Weather Center: Michigan

Current alerts

2 freeze warnings touch Michigan. 2 freeze warnings (touching Michigan)

Open live tracker

NWS alerts checked 04:31Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:50Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 17:24Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 04:31Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 04:30Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:56Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / SPC selected outlook: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 04:31Z.

SPC selected outlook: Feed current; checked 04:30Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Potential too low: SPC expects too little severe weather to outline a 15% area. Predictability too low: the forecasts differ too much to place an area; severe storms are not ruled out. Neither means no hazardous weather.

Hazard & forecast product

Days 4–8 carry one product: SPC’s chance of any severe storm, outlined at 15% and 30%.

SPC Day 6 outlook, any severe, Wednesday 21 Oct

Source: SPC

Now, not forecast: Current warnings as of 04:31Z are drawn over the outlook for Wednesday 21 Oct, the warnings hatched so the forecast shows through. They are in force now; the outlook is for its own period. Show the forecast alone

Forecast: SPC’s scale

SPC Day 6 outlook, any severe: Predictability too low

In force now

Freeze Warning 2

SPC Day 6 outlook, any severe, valid 21 Oct 12:00Z to 22 Oct 12:00Z, issued 16 Oct 07:52Z · Data: NOAA/SPC. Warnings and watches are as of 04:31Z (now), not for the outlook’s period.

Everything on the map, as a list

SPC Day 6 outlook, any severe: Predictability too low
Freeze Warning: Midland; Bay; Saginaw; Tuscola; Shiawassee; Genesee; Lapeer, until 12:00Z
Freeze Warning: Oceana; Newaygo; Mecosta; Isabella; Muskegon; Montcalm; Gratiot; Ottawa; Kent; Ionia; Clinton, until 12:00Z
Outside Michigan, for context: Freeze Warning: Winnebago; Boone; McHenry; Ogle; Lee; De Kalb; Kane, until 13:00Z
Outside Michigan, for context: Freeze Warning: Mitchell; Howard; Winneshiek; Allamakee; Floyd; Chickasaw; Fayette; Clayton; Wabasha; Dodge; Olmsted; Winona; Mower; Fillmore; Houston; Taylor; Clark; Buffalo; Trempealeau; Jackson; La Crosse; Monroe; Juneau; Adams; Vernon; Crawford; Richland; Grant, until 14:00Z
Outside Michigan, for context: Freeze Warning: Emmet; Kossuth; Winnebago; Worth; Palo Alto; Hancock; Cerro Gordo; Pocahontas; Humboldt; Wright; Franklin; Butler; Bremer; Sac; Calhoun; Webster; Hamilton; Hardin; Grundy; Black Hawk; Crawford; Carroll; Greene; Boone; Story; Marshall; Tama; Audubon; Guthrie; Dallas; Polk; Jasper; Poweshiek; Cass; Adair; Madison; Warren; Marion; Mahaska; Adams; Union; Clarke; Lucas; Monroe; Wapello; Taylor; Ringgold; Decatur; Wayne; Appanoose, until 14:00Z
Outside Michigan, for context: Freeze Warning: Buchanan; Delaware; Dubuque; Benton; Linn; Jones; Jackson; Iowa; Johnson; Cedar; Clinton; Muscatine; Scott; Keokuk; Washington; Jefferson; Jo Daviess; Stephenson; Carroll; Whiteside; Rock Island, until 14:00Z
Outside Michigan, for context: Freeze Warning: Wilkin; West Otter Tail; East Otter Tail; Wadena; Grant, until 14:00Z
Outside Michigan, for context: Freeze Warning: Lyon; Sioux; Plymouth; Woodbury; Lincoln; Lyon; Murray; Pipestone; Rock; Dixon; Dakota; Kingsbury; Brookings; Miner; Lake; Moody; Hanson; McCook; Minnehaha; Hutchinson; Turner; Lincoln; Bon Homme; Yankton; Clay; Union; Osceola; Dickinson; O'Brien; Clay; Cherokee; Buena Vista; Ida; Cottonwood; Nobles; Jackson, until 14:00Z
Outside Michigan, for context: Freeze Warning: Menominee; Marathon; Shawano; Wood; Portage; Waupaca; Outagamie; Brown; Kewaunee; Waushara; Winnebago; Calumet; Manitowoc; Southern Marinette County; Southern Oconto County, until 14:00Z
Outside Michigan, for context: Freeze Warning: Marquette; Green Lake; Fond Du Lac; Sheboygan; Sauk; Columbia; Dodge; Washington; Iowa; Dane; Jefferson; Waukesha; Lafayette; Green; Rock; Walworth, until 14:00Z
Outside Michigan, for context: Freeze Warning: Hennepin; Ramsey; Douglas; Todd; Morrison; Mille Lacs; Kanabec; Stevens; Pope; Stearns; Benton; Sherburne; Isanti; Chisago; Lac Qui Parle; Swift; Chippewa; Kandiyohi; Meeker; Wright; Anoka; Washington; Yellow Medicine; Renville; McLeod; Sibley; Carver; Scott; Dakota; Redwood; Brown; Nicollet; Le Sueur; Rice; Goodhue; Watonwan; Blue Earth; Waseca; Steele; Martin; Faribault; Freeborn; Polk; Barron; Rusk; St. Croix; Pierce; Dunn; Pepin; Chippewa; Eau Claire, until 14:00Z
Outside Michigan, for context: Freeze Warning: Monona; Harrison; Shelby; Pottawattamie; Mills; Montgomery; Fremont; Page; Knox; Cedar; Thurston; Antelope; Pierce; Wayne; Boone; Madison; Stanton; Cuming; Burt; Platte; Colfax; Dodge; Washington; Butler; Saunders; Douglas; Sarpy; Seward; Lancaster; Cass; Otoe; Saline; Jefferson; Gage; Johnson; Nemaha; Pawnee; Richardson, until 14:00Z
Outside Michigan, for context: Freeze Warning: Wayne; Fayette; Union; Franklin; Ripley; Dearborn; Ohio; Switzerland; Carroll; Gallatin; Boone; Kenton; Campbell; Owen; Grant; Pendleton; Bracken; Robertson; Mason; Lewis; Hardin; Mercer; Auglaize; Darke; Shelby; Logan; Union; Delaware; Miami; Champaign; Clark; Madison; Franklin; Licking; Preble; Montgomery; Greene; Fayette; Pickaway; Fairfield; Butler; Warren; Clinton; Ross; Hocking; Hamilton; Clermont; Brown; Highland; Adams; Pike; Scioto, until 18 Oct 13:00Z

