Forecast track

The official forecast track, drawn by this site from NHC’s Advisory 26 (). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.
Current advisory context · 35 kt · 40 mph · 1004 hPa · N at 0 kt
Storm Mode · NHC Advisory 26 ·
Latest published advisory

Observed imagery loads separately from the advisory. The base map is not observed satellite imagery.
The cone describes center uncertainty; impacts can extend outside it.
Recorded weather · gaps are marked. Coverage begins with recording activation.
Live sources keep independent clocks.
Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.
Current GLM density, velocity and specialist layers are hidden during replay. Snow uses retained footprint metadata with unverified pixel time. Forecast uses one pinned issuance/run and exact valid time.
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Open the complete replay reader (works without scripting or WebGL)Choose Forecast for a pinned issuance and valid time.
Current cached context, independently dated. Regional products keep their published footprint; they are not clipped or attributed to one storm. This section remains separate from the historical replay cursor and official cyclone forecast. Use Forecast to pin a retained model package.

A balloon launched about an hour before the time named, measuring as it rose and drifted with the wind: the atmosphere above one place, at one time. Model soundings, which are forecasts, are not shown here.
| Pressure | Height | Temperature | Dew point | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1020 mb | 7 m | 26.4 | 18.4 | 025° 9 kt |
| 1010 mb | 95 m | 24.4 | 17.4 | — |
| 1000 mb | 184 m | 23.6 | 17.6 | 040° 16 kt |
| 986 mb | 305 m | 22.4 | 17.2 | 040° 14 kt |
| 969 mb | 458 m | 21.0 | 16.6 | — |
| 953 mb | 603 m | 20.2 | 15.7 | — |
| 927 mb | 841 m | 19.6 | 11.6 | — |
| 925 mb | 860 m | 19.6 | 11.6 | 045° 12 kt |
| 887 mb | 1219 m | 16.6 | 10.6 | 065° 3 kt |
| 859 mb | 1493 m | 14.4 | 9.8 | — |
| 850 mb | 1582 m | 14.2 | 9.4 | 115° 5 kt |
| 825 mb | 1829 m | 12.3 | 8.4 | 110° 6 kt |
| 815 mb | 1936 m | 11.4 | 7.9 | — |
| 796 mb | 2134 m | 9.7 | 8.6 | 105° 10 kt |
| 767 mb | 2438 m | 8.7 | 8.7 | 085° 14 kt |
| 757 mb | 2551 m | 8.2 | 8.2 | — |
| 746 mb | 2672 m | 11.8 | -29.2 | — |
| 731 mb | 2842 m | 12.2 | 4.2 | — |
| 713 mb | 3048 m | 10.6 | 3.7 | 040° 16 kt |
| 700 mb | 3204 m | 9.4 | 3.4 | 030° 12 kt |
| 689 mb | 3335 m | 9.8 | 0.8 | — |
| 663 mb | 3658 m | 7.5 | 1.2 | 000° 9 kt |
| 638 mb | 3962 m | 5.4 | 1.4 | 345° 11 kt |
| 615 mb | 4267 m | 3.7 | 0.2 | 010° 9 kt |
| 595 mb | 4536 m | 2.2 | -0.8 | — |
| 582 mb | 4714 m | 1.4 | -3.1 | — |
| 570 mb | 4877 m | 0.4 | -3.0 | 270° 5 kt |
| 556 mb | 5081 m | -0.3 | -4.2 | — |
| 531 mb | 5447 m | -3.3 | -5.3 | — |
| 515 mb | 5688 m | -4.5 | -9.0 | — |
| 500 mb | 5920 m | -6.1 | -8.2 | 265° 16 kt |
| 472 mb | 6369 m | -9.1 | -12.1 | — |
| 461 mb | 6551 m | -10.5 | -12.3 | — |
| 450 mb | 6737 m | -11.3 | -14.7 | — |
| 434 mb | 7010 m | -13.5 | -14.9 | 260° 15 kt |
| 417 mb | 7315 m | -15.4 | -18.0 | 255° 15 kt |
| 401 mb | 7620 m | -17.6 | -19.0 | 230° 16 kt |
| 400 mb | 7630 m | -17.7 | -19.1 | 235° 16 kt |
| 390 mb | 7819 m | -19.3 | -20.2 | — |
| 380 mb | 8012 m | -20.5 | -23.7 | — |
| 370 mb | 8209 m | -21.9 | -22.5 | — |
| 359 mb | 8432 m | -22.9 | -25.9 | — |
| 348 mb | 8659 m | -24.9 | -25.7 | — |
| 336 mb | 8914 m | -26.5 | -28.0 | — |
| 325 mb | 9144 m | -27.1 | -29.3 | 250° 25 kt |
| 310 mb | 9495 m | -28.3 | -34.3 | — |
| 300 mb | 9730 m | -29.5 | -36.5 | 260° 40 kt |
| 263 mb | 10652 m | -37.9 | -41.0 | — |
| 252 mb | 10946 m | -39.5 | -48.5 | — |
| 250 mb | 11000 m | -39.9 | -48.9 | 260° 45 kt |
| 240 mb | 11278 m | -41.9 | -49.6 | 260° 46 kt |
| 206 mb | 12296 m | -49.1 | -55.1 | — |
| 200 mb | 12490 m | -49.5 | -73.5 | 295° 31 kt |
| 181 mb | 13106 m | -54.4 | -75.6 | 300° 16 kt |
| 165 mb | 13716 m | -59.1 | -77.6 | 280° 27 kt |
| 151 mb | 14269 m | -63.5 | -79.5 | — |
| 150 mb | 14310 m | -63.9 | -78.9 | 285° 24 kt |
| 135 mb | 14935 m | -68.4 | -81.4 | 295° 27 kt |
| 117 mb | 15798 m | -72.7 | -83.7 | — |
| 104 mb | 16459 m | -76.0 | -85.3 | 265° 10 kt |
