Weather Center: Northern Mariana Islands

Current alerts

1 typhoon warning, 1 tropical storm warning, 1 coastal flood warning and 1 high surf warning touch Northern Mariana Islands. 1 typhoon warning 1 tropical storm warning 1 coastal flood warning 1 high surf warning (touching Northern Mariana Islands)

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NWS alerts checked 04:29Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:50Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 17:24Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 04:29Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 04:25Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:56Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / SPC selected outlook: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 04:29Z.

SPC selected outlook: Feed current; checked 04:25Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

Day 3 carries one combined probability.

This period does not carry the hail view, so the overall risk is shown.

SPC Day 3 categorical outlook, Sunday 18 Oct

Source: SPC

Now, not forecast: Current warnings as of 04:29Z are drawn over the outlook for Sunday 18 Oct, the warnings hatched so the forecast shows through. They are in force now; the outlook is for its own period. Show the forecast alone

Forecast: SPC’s scale

General Thunderstorms not severe

View scale

General Thunderstorms not severe
1 · Marginal Risk (not outlined)
2 · Slight Risk (not outlined)
3 · Enhanced Risk (not outlined)
4 · Moderate Risk (not outlined)
5 · High Risk (not outlined)

SPC Day 3 categorical outlook, valid 18 Oct 12:00Z to 19 Oct 12:00Z, issued 16 Oct 19:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC. Warnings and watches are as of 04:29Z (now), not for the outlook’s period.Northern Mariana Islands is outside this map, which draws the conterminous states; its warnings are listed below.

Everything on the map, as a list

SPC Day 3 categorical outlook: General Thunderstorms

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Sunday briefing for Northern Mariana Islands

Highest anywhere in Northern Mariana Islands: no outlook here

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

SPC and WPC issue outlooks for the lower 48 states only; Northern Mariana Islands’s warnings are listed with the current alerts.

Where: Northern Mariana Islands is outside the area SPC’s and WPC’s outlooks cover, the lower 48 states.
Prepare: Northern Mariana Islands has no SPC or WPC outlook to prepare from; follow its warnings in Current alerts.

Official discussion

SPC’s discussion covers the whole country, not Northern Mariana Islands alone.

SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook narrative, issued 16 Oct 19:23Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

000
ACUS03 KWNS 161923
SWODY3
SPC AC 161922

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A front will stall in the vicinity of south FL and provide a focus
for thunderstorm development in a moist environment with PW values
in excess of 2 inches.  Across AZ/NM, a midlevel trough will eject
northeastward in advance of height falls over the Pacific Northwest
coast late in the period.  Midlevel lapse rates, moisture and ascent
could be sufficiently deep for charge separation and isolated
lightning flashes with weak midlevel convection.

..Thompson.. 10/16/2026

$$

SPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

SPC’s categorical outlook rates the coverage and intensity of organized severe storms on five levels, from Marginal (1) to High (5); “Thunderstorms” outlines a 10% or greater chance of thunderstorms and is not a severe category. Each probability is the chance of that hazard within 25 miles of a point during the valid period. An intensity overlay marks where significant severe hazards are more likely should storms occur. An outlook is a forecast; a warning means a storm is happening or imminent. SPC’s definitions.

Coming days · Northern Mariana Islands

2026-10-17Severe storms: Outside lower-48 outlook coverageFlash flooding: Outside lower-48 outlook coverage 2026-10-17Severe storms: Outside lower-48 outlook coverageFlash flooding: Outside lower-48 outlook coverage 2026-10-18Severe storms: Outside lower-48 outlook coverageFlash flooding: Outside lower-48 outlook coverage

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Flash-flood risk

WPC outlines no excessive rainfall area at this scope. WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook: a separate forecast with its own scale.

View flash-flood risk

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 16 Oct – 12Z 17 Oct

0 tornado · 0 wind · 0 hail in Northern Mariana Islands

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms. None reported is not proof that nothing happened.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions in Northern Mariana Islands. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings in Northern Mariana Islands

4 warnings touching Northern Mariana Islands

4 warnings touch Northern Mariana Islands, most urgent first. A warning across a state line is counted here and in the other state.

NWS alerts checked 04:29Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 03:31Z: no change in the warnings.

Warnings 4

Typhoon Guam Coastal Waters; Rota Coastal Waters; Guam; Rota until 20:00Z crosses Guam and Northern Mariana Islands Track: Typhoon Warning, Guam Coastal Waters; Rota Coastal Waters; Guam; Rota
Tropical storm Tinian Coastal Waters; Saipan Coastal Waters; Tinian; Saipan until 20:00Z Track: Tropical Storm Warning, Tinian Coastal Waters; Saipan Coastal Waters; Tinian; Saipan
Coastal flood Guam; Rota; Tinian; Saipan until 18 Oct 18:00Z crosses Guam and Northern Mariana Islands Track: Coastal Flood Warning, Guam; Rota; Tinian; Saipan
High surf Guam; Rota; Tinian; Saipan until 18 Oct 18:00Z crosses Guam and Northern Mariana Islands Track: High Surf Warning, Guam; Rota; Tinian; Saipan

All 4 warnings touching Northern Mariana Islands, with their full text, in the Live tracker

55 warnings elsewhere in the country: the national list.

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

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