Forecast track
The official forecast track, drawn by this site from NHC’s Best track (). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.
Category 1 Hurricane Trudy
75 kt · 86 mph · 982 hPa · NNW at 4 kt
Storm Mode · NHC Best track ·
Latest published best-track state
Published advisory track · Best track
Observed imagery loads separately from the advisory. The base map is not observed satellite imagery.
The cone describes center uncertainty; impacts can extend outside it.
MaverickWX map · Data: NOAA/NHC · not an official graphic
Forecast positions are estimates, not observations.
Retained advisory records
Return to latest advisoryEach entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.
Advisory comparison details
Solid: NHC Best track ·
Dashed: NHC Advisory 14 · . Comparison uses each record’s own geometry. A revision is not a landfall or impact prediction.
| Field | Selected issuance | Comparison issuance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maximum sustained wind | 75 kt · 86 mph | 75 kt · 86 mph | 0 kt |
| Minimum pressure | 982 hPa | 982 hPa | 0 hPa |
| Center position | 15.1°N, 102.5°W | 14.8°N, 102.5°W | Different observation times; not a forecast shift |
| Valid time | Selected position / wind | Previous position / wind | Wind revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14.6°N, 102.4°W 75 kt · 86 mph | 14.6°N, 102.4°W 75 kt · 86 mph | 0 kt | |
| 14.8°N, 102.5°W 75 kt · 86 mph | 14.8°N, 102.5°W 75 kt · 86 mph | 0 kt | |
| 15.5°N, 103.1°W 75 kt · 86 mph | 15.5°N, 103.1°W 75 kt · 86 mph | 0 kt | |
| 16.9°N, 104.1°W 80 kt · 92 mph | 16.9°N, 104.1°W 80 kt · 92 mph | 0 kt | |
| 18.5°N, 105.1°W 80 kt · 92 mph | 18.5°N, 105.1°W 80 kt · 92 mph | 0 kt | |
| 19.7°N, 105.9°W 75 kt · 86 mph | 19.7°N, 105.9°W 75 kt · 86 mph | 0 kt | |
| 20.5°N, 106.6°W 60 kt · 69 mph | 20.5°N, 106.6°W 60 kt · 69 mph | 0 kt | |
| 20.9°N, 107.1°W 45 kt · 52 mph | 20.9°N, 107.1°W 45 kt · 52 mph | 0 kt | |
| 21.5°N, 108.1°W 30 kt · 35 mph | 21.5°N, 108.1°W 30 kt · 35 mph | 0 kt | |
| 22.1°N, 109.3°W 20 kt · 23 mph | 22.1°N, 109.3°W 20 kt · 23 mph | 0 kt |
Potential impacts and monitoring context
No supported U.S. monitoring areaCurrent warnings in the monitoring area
None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Best track. Current geographical context; these alerts are not attributed to the cyclone.
No U.S. area
No U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone. The storm’s own panels are shown, and no NWS alert is listed.
Official forecast table
Official forecast positions and intensity
NHC Best track · advisory · forecast cycle . Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.
| Valid time / lead | Position | Classification | Sustained wind |
|---|---|---|---|
+0 h from forecast cycle | 14.6°N, 102.4°W | hurricane | 75 kt · 86 mph |
+3 h from forecast cycle | 14.8°N, 102.5°W | hurricane | 75 kt · 86 mph |
+12 h from forecast cycle | 15.5°N, 103.1°W | hurricane | 75 kt · 86 mph |
+24 h from forecast cycle | 16.9°N, 104.1°W | hurricane | 80 kt · 92 mph |
+36 h from forecast cycle | 18.5°N, 105.1°W | hurricane | 80 kt · 92 mph |
+48 h from forecast cycle | 19.7°N, 105.9°W | hurricane | 75 kt · 86 mph |
+60 h from forecast cycle | 20.5°N, 106.6°W | tropical storm | 60 kt · 69 mph |
+72 h from forecast cycle | 20.9°N, 107.1°W | tropical storm | 45 kt · 52 mph |
+96 h from forecast cycle | 21.5°N, 108.1°W | tropical depression | 30 kt · 35 mph |
+120 h from forecast cycle | 22.1°N, 109.3°W | low | 20 kt · 23 mph |
Monitoring geography and current changes
- Area
- None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Best track
Coastal watches and warnings: none in a U.S. state · Cone: crosses no U.S. state - Hazards
- —
- Window
- In force now, with this advisory’s forecast
- Made by
- NHC’s own products, as this site’s pipeline published them, read again with each new advisory. Watch another area
The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.
All published products and source descriptions
Wind speed probabilities
| Place | 34 kt | 50 kt | 64 kt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manzanillo | 86% | 36% | 10% |
| Barra Navidad | 73% | 22% | 5% |
| Islas Marias | 48% | 14% | 3% |
| P Vallarta | 38% | 4% | — |
| San Blas | 30% | — | — |
| L Cardenas | 16% | — | — |
| Mazatlan | 4% | — | — |
| 15n 105w | 3% | — | — |
| Zihuatanejo | 3% | — | — |
NHC’s chance of sustained wind of at least each speed at each place it lists, through ; the places with the highest chance of 34 kt first. Issued . Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s table.
NHC’s coastal watches and warnings
Hurricane Warning
- The coast of Mexico from Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes
Tropical Storm Warning
- The coast of Mexico from Manzanillo southward to Zihuatanejo
Hurricane Watch
- The coast of Mexico from Manzanillo southward to Punta San Telmo
Tropical Storm Watch
- The coast of Mexico north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas
In NHC’s words, Best track, issued . The areas NHC names, in the United States and abroad; for a place outside the United States its national service is the warning authority. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s advisory.
Intensity forecast
The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from NHC’s Best track (). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.
Satellite
The storm’s page shows it on NASA GIBS (NOAA GOES, JMA Himawari)’s imagery, loaded by your browser. GOES-East at 27° from the storm's meridian.
Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.
Model guidance
The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from NHC’s Best track (). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.
Radar
NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.
Live tiles; the radar keeps no last-good copy.
Sources
NHC best track, as published checked
Radar live tiles, no last-good copy
Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.