Forecast track
The official forecast track, drawn by this site from NHC’s Best track (). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.
STORM MODEWeather tracking workspace
Tropical Depression EP222026
Current advisory context · 30 kt · 35 mph · 1005 hPa
Storm Mode · NHC Best track ·
Latest published best-track state
Published advisory track · Best track
Observed imagery loads separately from the advisory. The base map is not observed satellite imagery.
The cone describes center uncertainty; impacts can extend outside it.
MaverickWX map · Data: NOAA/NHC · not an official graphic
Recorded weather · gaps are marked. Coverage begins with recording activation.
Live sources keep independent clocks.
Replay coverage and interpretation
Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.
Current GLM density, velocity and specialist layers are hidden during replay. Snow uses retained footprint metadata with unverified pixel time. Forecast uses one pinned issuance/run and exact valid time.
No observed replay frame displayed.
Open the complete replay reader (works without scripting or WebGL)Choose Forecast for a pinned issuance and valid time.
Analysis
Area, source times and interpretation
Current cached context, independently dated. Regional products keep their published footprint; they are not clipped or attributed to one storm. This section remains separate from the historical replay cursor and official cyclone forecast. Use Forecast to pin a retained model package.
Soundings: what weather balloons measured
A balloon launched about an hour before the time named, measuring as it rose and drifted with the wind: the atmosphere above one place, at one time. Model soundings, which are forecasts, are not shown here.
The levels this sounding was drawn from (60)
| Pressure | Height | Temperature | Dew point | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 832 mb | 1703 m | 19.2 | 2.2 | 095° 6 kt |
| 815 mb | 1879 m | 17.0 | 2.0 | 085° 7 kt |
| 798 mb | 2058 m | 14.8 | 1.8 | — |
| 784 mb | 2207 m | 14.0 | 1.0 | — |
| 753 mb | 2542 m | 11.2 | -0.3 | 050° 5 kt |
| 739 mb | 2698 m | 9.9 | -1.0 | 070° 3 kt |
| 722 mb | 2891 m | 8.3 | -1.8 | 155° 1 kt |
| 711 mb | 3019 m | 7.3 | -2.3 | 210° 4 kt |
| 701 mb | 3136 m | 6.3 | -2.8 | 195° 9 kt |
| 700 mb | 3148 m | 6.2 | -2.8 | 195° 9 kt |
| 681 mb | 3371 m | 4.2 | -3.8 | 205° 11 kt |
| 671 mb | 3492 m | 3.2 | -4.4 | 200° 12 kt |
| 643 mb | 3834 m | 0.2 | -5.8 | 220° 8 kt |
| 624 mb | 4073 m | -1.8 | -6.7 | 255° 9 kt |
| 614 mb | 4202 m | -2.9 | -7.2 | 240° 10 kt |
| 600 mb | 4385 m | -4.5 | -8.5 | — |
| 583 mb | 4610 m | -6.3 | -9.9 | — |
| 566 mb | 4840 m | -8.1 | -11.9 | 245° 9 kt |
| 555 mb | 4992 m | -9.3 | -13.3 | — |
| 527 mb | 5389 m | -12.5 | -16.4 | 245° 11 kt |
| 512 mb | 5609 m | -12.2 | -24.8 | 255° 11 kt |
| 501 mb | 5775 m | -12.7 | -27.7 | — |
| 500 mb | 5790 m | -12.9 | -27.9 | 255° 18 kt |
| 488 mb | 5975 m | -13.5 | -29.5 | — |
| 465 mb | 6342 m | -14.3 | -35.3 | 240° 18 kt |
| 451 mb | 6575 m | -15.3 | -38.3 | 235° 21 kt |
| 421 mb | 7089 m | -19.3 | -38.5 | 235° 19 kt |
| 409 mb | 7304 m | -21.0 | -39.0 | 220° 19 kt |
| 400 mb | 7470 m | -22.3 | -39.3 | 220° 18 kt |
| 386 mb | 7729 m | -24.7 | -39.7 | 225° 17 kt |
| 372 mb | 7997 m | -27.1 | -40.1 | — |