| 100 mb | 16710 m | -77.7 | -85.7 | 220° 11 kt |
SPC observed soundings checked · Data: NOAA/SPC
Forecast cycle . Center position belongs to the official state’s time, not imagery time.
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Search stays in this browser. A town point is not an address; no address-level surge is calculated.
Solid: Advisory 26 ·
Dashed: Best track ·
Solid: NHC Advisory 26 ·
Dashed: NHC Best track · . Comparison uses each record’s own geometry. A revision is not a landfall or impact prediction.
| Field | Selected issuance | Comparison issuance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maximum sustained wind | 35 kt · 40 mph | 40 kt · 46 mph | -5 kt |
| Minimum pressure | 1004 hPa | 1004 hPa | 0 hPa |
| Center position | 19.3°N, 107.9°W | 19.5°N, 107.9°W | Different observation times; not a forecast shift |
Forecast comparison unavailable: these records have no matching forecast valid times. No interpolation or six-hour step is assumed.
NHC/CPHC track, coastal alerts, probabilities and wind timing retain separate coverage and issuance.
Geographic context: Natural Earth boundaries and representative place labels. Radar coverage is limited offshore. Satellite pixels keep their source palette and actual observation time. Missing imagery is not clear weather.
No supported U.S. NWS monitoring area for this advisory. This does not mean no warnings worldwide.
Total lightning, including in-cloud activity. Not ground-strike locations or a safe-to-go-outside signal.
Cached lightning observations have not loaded. An empty map is not zero lightning.
Interactive layer controls load on this device. Published products remain available below.
None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Advisory 26. Current geographical context; these alerts are not attributed to the cyclone.
No U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone. The storm’s own panels are shown, and no NWS alert is listed.
NHC Advisory 26 · advisory · forecast cycle . Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.
| Valid time / lead | Position | Classification | Sustained wind |
|---|---|---|---|
+0 h from forecast cycle | 19.5°N, 107.9°W | tropical storm | 40 kt · 46 mph |
+3 h from forecast cycle | 19.3°N, 107.9°W | tropical storm | 35 kt · 40 mph |
+12 h from forecast cycle | 19.4°N, 108.3°W | tropical depression | 30 kt · 35 mph |
+24 h from forecast cycle | 19.5°N, 108.9°W | low | 30 kt · 35 mph |
+36 h from forecast cycle | 19.8°N, 109.3°W | low | 25 kt · 29 mph |
+48 h from forecast cycle | 20.2°N, 109.5°W | low | 25 kt · 29 mph |
Each entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.
The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.

The official forecast track, drawn by this site from NHC’s Advisory 26 (). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.
| Place | 34 kt | 50 kt | 64 kt |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20n 110w | 8% | — | — |
NHC’s chance of sustained wind of at least each speed at each place it lists, through ; the places with the highest chance of 34 kt first. Issued . Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s table.
NHC has no coastal watch or warning in effect for this storm.
In NHC’s words, Advisory 26, issued . The areas NHC names, in the United States and abroad; for a place outside the United States its national service is the warning authority. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s advisory.

The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from NHC’s Advisory 26 (). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.
The storm’s page shows it on NASA GIBS (NOAA GOES, JMA Himawari)’s imagery, loaded by your browser. GOES-West at 29° from the storm's meridian.
Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from NHC’s Advisory 26 (). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.
NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.
Live tiles; the radar keeps no last-good copy.
NHC advisory, as published checked
Radar live tiles, no last-good copy
Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.