Weather Center: Arkansas

Current alerts

2 red flag warnings touch Arkansas. 2 red flag warnings (touching Arkansas)

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NWS alerts checked 05:07Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:50Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 17:24Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 05:07Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 05:05Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:56Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / SPC selected outlook: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 05:07Z.

SPC selected outlook: Feed current; checked 05:05Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

Day 3 carries one combined probability.

This period does not carry the tornado view, so the overall risk is shown.

SPC Day 3 categorical outlook, Sunday 18 Oct

Source: SPC

Now, not forecast: Current warnings as of 05:07Z are drawn over the outlook for Sunday 18 Oct, the warnings hatched so the forecast shows through. They are in force now; the outlook is for its own period. Show the forecast alone

Forecast: SPC’s scale

General Thunderstorms not severe

View scale

General Thunderstorms not severe
1 · Marginal Risk (not outlined)
2 · Slight Risk (not outlined)
3 · Enhanced Risk (not outlined)
4 · Moderate Risk (not outlined)
5 · High Risk (not outlined)

In force now

Red Flag Warning 2
Flood Warning outside Arkansas

SPC Day 3 categorical outlook, valid 18 Oct 12:00Z to 19 Oct 12:00Z, issued 16 Oct 19:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC. Warnings and watches are as of 05:07Z (now), not for the outlook’s period.

Everything on the map, as a list

SPC Day 3 categorical outlook: General Thunderstorms
Red Flag Warning: Lincoln; Union; Jackson; Ouachita; Natchitoches; Winn; Grant; Caldwell; La Salle; Sevier; Howard; Little River; Hempstead; Nevada; Miller; Lafayette; Columbia; Union; Caddo; Bossier; Webster; Claiborne; De Soto; Red River; Bienville; Sabine; McCurtain; Red River; Bowie; Franklin; Titus; Camp; Morris; Cass; Wood; Upshur; Marion; Smith; Gregg; Harrison; Cherokee; Rusk; Panola; Nacogdoches; Shelby; Angelina; San Augustine; Sabine, until 06:00Z
Red Flag Warning: Ashley; Chicot; Morehouse; West Carroll; East Carroll; Richland; Madison; Franklin; Catahoula; Tensas; Concordia; Bolivar; Sunflower; Leflore; Grenada; Carroll; Montgomery; Webster; Clay; Lowndes; Choctaw; Oktibbeha; Washington; Humphreys; Holmes; Attala; Winston; Noxubee; Issaquena; Sharkey; Yazoo; Madison; Leake; Neshoba; Kemper; Warren; Hinds; Rankin; Scott; Newton; Lauderdale; Claiborne; Copiah; Simpson; Smith; Jasper; Clarke; Jefferson; Adams; Franklin; Lincoln; Lawrence; Jefferson Davis; Covington; Jones; Marion; Lamar; Forrest, until 18 Oct 00:00Z
Outside Arkansas, for context: Flood Warning: Payne County, OK, until 07:34Z
Outside Arkansas, for context: Red Flag Warning: Lincoln; Union; Jackson; Ouachita; Natchitoches; Winn; Grant; Caldwell; La Salle, until 18 Oct 00:00Z

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Sunday briefing for Arkansas

Highest anywhere in Arkansas: no risk area

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

The highest category anywhere in the state, from its outline; not every point in it.

When: Outlook valid 18 Oct 12:00Z to 19 Oct 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive. This period has not begun.
Prepare: No additional severe-weather preparation is indicated by this outlook.

Official discussion

SPC’s discussion covers the whole country, not Arkansas alone.

SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook narrative, issued 16 Oct 19:23Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

000
ACUS03 KWNS 161923
SWODY3
SPC AC 161922

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A front will stall in the vicinity of south FL and provide a focus
for thunderstorm development in a moist environment with PW values
in excess of 2 inches.  Across AZ/NM, a midlevel trough will eject
northeastward in advance of height falls over the Pacific Northwest
coast late in the period.  Midlevel lapse rates, moisture and ascent
could be sufficiently deep for charge separation and isolated
lightning flashes with weak midlevel convection.

..Thompson.. 10/16/2026

$$

SPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

SPC’s categorical outlook rates the coverage and intensity of organized severe storms on five levels, from Marginal (1) to High (5); “Thunderstorms” outlines a 10% or greater chance of thunderstorms and is not a severe category. Each probability is the chance of that hazard within 25 miles of a point during the valid period. An intensity overlay marks where significant severe hazards are more likely should storms occur. An outlook is a forecast; a warning means a storm is happening or imminent. SPC’s definitions.

Coming days · Arkansas

2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-10-18Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Flash-flood risk

WPC outlines no excessive rainfall area at this scope. WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook: a separate forecast with its own scale.

View flash-flood risk

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 16 Oct – 12Z 17 Oct

0 tornado · 0 wind · 0 hail in Arkansas

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms. None reported is not proof that nothing happened.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions in Arkansas. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings in Arkansas

2 warnings touching Arkansas

2 warnings touch Arkansas, most urgent first. A warning across a state line is counted here and in the other state.

NWS alerts checked 05:07Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 04:08Z: no change in the warnings.

Warnings 2

Red flag Lincoln; Union; Jackson; Ouachita; Natchitoches; Winn; Grant; Caldwell; La Salle; Sevier; Howard; Little River; Hempstead; Nevada; Miller; Lafayette; Columbia; Union; Caddo; Bossier; Webster; Claiborne; De Soto; Red River; Bienville; Sabine; McCurtain; Red River; Bowie; Franklin; Titus; Camp; Morris; Cass; Wood; Upshur; Marion; Smith; Gregg; Harrison; Cherokee; Rusk; Panola; Nacogdoches; Shelby; Angelina; San Augustine; Sabine until 06:00Z crosses Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas Track: Red Flag Warning, Lincoln; Union; Jackson; Ouachita; Natchitoches; Winn; Grant; Caldwell; La Salle; Sevier; Howard; Little River; Hempstead; Nevada; Miller; Lafayette; Columbia; Union; Caddo; Bossier; Webster; Claiborne; De Soto; Red River; Bienville; Sabine; McCurtain; Red River; Bowie; Franklin; Titus; Camp; Morris; Cass; Wood; Upshur; Marion; Smith; Gregg; Harrison; Cherokee; Rusk; Panola; Nacogdoches; Shelby; Angelina; San Augustine; Sabine
Red flag Ashley; Chicot; Morehouse; West Carroll; East Carroll; Richland; Madison; Franklin; Catahoula; Tensas; Concordia; Bolivar; Sunflower; Leflore; Grenada; Carroll; Montgomery; Webster; Clay; Lowndes; Choctaw; Oktibbeha; Washington; Humphreys; Holmes; Attala; Winston; Noxubee; Issaquena; Sharkey; Yazoo; Madison; Leake; Neshoba; Kemper; Warren; Hinds; Rankin; Scott; Newton; Lauderdale; Claiborne; Copiah; Simpson; Smith; Jasper; Clarke; Jefferson; Adams; Franklin; Lincoln; Lawrence; Jefferson Davis; Covington; Jones; Marion; Lamar; Forrest until 18 Oct 00:00Z crosses Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi Track: Red Flag Warning, Ashley; Chicot; Morehouse; West Carroll; East Carroll; Richland; Madison; Franklin; Catahoula; Tensas; Concordia; Bolivar; Sunflower; Leflore; Grenada; Carroll; Montgomery; Webster; Clay; Lowndes; Choctaw; Oktibbeha; Washington; Humphreys; Holmes; Attala; Winston; Noxubee; Issaquena; Sharkey; Yazoo; Madison; Leake; Neshoba; Kemper; Warren; Hinds; Rankin; Scott; Newton; Lauderdale; Claiborne; Copiah; Simpson; Smith; Jasper; Clarke; Jefferson; Adams; Franklin; Lincoln; Lawrence; Jefferson Davis; Covington; Jones; Marion; Lamar; Forrest

All 2 warnings touching Arkansas, with their full text, in the Live tracker

62 warnings elsewhere in the country: the national list. Track Arkansas live

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

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