Floyd; Craig; Alleghany; Bath until 18 Oct 13:00Z crosses North Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia Track: Freeze Warning, Ashe; Watauga; Tazewell; Smyth; Bland; Wythe; Grayson; Mercer; Summers; Monroe; Eastern Greenbrier; Western Greenbrier; Alleghany; Giles; Pulaski; Montgomery; Carroll; Floyd; Craig; Alleghany; Bath

All 2 warnings touching North Carolina, with their full text, in the Live tracker

69 warnings elsewhere in the country: the national list. Track North Carolina live

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

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