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Wednesday planning outlook for Michigan

SPC Days 4–8 · planning

Highest anywhere in Michigan: Predictability too low

Predictability too low: the forecasts differ too much for SPC to place an area yet. Severe storms are not ruled out; they cannot be located this far ahead.

Where: No area is outlined anywhere for this day.
When: 21 Oct 12:00Z to 22 Oct 12:00Z: SPC’s Day 6, counted from its issuance at 16 Oct 07:52Z. No time of day is given.
Prepare: No preparation is indicated by this planning outlook. Check again as the day comes closer.

Official discussion

SPC’s discussion covers the whole country and all five days, not Michigan alone.

SPC Day 4–8 Convective Outlook, issued 16 Oct 07:54Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

000
ACUS48 KWNS 160754
SWOD48
SPC AC 160752

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A rather stagnant upper-air pattern will be in place across the
CONUS into early next week, with an upper ridge continuing over the
central U.S. as a mid-level cut-off low meanders along the Atlantic
coastline and an upper trough gradually amplifies along the West
Coast. By the middle to end of next week, the West Coast upper
trough will advance eastward toward the Rockies, encouraging surface
lee troughing and subsequent low-level moisture return (albeit
modest) across the Great Plains states. Thunderstorm development is
possible, especially across portions of the southern High Plains
Days 6-7 (next Wednesday-Thursday). However, deterministic guidance
suggests that little overlap of meaningful buoyancy and vertical
wind shear will take place over the southern High Plains next
Wednesday-Thursday, with calibrated ML/AI guidance only hinting at a
severe threat that will be isolated at best. Therefore, severe
probabilities have been withheld this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026

SPC’s Days 4–8 page

Forecast details

SPC’s Days 4–8 outlook outlines where it sees at least a 15% or a 30% chance of severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point on each day. It has no categories and no hazard of its own. “Potential too low” means SPC expects too little severe weather to outline 15%; “Predictability too low” means the forecasts differ too much to place an area, and severe storms are not ruled out. A day further out is less certain than Days 1–3. SPC’s Days 4–8 page.

Coming days · Michigan

2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-10-18Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Flash-flood risk

WPC outlines no excessive rainfall area at this scope. WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook: a separate forecast with its own scale.

View flash-flood risk

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 16 Oct – 12Z 17 Oct

0 tornado · 0 wind · 0 hail in Michigan

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms. None reported is not proof that nothing happened.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions in Michigan. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings in Michigan

2 warnings touching Michigan

2 warnings touch Michigan, most urgent first. A warning across a state line is counted here and in the other state.

NWS alerts checked 04:31Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 03:32Z: no change in the warnings.

Warnings 2

Freeze Midland; Bay; Saginaw; Tuscola; Shiawassee; Genesee; Lapeer until 12:00Z Track: Freeze Warning, Midland; Bay; Saginaw; Tuscola; Shiawassee; Genesee; Lapeer
Freeze Oceana; Newaygo; Mecosta; Isabella; Muskegon; Montcalm; Gratiot; Ottawa; Kent; Ionia; Clinton until 12:00Z Track: Freeze Warning, Oceana; Newaygo; Mecosta; Isabella; Muskegon; Montcalm; Gratiot; Ottawa; Kent; Ionia; Clinton

All 2 warnings touching Michigan, with their full text, in the Live tracker

57 warnings elsewhere in the country: the national list. Track Michigan live

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

Weather Center