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Tropical Depression Thirtyone

Tropical Depression 29 mph (25 kt) · 1007 hPa · NW at 21 mph (18 kt)

JTWC Warning 1 · 06:00Z

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JTWC forecast for Tropical Depression Thirtyone, Warning 1; rendered by MaverickWX

Published advisory track · Warning 1

Observed imagery loads separately from the advisory. The base map is not observed satellite imagery.

ⓘ About this map

JTWC does not publish an NHC cone.

Basemap

MaverickWX map · Data: JTWC · not an official graphic

Change time or forecast product

Recorded weather · gaps are marked. Coverage begins with recording activation.

Live sources keep independent clocks.

Replay coverage and interpretation

Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.

Current GLM density, velocity and specialist layers are hidden during replay. Snow uses retained footprint metadata with unverified pixel time. Forecast uses one pinned issuance/run and exact valid time.

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Choose Forecast for a pinned issuance and valid time.

Analysis

Area, source times and interpretation

Current cached context, independently dated. Regional reference: MP; a reference within a wider monitoring area does not replace the complete warning geography. This section remains separate from the historical replay cursor and official cyclone forecast. Use Forecast to pin a retained model package.

Soundings: what weather balloons measured

SPC’s skew-T diagram and hodograph of the sounding at Valley, NE (OAX), 00Z. Its levels are in the table below. — Observed Sounding at Valley, NE (OAX), for 00:00Z (10 h 43 min ago). SPC’s graphic; the values in its panels (CAPE, shear, the indices) are SPC’s computations from these levels. Data: NOAA/SPC.

A balloon launched about an hour before the time named, measuring as it rose and drifted with the wind: the atmosphere above one place, at one time. Model soundings, which are forecasts, are not shown here.

The levels this sounding was drawn from (54)

Valley, NE (OAX): the surface first, then up through the atmosphere. Temperature and dew point in °C, as measured.
Pressure	Height	Temperature	Dew point	Wind
978 mb	350 m	7.0	3.4	355° 12 kt
947 mb	610 m	4.1	1.6	345° 21 kt
925 mb	804 m	2.2	0.6	350° 19 kt
912 mb	914 m	1.3	0.2	350° 18 kt
892 mb	1097 m	-0.1	-0.4	—
879 mb	1219 m	0.7	-2.2	345° 20 kt
850 mb	1488 m	6.2	-7.8	340° 18 kt
831 mb	1673 m	6.0	-14.0	—
816 mb	1822 m	6.4	-21.6	—
803 mb	1953 m	5.8	-21.2	—
790 mb	2086 m	6.2	-16.8	—
757 mb	2438 m	4.3	-19.5	345° 17 kt
738 mb	2640 m	3.2	-18.8	—
712 mb	2929 m	1.6	-17.4	—
702 mb	3048 m	1.1	-18.8	340° 23 kt
700 mb	3066 m	1.0	-19.0	340° 24 kt
675 mb	3353 m	-0.7	-25.3	355° 21 kt
658 mb	3561 m	-1.9	-29.9	—
625 mb	3962 m	-4.9	-28.3	025° 29 kt
601 mb	4267 m	-7.2	-27.1	020° 26 kt
578 mb	4572 m	-9.5	-25.9	020° 30 kt
557 mb	4862 m	-11.7	-24.7	—
534 mb	5182 m	-14.2	-29.1	025° 28 kt
513 mb	5486 m	-16.5	-33.4	015° 28 kt
502 mb	5650 m	-17.7	-35.7	—
500 mb	5680 m	-17.9	-35.9	025° 25 kt
477 mb	6029 m	-20.7	-38.7	—
453 mb	6401 m	-24.2	-39.3	045° 30 kt
435 mb	6706 m	-26.6	-41.9	035° 28 kt
401 mb	7282 m	-30.9	-46.9	—
400 mb	7300 m	-31.1	-47.1	015° 20 kt
382 mb	7620 m	-33.7	-46.8	015° 16 kt
366 mb	7925 m	-36.1	-46.5	000° 21 kt
352 mb	8194 m	-38.3	-46.3	—
335 mb	8534 m	-40.3	-49.9	005° 19 kt
320 mb	8839 m	-42.2	-53.1	340° 16 kt
310 mb	9060 m	-43.5	-55.5	—
300 mb	9280 m	-45.5	-56.5	315° 12 kt
282 mb	9689 m	-48.5	-55.5	—
267 mb	10058 m	-51.0	-58.0	320° 20 kt
250 mb	10470 m	-54.5	-60.5	320° 20 kt
230 mb	10998 m	-58.9	-63.9	—
220 mb	11278 m	-58.0	-64.3	315° 16 kt
210 mb	11582 m	-56.4	-64.5	310° 18 kt
200 mb	11880 m	-54.9	-63.9	275° 19 kt
184 mb	12412 m	-56.1	-67.1	—
173 mb	12802 m	-54.8	-67.4	280° 33 kt
157 mb	13411 m	-54.7	-69.6	285° 30 kt
150 mb	13720 m	-55.1	-71.1	270° 25 kt
137 mb	14297 m	-56.7	-74.7	—
124 mb	14935 m	-58.2	-78.2	275° 28 kt
112 mb	15545 m	-57.1	-79.1	275° 31 kt
102 mb	16154 m	-59.2	-82.9	280° 35 kt
100 mb	16280 m	-59.7	-83.7	280° 31 kt

Every station with a sounding (77)

SPC observed soundings checked 10:30Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

Impacts

Monitoring: MP

Coastal alertsLocal national warning authorities apply Flooding rainOfficial rainfall context and coverage Storm surgeAvailability and coastal-only product limits Warnings in monitored area0 severe/flash-flood warnings in the named monitoring area · source current

Official forecast table

Forecast points

JTWC Warning 1 · advisory 06:00Z · forecast cycle 06:00Z. Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.

Published official forecast; no interpolated positions or winds
Valid time / lead	Position	Classification	Sustained wind
18:00Z +12 h from forecast cycle	19.1°N, 145.9°E	Tropical storm	40 mph (35 kt)
7 Nov 06:00Z +24 h from forecast cycle	20.3°N, 143.0°E	Tropical storm	52 mph (45 kt)
7 Nov 18:00Z +36 h from forecast cycle	21.3°N, 140.3°E	Tropical storm	63 mph (55 kt)
8 Nov 06:00Z +48 h from forecast cycle	22.1°N, 137.3°E	Typhoon	81 mph (70 kt)
8 Nov 18:00Z +60 h from forecast cycle	22.7°N, 135.0°E	Typhoon	104 mph (90 kt)
9 Nov 06:00Z +72 h from forecast cycle	23.3°N, 134.1°E	Typhoon	115 mph (100 kt)
10 Nov 06:00Z +96 h from forecast cycle	23.8°N, 136.1°E	Typhoon	109 mph (95 kt)
11 Nov 06:00Z +120 h from forecast cycle	25.0°N, 140.2°E	Typhoon	86 mph (75 kt)

Advisory history and records

Advisory history

Return to latest advisory

Each entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.

Advisory history; retained records only
Official issuance	Revision kind	Record
JTWC Warning 1 · 06:00Z	first	Snapshot 858bb03c · Selected

Monitoring geography

Area: U.S. territories JTWC’s forecast track passes within 300 nm of, Warning 1: Northern Mariana Islands (NWS states: MP)
JTWC issues no cone and no coastal segments, so the area is the territories its track reaches.
Hazards: Tornado, severe thunderstorm, flash flood, river flood, areal flood, coastal flood, tropical and other warnings, watches and advisories, and the forecasts for them
Window: In force now, with this warning’s forecast
Made by: JTWC’s own products, as this site’s pipeline published them, read again with each new warning. Watch another area

The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.

Map

This map draws the contiguous United States, and Northern Mariana Islands is beyond it. What is in force there is listed under “In force in this area”.

All published products and source descriptions

Forecast track

The official forecast track, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 1 (06:00Z). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.

Intensity forecast

The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 1 (06:00Z). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.

Satellite

The storm’s page shows it on NASA GIBS (NOAA GOES, JMA Himawari)’s imagery, loaded by your browser. Himawari at 8° from the storm's meridian.

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Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.

Model guidance

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast for Tropical Depression Thirtyone, JTWC Warning 1

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 1 (06:00Z). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.

SPC Day 1 outlook

General Thunderstorms Risk
Marginal Risk

SPC’s Day 1 categorical outlook, valid 12:00Z to 7 Nov 12:00Z, issued 05:53Z. SPC’s categories, as drawn. Data: NOAA/SPC.

Watches

No tornado or severe thunderstorm watch in force in this area.

SPC’s watches, by number, matched by the counties they list. Data: NOAA/SPC.

Mesoscale discussions

No mesoscale discussion reaches this area.

SPC’s mesoscale discussions whose outline reaches the area. Data: NOAA/SPC.

Storm ingredients

SPC’s hourly mesoanalysis, observed soundings and model guidance for the area, on the Analysis tab with its own clocks.

Open the Analysis tab

Drawn by the Analysis tab’s own renderer. Data: NOAA/SPC, NOAA/NCEP.

Flash-flood risk, Day 1

Marginal
Marginal
Slight

WPC’s excessive rainfall outlook, 12:00Z to 7 Nov 12:00Z, issued 07:43Z: a chance of flash flooding, in four categories. Data: NOAA/WPC.

River gauges in flood

No river, coastal or lake gauge in this area is in flood, observed or forecast.

NWS’s gauges at flood stage or above in the area, worst first, each with its forecast hydrograph on Rain & rivers. Data: NOAA/NWPS.

Rain expected and rain that fell

WPC’s rain forecast and MRMS’s radar estimate of the rain that fell, on the Briefing’s map for the area.

Open Rain & rivers

Data: NOAA/WPC, NOAA/NSSL MRMS.

Radar

NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.

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Drawn live: if the radar fails, nothing older is shown in its place.

My places

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Details

JTWC Warning 1 · 06:00Z

Center position: 18.0°N, 149.0°E
Minimum pressure: 1007 hPa
Maximum sustained wind: 29 mph (25 kt)
Movement: NW at 21 mph (18 kt)
Since the advisory compared: Comparison unavailable

Read official warning (JTWC) ↗

Forecast cycle 06:00Z. Center position belongs to the official state’s time, not imagery time.

Map layers

Lightning activity — GOES GLM

Public event region Aggregation interval Show density on map

Cached lightning observations have not loaded. An empty map is not zero lightning.

Coverage and interpretation

Total lightning, including in-cloud activity. Not ground-strike locations or a safe-to-go-outside signal.

Cached lightning source details and text readings

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Advisory comparison

Comparison unavailable: no different, earlier retained advisory was selected or published.

What changed, last 60 minutes

record from 10:05Z

Nothing has changed since this display’s record began, 10:05Z.

Alerts in this area

No warning, watch or advisory for these hazards is in force in this area.

NWS’s alerts checked 10:43Z: a successful check, so this is none in force, not “can’t tell”.

U.S. territories JTWC’s forecast track passes within 300 nm of, Warning 1: Northern Mariana Islands. Current geographical context; these alerts are not attributed to the cyclone.

Data coverage

JTWC has no NHC cone, NHC wind probabilities or NHC civil coastal warnings. Local national services remain the warning authorities.

Geographic context: Natural Earth boundaries and representative place labels. Radar coverage is limited offshore. Satellite pixels keep their source palette and actual observation time. Missing imagery is not clear weather.

Sources

JTWC warning, as published checked 10:42Z
NWS warnings and SPC watches checked 10:43Z
NWS watches and advisories checked 10:43Z
SPC mesoscale discussions checked 10:43Z
SPC Day 1 outlook checked 10:40Z
WPC excessive rainfall checked 10:40Z
NWPS river gauges checked 10:35Z
Radar live tiles, no last-good copy

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

0AlertsTropical Depression Thirtyone

No alerts in its area · 10:43Z

10:43Z