Weather Center: Arizona

Current alerts

1 high wind warning touches Arizona. 1 high wind warning (touching Arizona)

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NWS alerts checked 04:54Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:50Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 17:24Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 04:54Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 04:50Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:56Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / WPC selected forecast: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 04:54Z.

WPC selected forecast: Feed current; checked 04:50Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, Saturday 17 Oct

Source: WPC

Forecast: WPC’s scale

1 · Marginal

View scale

1 · Marginal
2 · Slight (not outlined)
3 · Moderate (not outlined)
4 · High (not outlined)

In force now

High Wind Warning 1
Freeze Warning outside Arizona
Red Flag Warning outside Arizona

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 01:00Z to 12:00Z, issued 00:56Z · Data: NOAA/WPC. Warnings and watches are as of 04:54Z (now), not for the outlook’s period.

Everything on the map, as a list

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: Marginal
High Wind Warning: Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys including Nogales; Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail; South Central Pinal County including Eloy/Picacho Peak State Park; Southeast Pinal County including Kearny/Mammoth/Oracle; Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra Vista/Benson; Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox; Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford; Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains including Mount Graham; Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument; Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon; Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains including Mount Lemmon/Summerhaven, until 12:00Z
Outside Arizona, for context: High Wind Warning: Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County; Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet; Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains, until 06:00Z
Outside Arizona, for context: High Wind Warning: San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire; San Diego County Inland Valleys; Riverside County Mountains; Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills; San Diego County Mountains; San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning, until 18 Oct 07:00Z
Outside Arizona, for context: Freeze Warning: Northwest Plateau; Espanola Valley; Santa Fe Metro Area; Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area; Lower Rio Grande Valley; Central Highlands; South Central Highlands; Upper Tularosa Valley; Far Northeast Highlands; Union County; Harding County; Eastern San Miguel County; Guadalupe County; Quay County; Curry County; Roosevelt County; De Baca County; Chaves County Plains; Eastern Lincoln County; Southwest Chaves County; San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands, until 15:00Z
Outside Arizona, for context: Freeze Warning: Lower Yampa River Basin; Central Yampa River Basin; Upper Yampa River Basin; Central Colorado River Basin; San Juan River Basin, until 15:00Z
Outside Arizona, for context: Freeze Warning: Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County; Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet; Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains; Northern Lea County; Central Lea County; Davis Mountains, until 15:00Z
Outside Arizona, for context: Freeze Warning: Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County; Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft; Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below 7400 Ft; Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet; Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft; Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft; Crowley County; La Junta Vicinity/Otero County; Eastern Las Animas County; Western Kiowa County; Eastern Kiowa County; Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County; Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County; Springfield Vicinity/Baca County, until 15:00Z
Outside Arizona, for context: Red Flag Warning: Western Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area; Eastern Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area; Santa Susana Mountains; Southern Ventura County Mountains; Northern Ventura County Mountains; Interstate 5 Corridor; Western San Gabriel Mountains and Highway 14 Corridor; Eastern San Gabriel Mountains; Western Antelope Valley Foothills; Eastern Antelope Valley Foothills; Santa Clarita Valley; Ventura County Beaches; Ventura County Inland Coast; Lake Casitas; Ojai Valley; Central Ventura County Valleys; Malibu Coast; Calabasas and Agoura Hills; Western San Fernando Valley; Eastern San Fernando Valley; Southeastern Ventura County Valleys; Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valley, until 18 Oct 03:00Z

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Saturday briefing for Arizona

Highest anywhere in Arizona: no risk area

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

The highest category anywhere in the state, from its outline; not every point in it.

When

Outlook valid 01:00Z to 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive.

Prepare

A warning is in force here: follow its instructions in Current alerts first.

There is no safe place outside when thunderstorms are in the area. … When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors. NWS

In the National Weather Service’s words, from weather.gov.

Rain and rivers

Expected rain: 0.01 in or more at its highest in Arizona, in WPC’s forecast for the 24 hours 00:00Z to 18 Oct 00:00Z. An amount for the area its contour covers, not a total for any one street.
Rain that fell: 0.25 to 0.5 in at its highest in Arizona, in the 24 hours to 04:00Z, by MRMS’s radar estimate over a grid about 5 km across: a measurement of the past, not corrected to rain gauges.
Rivers: no river gauge in Arizona is in flood or forecast to flood, by NWS’s lists read 04:45Z. Gauges are on larger rivers, not every creek: this is not a sign that nothing can flood.

Three sources, each its own window. None is a chance of flash flooding, which is WPC’s outlook above; a flash flood is a warning’s. Gauges in the Live tracker

Official discussion

WPC’s discussion covers the whole country, not Arizona alone.

WPC Excessive Rainfall Discussion, Day 1, issued 00:58Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

Convection has generally peaked across FL, with the coverage of
heavy rainfall expected to be on the decline overnight. A
localized urban flash flood risk may continue for a few more hours
across portions of the southeast coast of FL where slow moving
cells could drop 2-3" of rain in an hour. Coastal convergence, and
outflow driven convergence from the convection over the center of
state, are allowing for some modest expansion of these slow moving
cells. This activity should also tend to weaken in intensity within
a few hours.

Chenard

WPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

The chance that rainfall exceeds flash flood guidance within 40 km (25 miles) of a point during the valid period, as WPC defines its categories. Marginal is at least 5%, Slight 15%, Moderate 40% and High 70%. WPC’s categories are separate from SPC’s severe-storm categories, and an outlook category is not a warning: a Flash Flood Warning means flooding is happening or imminent. WPC’s definitions.

Coming days · Arizona

2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-10-18Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Severe storms

General thunderstorms at its highest nationally. SPC’s convective outlook, on its own scale.

View severe outlook

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 16 Oct – 12Z 17 Oct

0 tornado · 0 wind · 0 hail in Arizona

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms. None reported is not proof that nothing happened.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions in Arizona. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings in Arizona

1 warning touching Arizona

1 warning touches Arizona, most urgent first. A warning across a state line is counted here and in the other state.

NWS alerts checked 04:54Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 03:55Z: no change in the warnings.

Warnings 1

High wind Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys including Nogales; Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail; South Central Pinal County including Eloy/Picacho Peak State Park; Southeast Pinal County including Kearny/Mammoth/Oracle; Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra Vista/Benson; Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox; Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford; Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains including Mount Graham; Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument; Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon; Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains including Mount Lemmon/Summerhaven until 12:00Z Track: High Wind Warning, Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys including Nogales; Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail; South Central Pinal County including Eloy/Picacho Peak State Park; Southeast Pinal County including Kearny/Mammoth/Oracle; Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra Vista/Benson; Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox; Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford; Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains including Mount Graham; Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument; Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon; Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains including Mount Lemmon/Summerhaven

All 1 warning touching Arizona, with their full text, in the Live tracker

61 warnings elsewhere in the country: the national list. Track Arizona live

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

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