| 359 mb | 8248 m | -29.5 | -41.8 | 245° 20 kt |
| 336 mb | 8714 m | -33.9 | -44.9 | 240° 19 kt |
| 321 mb | 9036 m | -36.9 | -47.0 | 235° 20 kt |
| 300 mb | 9500 m | -41.1 | -50.1 | 250° 20 kt |
| 286 mb | 9824 m | -43.1 | -53.1 | 250° 26 kt |
| 276 mb | 10064 m | -42.5 | -54.5 | — |
| 263 mb | 10389 m | -43.3 | -58.3 | — |
| 252 mb | 10676 m | -44.5 | -59.5 | 250° 45 kt |
| 250 mb | 10730 m | -44.7 | -59.7 | 250° 46 kt |
| 239 mb | 11030 m | -45.9 | -60.9 | — |
| 211 mb | 11851 m | -49.2 | -64.8 | 245° 68 kt |
| 200 mb | 12200 m | -51.3 | -65.3 | 245° 67 kt |
| 186 mb | 12670 m | -53.3 | -67.3 | 240° 71 kt |
| 175 mb | 13061 m | -54.5 | -68.5 | — |
| 165 mb | 13437 m | -55.4 | -69.3 | 240° 61 kt |
| 155 mb | 13834 m | -58.1 | -71.1 | — |
| 150 mb | 14040 m | -59.3 | -72.3 | 235° 55 kt |
| 127 mb | 15074 m | -63.1 | -76.1 | 255° 46 kt |
| 116 mb | 15629 m | -64.5 | -76.5 | — |
| 106 mb | 16177 m | -66.9 | -78.9 | 240° 51 kt |
| 100 mb | 16530 m | -66.1 | -78.1 | 245° 37 kt |
| 90 mb | 17200 m | -67.5 | -78.5 | — |
| 79 mb | 17953 m | -65.7 | -77.7 | — |
| 69 mb | 18778 m | -64.0 | -77.0 | 285° 5 kt |
| 58 mb | 19847 m | -62.9 | -75.7 | 235° 26 kt |
| 37 mb | 22623 m | -59.8 | — | 345° 18 kt |
| 26 mb | 24828 m | -59.3 | — | 345° 1 kt |
| 16 mb | 27922 m | -53.3 | — | 010° 18 kt |
| 6 mb | 33947 m | -45.5 | — | — |
Every station with a sounding (76)
- Aberdeen, SD (ABR)
- ADN
- Albany, NY (ALB)
- Albuquerque, NM (ABQ)
- Amarillo, TX (AMA)
- Birmingham, AL (BMX)
- Bismarck, ND (BIS)
- Blacksburg, VA (RNK)
- Boise, ID (BOI)
- Brownsville, TX (BRO)
- Buffalo, NY (BUF)
- Cape Canaveral, FL (XMR)
- Caribou, ME (CAR)
- Chanhassen, MN (MPX)
- Charleston, SC (CHS)
- Chihuahua, Mexico (76225)
- Corpus Christi, TX (CRP)
- Davenport, IA (DVN)
- Del Rio, TX (DRT)
- Dodge City, KS (DDC)
- Elko, NV (LKN)
- Flagstaff, AZ (FGZ)
- Fort Worth, TX (FWD)
- Gaylord, MI (APX)
- Glasgow, MT (GGW)
- Grand Junction, CO (GJT)
- Gray, ME (GYX)
- GRB
- Great Falls, MT (TFX)
- Greensboro, NC (GSO)
- International Falls, MN (INL)
- Jackson, MS (JAN)
- Jacksonville, FL (JAX)
- Key West, FL (KEY)
- La Paz, Mexico (76405)
- Lake Charles, LA (LCH)
- Lamont, OK (LMN)
- Las Vegas, NV (VEF)
- Lincoln, IL (ILX)
- Little Rock, AR (LZK)
- Maniwaki, Quebec (WMW)
- Mazatlán, Mexico (76458)
- Medford, OR (MFR)
- Miami, FL (MFL)
- Midland, TX (MAF)
- Nashville, TN (BNA)
- Newport, NC (MHX)
- Norman, OK (OUN)
- North Platte, NE (LBF)
- Oakland, CA (OAK)
- OYU
- Peachtree City, GA (FFC)
- Pickle Lake, Ontario (WPL)
- Pittsburgh, PA (PIT)
- Quillayute, WA (UIL)
- Rapid City, SD (UNR)
- Reno, NV (REV)
- Riverton, WY (RIW)
- Salem, OR (SLE)
- Salt Lake City, UT (SLC)
- San Diego, CA (NKX)
- Santa Teresa, NM (EPZ)
- Shreveport, LA (SHV)
- Slidell, LA (LIX)
- Spokane, WA (OTX)
- Springfield, MO (SGF)
- Sterling, VA (IAD)
- Tampa Bay, FL (TBW)
- Topeka, KS (TOP)
- Upton, NY (OKX)
- Valley, NE (OAX)
- Vandenberg, CA (VBG)
- White Lake, MI (DTX)
- Wilmington, OH (ILN)
- Yarmouth, Nova Scotia (YQI)
- Zacatecas, Mexico (76526)
SPC observed soundings checked · Data: NOAA/SPC
Impacts
No supported U.S. monitoring areaCurrent warnings in the monitoring area
None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Best track. Current geographical context; these alerts are not attributed to the cyclone.
