Weather Center: Florida

Current alerts

2 flood warnings touch Florida. 2 river flood warnings (touching Florida)

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NWS alerts checked 04:02Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:50Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 17:24Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 04:02Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 04:00Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:56Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / WPC selected forecast: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 04:02Z.

WPC selected forecast: Feed current; checked 04:00Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, Saturday 17 Oct

Source: WPC

Forecast: WPC’s scale

1 · Marginal highest in the state

View scale

1 · Marginal
2 · Slight (not outlined)
3 · Moderate (not outlined)
4 · High (not outlined)

In force now

Flood Warning 2
Red Flag Warning outside Florida

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 01:00Z to 12:00Z, issued 00:56Z · Data: NOAA/WPC. Warnings and watches are as of 04:02Z (now), not for the outlook’s period.

Everything on the map, as a list

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: Marginal
Flood Warning: Lake and Volusia counties, FL, until 16:00Z
Flood Warning: Sarasota County, FL, until 18 Oct 12:00Z
Outside Florida, for context: Flood Warning: Brantley County, GA, until 18 Oct 01:30Z
Outside Florida, for context: Red Flag Warning: Ashley; Chicot; Morehouse; West Carroll; East Carroll; Richland; Madison; Franklin; Catahoula; Tensas; Concordia; Bolivar; Sunflower; Leflore; Grenada; Carroll; Montgomery; Webster; Clay; Lowndes; Choctaw; Oktibbeha; Washington; Humphreys; Holmes; Attala; Winston; Noxubee; Issaquena; Sharkey; Yazoo; Madison; Leake; Neshoba; Kemper; Warren; Hinds; Rankin; Scott; Newton; Lauderdale; Claiborne; Copiah; Simpson; Smith; Jasper; Clarke; Jefferson; Adams; Franklin; Lincoln; Lawrence; Jefferson Davis; Covington; Jones; Marion; Lamar; Forrest, until 18 Oct 00:00Z
Outside Florida, for context: Red Flag Warning: Wayne; Perry; Greene; Stone; George, until 18 Oct 00:00Z
Outside Florida, for context: Red Flag Warning: Pointe Coupee; West Feliciana; East Feliciana; St. Helena; Washington; Iberville; West Baton Rouge; East Baton Rouge; Assumption; St. James; Northern Tangipahoa; Southeast St. Tammany; Northern St. Tammany; Southwestern St. Tammany; Central Tangipahoa; Lower Tangipahoa; Northern Livingston; Southern Livingston; Western Ascension; Eastern Ascension; Wilkinson; Amite; Pike; Walthall; Pearl River; Hancock; Harrison; Jackson, until 18 Oct 01:00Z

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Saturday briefing for Florida

Highest anywhere in Florida: Marginal (1 of 4)

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

WPC: “Isolated flash floods possible, mainly where heavy rain runs off quickly.” WPC’s definitions

The highest category anywhere in the state, from its outline; not every point in it.

Where

Florida is touched by marginal (highest first). These are the categories anywhere in the state, not a reading for every point in it.

When

Local flash-flood timing is not available from this outlook. WPC’s summary is written for the whole country: the national discussion.

Outlook valid 01:00Z to 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive.

Main hazards

Flash flooding: Marginal, at least a 5% chance within 40 km (25 mi) of a point. Isolated flash floods possible, mainly where heavy rain runs off quickly.

Prepare

A warning is in force here: follow its instructions in Current alerts first.

There is no safe place outside when thunderstorms are in the area. … When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors. NWS
Do NOT drive into flooded roadways or around a barricade; Turn Around, Don't Drown! NWS

In the National Weather Service’s words, from weather.gov.

Rain and rivers

Expected rain: 3 in or more at its highest in Florida, in WPC’s forecast for the 24 hours 00:00Z to 18 Oct 00:00Z. An amount for the area its contour covers, not a total for any one street.
Rain that fell: 4 to 6 in at its highest in Florida, in the 24 hours to 03:00Z, by MRMS’s radar estimate over a grid about 5 km across: a measurement of the past, not corrected to rain gauges.
Rivers: 3 gauges in flood in Florida, by NWS’s lists read 03:55Z. Major flooding Navarre Beach Gulf of America (In MHHW), FL. Observed 22.46 ft at 01:54Z: major flooding. No forecast at action stage or above. And 2 more. A gauge measures its river at that spot, not whether a road or a neighbourhood floods.

Three sources, each its own window. None is a chance of flash flooding, which is WPC’s outlook above; a flash flood is a warning’s. Gauges in the Live tracker

Official discussion

WPC’s discussion covers the whole country, not Florida alone.

WPC Excessive Rainfall Discussion, Day 1, issued 00:58Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

Convection has generally peaked across FL, with the coverage of
heavy rainfall expected to be on the decline overnight. A
localized urban flash flood risk may continue for a few more hours
across portions of the southeast coast of FL where slow moving
cells could drop 2-3" of rain in an hour. Coastal convergence, and
outflow driven convergence from the convection over the center of
state, are allowing for some modest expansion of these slow moving
cells. This activity should also tend to weaken in intensity within
a few hours.

Chenard

WPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

The chance that rainfall exceeds flash flood guidance within 40 km (25 miles) of a point during the valid period, as WPC defines its categories. Marginal is at least 5%, Slight 15%, Moderate 40% and High 70%. WPC’s categories are separate from SPC’s severe-storm categories, and an outlook category is not a warning: a Flash Flood Warning means flooding is happening or imminent. WPC’s definitions.

Coming days · Florida

2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)2026-10-18Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Severe storms

General thunderstorms at its highest nationally. SPC’s convective outlook, on its own scale.

View severe outlook

River flooding

3 gauges in flood in Florida, observed or forecast.

Major flooding Navarre Beach Gulf of America (In MHHW), FL (observed)
Moderate flooding St. Johns River at Astor, FL (forecast)
Minor flooding Myakka River at Myakka River State Park, FL (observed)

A gauge measures its river at that spot; it does not say whether a particular road or neighbourhood floods. Flash flooding is in the warnings.

Gauges in the Live tracker

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 16 Oct – 12Z 17 Oct

0 tornado · 0 wind · 0 hail in Florida

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms. None reported is not proof that nothing happened.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions in Florida. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings in Florida

2 warnings touching Florida

2 warnings touch Florida, most urgent first. A warning across a state line is counted here and in the other state.

NWS alerts checked 04:02Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 03:03Z: no change in the warnings.

Warnings 2

Flood Lake and Volusia counties, FL until 16:00Z Track: Flood Warning, Lake and Volusia counties, FL
Flood Sarasota County, FL until 18 Oct 12:00Z Track: Flood Warning, Sarasota County, FL

All 2 warnings touching Florida, with their full text, in the Live tracker

56 warnings elsewhere in the country: the national list. Track Florida live

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

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