Forecast track
The official forecast track, drawn by this site from NHC’s Advisory 26 (). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.
STORM MODEWeather tracking workspace
Tropical Storm Trudy
Current advisory context · 35 kt · 40 mph · 1004 hPa · N at 0 kt
Storm Mode · NHC Advisory 26 ·
Latest published advisory
Published advisory track · Advisory 26
Observed imagery loads separately from the advisory. The base map is not observed satellite imagery.
The cone describes center uncertainty; impacts can extend outside it.
MaverickWX map · Data: NOAA/NHC · not an official graphic
Recorded weather · gaps are marked. Coverage begins with recording activation.
Live sources keep independent clocks.
Replay coverage and interpretation
Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.
Current GLM density, velocity and specialist layers are hidden during replay. Snow uses retained footprint metadata with unverified pixel time. Forecast uses one pinned issuance/run and exact valid time.
No observed replay frame displayed.
Open the complete replay reader (works without scripting or WebGL)Choose Forecast for a pinned issuance and valid time.
Analysis
Current cached context, independently dated. Regional products keep their published footprint; they are not clipped or attributed to one storm. This section remains separate from the historical replay cursor and official cyclone forecast. Use Forecast to pin a retained model package.
Model guidance: what the models forecast
REFS · Rotating storms · initialized · valid
REFS / HRRR: feeds current
REFS: Feed current; checked .
HRRR: Feed current; checked .
Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.
Rotating storms
How many of the ensemble’s members grow a storm with a strongly rotating updraft near each point in the hour: the model’s sign of a supercell, which can bring tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind.
A forecast’s own uncertainty, not a forecast of coverage: REFS is a set of runs of NCEP’s RRFS model, each started a little differently, and the share is how many of them put the event near a point. 30% is three runs in ten. It is guidance forecasters weigh, not SPC’s outlook and not a warning.
Share of members
- 10–30%
- 30–50%
- 50–70%
- 70–90%
- 90% or more
- under 10%: not drawn
Highest anywhere in the hour: 79.5% of members.
Pre-operational: NCEP’s parallel REFS, which it plans to make operational on 3 November 2026 (Service Change Notice 26-48). Until then it may be late, missing or changed without notice.
Model, field & forecast hours
Retention & comparison limits
Only rolling current frames and limited previous copies are retained. Complete historical runs are not archived, so two-run comparison is unavailable. Only the published forecast hours are stepped; gaps are explicit. Rainfall uses WPC’s existing forecast, not an unprovided model rainfall field.
REFS (NOMADS) checked · Data: NOAA/NCEP
HRRR pictures (MAG) checked · Data: NOAA/NCEP
Impacts
No supported U.S. monitoring areaCurrent warnings in the monitoring area
None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Advisory 26. Current geographical context; these alerts are not attributed to the cyclone.
No U.S. area
No U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone. The storm’s own panels are shown, and no NWS alert is listed.
Official forecast table
Forecast points
NHC Advisory 26 · advisory · forecast cycle . Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.
| Valid time / lead | Position | Classification | Sustained wind |
|---|---|---|---|
+0 h from forecast cycle | 19.5°N, 107.9°W | tropical storm | 40 kt · 46 mph |
+3 h from forecast cycle | 19.3°N, 107.9°W | tropical storm | 35 kt · 40 mph |
+12 h from forecast cycle | 19.4°N, 108.3°W | tropical depression | 30 kt · 35 mph |
+24 h from forecast cycle | 19.5°N, 108.9°W | low | 30 kt · 35 mph |
+36 h from forecast cycle | 19.8°N, 109.3°W | low | 25 kt · 29 mph |
+48 h from forecast cycle | 20.2°N, 109.5°W | low | 25 kt · 29 mph |
Advisory history and records
Advisory history
Return to latest advisoryEach entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.
Monitoring geography and current changes
- Area
- None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Advisory 26
Coastal watches and warnings: none in a U.S. state · Cone: crosses no U.S. state - Hazards
- —
- Window
- In force now, with this advisory’s forecast
- Made by
- NHC’s own products, as this site’s pipeline published them, read again with each new advisory. Watch another area
The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.
All published products and source descriptions
Wind speed probabilities
| Place | 34 kt | 50 kt | 64 kt |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20n 110w | 8% | — | — |
NHC’s chance of sustained wind of at least each speed at each place it lists, through ; the places with the highest chance of 34 kt first. Issued . Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s table.
NHC’s coastal watches and warnings
NHC has no coastal watch or warning in effect for this storm.
In NHC’s words, Advisory 26, issued . The areas NHC names, in the United States and abroad; for a place outside the United States its national service is the warning authority. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s advisory.
Intensity forecast
The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from NHC’s Advisory 26 (). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.
Satellite
The storm’s page shows it on NASA GIBS (NOAA GOES, JMA Himawari)’s imagery, loaded by your browser. GOES-West at 29° from the storm's meridian.
Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.
Model guidance
The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from NHC’s Advisory 26 (). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.
Radar
NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.
Live tiles; the radar keeps no last-good copy.
Sources
NHC advisory, as published checked
Radar live tiles, no last-good copy
No supported NWS monitoring area. Check local warning authorities.
Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.