No U.S. area
No U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone. The storm’s own panels are shown, and no NWS alert is listed.
Official forecast table
Forecast points
NHC Best track · advisory · forecast cycle . Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.
| Valid time / lead | Position | Classification | Sustained wind |
|---|---|---|---|
+0 h from forecast cycle | 9.5°N, 99.0°W | tropical depression | 30 kt · 35 mph |
+3 h from forecast cycle | 9.5°N, 99.3°W | tropical depression | 30 kt · 35 mph |
+12 h from forecast cycle | 9.4°N, 100.1°W | tropical storm | 40 kt · 46 mph |
+24 h from forecast cycle | 9.7°N, 101.1°W | tropical storm | 55 kt · 63 mph |
+36 h from forecast cycle | 10.2°N, 102.0°W | hurricane | 70 kt · 81 mph |
+48 h from forecast cycle | 10.7°N, 102.6°W | hurricane | 85 kt · 98 mph |
+60 h from forecast cycle | 11.5°N, 103.2°W | hurricane | 100 kt · 115 mph |
+72 h from forecast cycle | 12.5°N, 103.6°W | hurricane | 95 kt · 109 mph |
+96 h from forecast cycle | 14.2°N, 104.4°W | hurricane | 90 kt · 104 mph |
+120 h from forecast cycle | 15.4°N, 105.2°W | hurricane | 85 kt · 98 mph |
Advisory history and records
Advisory history
Return to latest advisoryEach entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.
| Official issuance | Revision kind | Record |
|---|---|---|
| NHC Unnumbered state · | first | Snapshot f2228f08 · Selected |
Monitoring geography and current changes
- Area
- None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Best track
Coastal watches and warnings: none in a U.S. state · Cone: crosses no U.S. state - Hazards
- —
- Window
- In force now, with this advisory’s forecast
- Made by
- NHC’s own products, as this site’s pipeline published them, read again with each new advisory. Watch another area
The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.
All published products and source descriptions
Wind speed probabilities
| Place | 34 kt | 50 kt | 64 kt |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15n 105w | 70% | 40% | 23% |
| 10n 100w | 49% | 5% | — |
| Manzanillo | 15% | — | — |
| L Cardenas | 10% | — | — |
| Zihuatanejo | 7% | — | — |
| 10n 105w | 6% | — | — |
| 15n 100w | 5% | — | — |
| 15n 110w | 4% | — | — |
| Barra Navidad | 4% | — | — |
| Acapulco | 3% | — | — |
NHC’s chance of sustained wind of at least each speed at each place it lists, through ; the places with the highest chance of 34 kt first. Issued . Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s table.
NHC’s coastal watches and warnings
NHC has no coastal watch or warning in effect for this storm.
In NHC’s words, Best track, issued . The areas NHC names, in the United States and abroad; for a place outside the United States its national service is the warning authority. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s advisory.
Intensity forecast
The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from NHC’s Best track (). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.
Satellite
The storm’s page shows it on NASA GIBS (NOAA GOES, JMA Himawari)’s imagery, loaded by your browser. GOES-East at 24° from the storm's meridian.
Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.
Model guidance
The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from NHC’s Best track (). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.
Radar
NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.
Live tiles; the radar keeps no last-good copy.
Sources
NHC best track, as published checked
Radar live tiles, no last-good copy
No supported NWS monitoring area. Check local warning authorities.
Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.