Weather Center: Virginia

Current alerts

2 freeze warnings touch Virginia. 2 freeze warnings (touching Virginia)

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NWS alerts checked 04:37Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:50Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 17:24Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 04:37Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 04:35Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:56Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / WPC selected forecast: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 04:37Z.

WPC selected forecast: Feed current; checked 04:35Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, Sunday 18 Oct

Source: WPC

Now, not forecast: Current warnings as of 04:37Z are drawn over the outlook for Sunday 18 Oct, the warnings hatched so the forecast shows through. They are in force now; the outlook is for its own period. Show the forecast alone

Forecast: WPC’s scale

1 · Marginal

View scale

1 · Marginal
2 · Slight (not outlined)
3 · Moderate (not outlined)
4 · High (not outlined)

In force now

Freeze Warning 2

WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 18 Oct 12:00Z to 19 Oct 12:00Z, issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC. Warnings and watches are as of 04:37Z (now), not for the outlook’s period.

Everything on the map, as a list

WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: Marginal
Freeze Warning: Washington; Frederick; Carroll; Northern Baltimore; Extreme Western Allegany; Central and Eastern Allegany; Northwest Harford; Western Garrett; Eastern Garrett; Augusta; Rockingham; Shenandoah; Frederick; Page; Warren; Clarke; Western Highland; Eastern Highland; Western Loudoun; Northern Virginia Blue Ridge; Central Virginia Blue Ridge; Hampshire; Morgan; Berkeley; Jefferson; Hardy; Western Grant; Eastern Grant; Western Mineral; Eastern Mineral; Western Pendleton; Eastern Pendleton, until 18 Oct 12:00Z
Freeze Warning: Greenup; Carter; Boyd; Lawrence; Perry; Morgan; Athens; Washington; Jackson; Vinton; Meigs; Gallia; Lawrence; Dickenson; Buchanan; Wayne; Cabell; Mason; Jackson; Wood; Pleasants; Tyler; Lincoln; Putnam; Kanawha; Roane; Wirt; Calhoun; Ritchie; Doddridge; Mingo; Logan; Boone; Clay; Braxton; Gilmer; Lewis; Harrison; Taylor; McDowell; Wyoming; Upshur; Barbour; Northwest Raleigh; Southeast Raleigh; Northwest Fayette; Southeast Fayette; Northwest Nicholas; Southeast Nicholas; Northwest Webster; Southeast Webster; Northwest Pocahontas; Southeast Pocahontas; Northwest Randolph; Southeast Randolph, until 18 Oct 13:00Z
Outside Virginia, for context: Freeze Warning: Wayne; Fayette; Union; Franklin; Ripley; Dearborn; Ohio; Switzerland; Carroll; Gallatin; Boone; Kenton; Campbell; Owen; Grant; Pendleton; Bracken; Robertson; Mason; Lewis; Hardin; Mercer; Auglaize; Darke; Shelby; Logan; Union; Delaware; Miami; Champaign; Clark; Madison; Franklin; Licking; Preble; Montgomery; Greene; Fayette; Pickaway; Fairfield; Butler; Warren; Clinton; Ross; Hocking; Hamilton; Clermont; Brown; Highland; Adams; Pike; Scioto, until 18 Oct 13:00Z

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Sunday briefing for Virginia

Highest anywhere in Virginia: no risk area

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

The highest category anywhere in the state, from its outline; not every point in it.

When: Outlook valid 18 Oct 12:00Z to 19 Oct 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive. This period has not begun.
Prepare: No additional flood preparation is indicated by this outlook.
Rain and rivers: Expected rain: 0.25 in or more at its highest in Virginia, in WPC’s forecast for the 24 hours 18 Oct 00:00Z to 19 Oct 00:00Z. An amount for the area its contour covers, not a total for any one street.
Rain that fell: 0.75 to 1 in at its highest in Virginia, in the 24 hours to 04:00Z, by MRMS’s radar estimate over a grid about 5 km across: a measurement of the past, not corrected to rain gauges.
Rivers: 26 gauges in flood in Virginia, by NWS’s lists read 04:35Z. Major flooding James River (VA) at Jamestown/Scotland Ferry (IN MLLW), VA. Not flooding now: observed below action stage (where officials start to act), or not reporting. Listed for its forecast. Forecast issued 16 Oct 17:31Z · crest 5 ft at 19 Oct 23:00Z · below flood stage (4 ft) by 20 Oct 04:00Z: major flooding. And 25 more. A gauge measures its river at that spot, not whether a road or a neighbourhood floods.
Three sources, each its own window. None is a chance of flash flooding, which is WPC’s outlook above; a flash flood is a warning’s. Gauges in the Live tracker

Official discussion

WPC’s discussion held was issued 00:58Z, and the map 16 Oct 19:17Z: they are different issuances, so the text is not shown with this map until the matching one is read.

WPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

The chance that rainfall exceeds flash flood guidance within 40 km (25 miles) of a point during the valid period, as WPC defines its categories. Marginal is at least 5%, Slight 15%, Moderate 40% and High 70%. WPC’s categories are separate from SPC’s severe-storm categories, and an outlook category is not a warning: a Flash Flood Warning means flooding is happening or imminent. WPC’s definitions.

Coming days · Virginia

2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-10-18Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Severe storms

General thunderstorms at its highest nationally. SPC’s convective outlook, on its own scale.

View severe outlook

River flooding

26 gauges in flood in Virginia, observed or forecast.

Major flooding James River (VA) at Jamestown/Scotland Ferry (IN MLLW), VA (forecast)
Major flooding Lynnhaven River at Lynnhaven Inlet (IN MLLW), VA (forecast)
Moderate flooding Atlantic Coast at Anheuser Busch Coastal Res. Center (MLLW), VA (forecast)

And 23 more gauges in flood.

A gauge measures its river at that spot; it does not say whether a particular road or neighbourhood floods. Flash flooding is in the warnings.

Gauges in the Live tracker

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 16 Oct – 12Z 17 Oct

0 tornado · 0 wind · 0 hail in Virginia

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms. None reported is not proof that nothing happened.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions in Virginia. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings in Virginia

2 warnings touching Virginia

2 warnings touch Virginia, most urgent first. A warning across a state line is counted here and in the other state.

NWS alerts checked 04:37Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 03:38Z: no change in the warnings.

Warnings 2

Freeze Washington; Frederick; Carroll; Northern Baltimore; Extreme Western Allegany; Central and Eastern Allegany; Northwest Harford; Western Garrett; Eastern Garrett; Augusta; Rockingham; Shenandoah; Frederick; Page; Warren; Clarke; Western Highland; Eastern Highland; Western Loudoun; Northern Virginia Blue Ridge; Central Virginia Blue Ridge; Hampshire; Morgan; Berkeley; Jefferson; Hardy; Western Grant; Eastern Grant; Western Mineral; Eastern Mineral; Western Pendleton; Eastern Pendleton until 18 Oct 12:00Z crosses Maryland, Virginia and West Virginia Track: Freeze Warning, Washington; Frederick; Carroll; Northern Baltimore; Extreme Western Allegany; Central and Eastern Allegany; Northwest Harford; Western Garrett; Eastern Garrett; Augusta; Rockingham; Shenandoah; Frederick; Page; Warren; Clarke; Western Highland; Eastern Highland; Western Loudoun; Northern Virginia Blue Ridge; Central Virginia Blue Ridge; Hampshire; Morgan; Berkeley; Jefferson; Hardy; Western Grant; Eastern Grant; Western Mineral; Eastern Mineral; Western Pendleton; Eastern Pendleton
Freeze Greenup; Carter; Boyd; Lawrence; Perry; Morgan; Athens; Washington; Jackson; Vinton; Meigs; Gallia; Lawrence; Dickenson; Buchanan; Wayne; Cabell; Mason; Jackson; Wood; Pleasants; Tyler; Lincoln; Putnam; Kanawha; Roane; Wirt; Calhoun; Ritchie; Doddridge; Mingo; Logan; