Forecast track
The official forecast track, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 1 (). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.
STORM MODEWeather tracking workspace
Tropical Depression Thirtyone
Current advisory context · Tropical Depression 29 mph (25 kt) · 1007 hPa · NW at 21 mph (18 kt)
JTWC Warning 1 ·
Latest advisory
Published advisory track · Warning 1
Observed imagery loads separately from the advisory. The base map is not observed satellite imagery.
ⓘ About this map
JTWC does not publish an NHC cone.
Basemap
MaverickWX map · Data: JTWC · not an official graphic
Recorded weather · gaps are marked. Coverage begins with recording activation.
Live sources keep independent clocks.
Replay coverage and interpretation
Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.
Current GLM density, velocity and specialist layers are hidden during replay. Snow uses retained footprint metadata with unverified pixel time. Forecast uses one pinned issuance/run and exact valid time.
No observed replay frame displayed.
Open the complete replay reader (works without scripting or WebGL)Choose Forecast for a pinned issuance and valid time.
Analysis
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Tropical
TrackImpactsModel guidanceAdvisory historyCurrent weather
ReportsAnalysisSatelliteRadarObservations
Coastal observationsRain and flooding
Flash-flood risk, Day 1River gauges in floodRain expected and rain that fellAll products · 3 more
Severe storms
SPC Day 1 outlookWatchesMesoscale discussionsNo product matches. Try a hazard or source name.
Analysis
Area, source times and interpretation
Current cached context, independently dated. Regional reference: MP; a reference within a wider monitoring area does not replace the complete warning geography. This section remains separate from the historical replay cursor and official cyclone forecast. Use Forecast to pin a retained model package.
Soundings: what weather balloons measured
A balloon launched about an hour before the time named, measuring as it rose and drifted with the wind: the atmosphere above one place, at one time. Model soundings, which are forecasts, are not shown here.
The levels this sounding was drawn from (58)
| Pressure | Height | Temperature | Dew point | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1012 mb | 15 m | 24.2 | 20.5 | 160° 3 kt |
| 1000 mb | 118 m | 22.8 | 20.4 | 140° 10 kt |
| 982 mb | 277 m | 22.2 | 19.0 | — |
| 961 mb | 465 m | 21.4 | 17.2 | — |
| 945 mb | 610 m | 20.9 | 16.4 | 185° 10 kt |
| 927 mb | 777 m | 20.4 | 15.4 | — |
| 925 mb | 796 m | 20.2 | 15.2 | 180° 13 kt |
| 912 mb | 914 m | 19.8 | 12.2 | 195° 12 kt |
| 891 mb | 1119 m | 18.2 | 14.6 | — |
| 881 mb | 1219 m | 17.6 | 14.2 | 185° 4 kt |
| 850 mb | 1522 m | 15.6 | 13.0 | 235° 7 kt |
| 820 mb | 1829 m | 13.9 | 11.7 | 240° 11 kt |
| 799 mb | 2045 m | 12.6 | 9.7 | — |
| 786 mb | 2183 m | 12.4 | 7.4 | — |
| 766 mb | 2399 m | 11.4 | 6.4 | — |
| 735 mb | 2743 m | 9.5 | 6.9 | 215° 9 kt |
| 720 mb | 2915 m | 9.0 | 4.2 | — |
| 709 mb | 3048 m | 9.0 | 1.8 | 210° 14 kt |
| 700 mb | 3148 m | 8.4 | 3.4 | 220° 13 kt |
| 683 mb | 3353 m | 7.5 | -0.0 | 240° 12 kt |
| 659 mb | 3644 m | 5.4 | 1.6 | — |
| 634 mb | 3962 m | 2.9 | -0.5 | 225° 15 kt |
| 615 mb | 4204 m | 1.4 | -2.5 | — |
| 597 mb | 4442 m | -0.7 | -4.6 | — |
| 572 mb | 4782 m | -2.7 | -14.7 | — |
| 552 mb | 5064 m | -2.3 | -27.3 | — |
| 537 mb | 5281 m | -3.5 | -28.5 | — |
| 526 mb | 5444 m | -4.5 | -22.5 | — |
| 503 mb | 5791 m | -7.3 | -33.2 | 295° 17 kt |
| 500 mb | 5840 m | -7.7 | -34.7 | 280° 15 kt |
| 484 mb | 6096 m | -9.8 | -33.8 | 280° 13 kt |
| 465 mb | 6401 m | -12.5 | -31.9 | 300° 14 kt |
| 446 mb | 6706 m | -15.1 | -29.9 | 295° 18 kt |
| 436 mb | 6887 m | -16.7 | -28.7 | — |
| 423 mb | 7114 m | -18.1 | -32.1 | — |
| 406 mb | 7419 m | -19.1 | -38.1 | — |
| 400 mb | 7530 m | -20.1 | -38.1 | 285° 29 kt |
| 379 mb | 7925 m | -23.5 | -38.5 | 285° 31 kt |
| 364 mb | 8222 m | -26.1 | -41.1 | — |
| 349 mb | 8534 m | -28.4 | -43.4 | 285° 42 kt |
| 323 mb | 9075 m | -33.5 | -45.5 | — |
| 308 mb | 9407 m | -35.7 | -49.7 | — |
| 300 mb | 9590 m | -37.1 | -50.1 | 285° 30 kt |
| 283 mb | 9992 m | -40.3 | -48.3 | — |
| 273 mb | 10237 m | -42.3 | -51.3 | — |
| 256 mb | 10668 m | -44.9 | -55.8 | 290° 38 kt |
| 250 mb | 10830 m | -46.1 | -56.1 | 290° 43 kt |
| 234 mb | 11264 m | -49.7 | -55.7 | — |
| 212 mb | 11887 m | -54.4 | -59.3 | 300° 60 kt |
| 200 mb | 12270 m | -57.3 | -60.9 | 290° 75 kt |
| 184 mb | 12802 m | -60.5 | -64.6 | 295° 76 kt |
| 169 mb | 13317 m | -64.1 | -68.1 | — |
| 159 mb | 13688 m | -66.0 | -70.6 | 295° 85 kt |
| 150 mb | 14040 m | -66.5 | -71.5 | 295° 62 kt |
| 136 mb | 14630 m | -68.8 | -73.8 | 280° 58 kt |
| 125 mb | 15134 m | -71.3 | -76.3 | — |
| 114 mb | 15680 m | -71.1 | -77.1 | — |
| 100 mb | 16450 m | -73.7 | -79.7 | 285° 40 kt |
Every station with a sounding (77)
- Aberdeen, SD (ABR)
- ADN
- Albany, NY (ALB)
- Albuquerque, NM (ABQ)
- Amarillo, TX (AMA)
- Birmingham, AL (BMX)
- Bismarck, ND (BIS)
- Blacksburg, VA (RNK)
- Boise, ID (BOI)
- Brownsville, TX (BRO)
- Buffalo, NY (BUF)
- Cape Canaveral, FL (XMR)
- Caribou, ME (CAR)
- Chanhassen, MN (MPX)
- Charleston, SC (CHS)
- Chihuahua, Mexico (76225)
- Corpus Christi, TX (CRP)
- Davenport, IA (DVN)
- Del Rio, TX (DRT)
- Dodge City, KS (DDC)
- Elko, NV (LKN)
- Flagstaff, AZ (FGZ)
- Fort Worth, TX (FWD)
- Gaylord, MI (APX)
- Glasgow, MT (GGW)
- Grand Junction, CO (GJT)
- Gray, ME (GYX)
- GRB
- Great Falls, MT (TFX)
- Greensboro, NC (GSO)
- International Falls, MN (INL)
- Jackson, MS (JAN)
- Jacksonville, FL (JAX)
- Key West, FL (KEY)
- La Paz, Mexico (76405)
- Lake Charles, LA (LCH)
- Lamont, OK (LMN)
- Las Vegas, NV (VEF)
- Lincoln, IL (ILX)
- Little Rock, AR (LZK)
- Maniwaki, Quebec (WMW)
- Mazatlán, Mexico (76458)
- Medford, OR (MFR)
- Miami, FL (MFL)
- Midland, TX (MAF)
- Nashville, TN (BNA)
- Newport, NC (MHX)
- Norman, OK (OUN)
- North Platte, NE (LBF)
- Oakland, CA (OAK)
- OYU
- Peachtree City, GA (FFC)
- Pickle Lake, Ontario (WPL)
- Pittsburgh, PA (PIT)
- Quillayute, WA (UIL)
- Rapid City, SD (UNR)
- Reno, NV (REV)
- Riverton, WY (RIW)
- Salem, OR (SLE)
- Salt Lake City, UT (SLC)
- San Diego, CA (NKX)
- Santa Teresa, NM (EPZ)
- Shreveport, LA (SHV)
- Slidell, LA (LIX)
- Spokane, WA (OTX)
- Springfield, MO (SGF)
- Sterling, VA (IAD)
- Tampa Bay, FL (TBW)
- Topeka, KS (TOP)
- Upton, NY (OKX)
- Valley, NE (OAX)
- Vandenberg, CA (VBG)
- White Lake, MI (DTX)
- Wilmington, OH (ILN)
- Yarmouth, Nova Scotia (YQI)
- YCX
- Zacatecas, Mexico (76526)
SPC observed soundings checked · Data: NOAA/SPC
Impacts
Monitoring: MPOfficial forecast table
Forecast points
JTWC Warning 1 · advisory · forecast cycle . Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.
| Valid time / lead | Position | Classification | Sustained wind |
|---|---|---|---|
+12 h from forecast cycle | 19.1°N, 145.9°E | Tropical storm | 40 mph (35 kt) |
+24 h from forecast cycle | 20.3°N, 143.0°E | Tropical storm | 52 mph (45 kt) |
+36 h from forecast cycle | 21.3°N, 140.3°E | Tropical storm | 63 mph (55 kt) |
+48 h from forecast cycle | 22.1°N, 137.3°E | Typhoon | 81 mph (70 kt) |
+60 h from forecast cycle | 22.7°N, 135.0°E | Typhoon | 104 mph (90 kt) |
+72 h from forecast cycle | 23.3°N, 134.1°E | Typhoon | 115 mph (100 kt) |
+96 h from forecast cycle | 23.8°N, 136.1°E | Typhoon | 109 mph (95 kt) |
+120 h from forecast cycle | 25.0°N, 140.2°E | Typhoon | 86 mph (75 kt) |
Advisory history and records
Advisory history
Return to latest advisoryEach entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.
| Official issuance | Revision kind | Record |
|---|---|---|
| JTWC Warning 1 · | first | Snapshot 858bb03c · Selected |
Monitoring geography
- Area
- U.S. territories JTWC’s forecast track passes within 300 nm of, Warning 1: Northern Mariana Islands (NWS states: MP)
JTWC issues no cone and no coastal segments, so the area is the territories its track reaches. - Hazards
- Tornado, severe thunderstorm, flash flood, river flood, areal flood, coastal flood, tropical and other warnings, watches and advisories, and the forecasts for them
- Window
- In force now, with this warning’s forecast
- Made by
- JTWC’s own products, as this site’s pipeline published them, read again with each new warning. Watch another area
The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.
Map
This map draws the contiguous United States, and Northern Mariana Islands is beyond it. What is in force there is listed under “In force in this area”.
All published products and source descriptions
Intensity forecast
The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 1 (). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.
Satellite
The storm’s page shows it on NASA GIBS (NOAA GOES, JMA Himawari)’s imagery, loaded by your browser. Himawari at 8° from the storm's meridian.
Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.
Model guidance
The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 1 (). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.
SPC Day 1 outlook
- General Thunderstorms Risk
- Marginal Risk
SPC’s Day 1 categorical outlook, valid to , issued . SPC’s categories, as drawn. Data: NOAA/SPC.
Watches
No tornado or severe thunderstorm watch in force in this area.
SPC’s watches, by number, matched by the counties they list. Data: NOAA/SPC.
Mesoscale discussions
No mesoscale discussion reaches this area.
SPC’s mesoscale discussions whose outline reaches the area. Data: NOAA/SPC.
Storm ingredients
SPC’s hourly mesoanalysis, observed soundings and model guidance for the area, on the Analysis tab with its own clocks.
Drawn by the Analysis tab’s own renderer. Data: NOAA/SPC, NOAA/NCEP.
Flash-flood risk, Day 1
- Marginal
- Marginal
- Slight
WPC’s excessive rainfall outlook, to , issued : a chance of flash flooding, in four categories. Data: NOAA/WPC.
River gauges in flood
No river, coastal or lake gauge in this area is in flood, observed or forecast.
NWS’s gauges at flood stage or above in the area, worst first, each with its forecast hydrograph on Rain & rivers. Data: NOAA/NWPS.
Rain expected and rain that fell
WPC’s rain forecast and MRMS’s radar estimate of the rain that fell, on the Briefing’s map for the area.
Data: NOAA/WPC, NOAA/NSSL MRMS.
Radar
NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.
Drawn live: if the radar fails, nothing older is shown in its place.
My places
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Alerts in this area
Area briefPeek viewNo alerts in its area ·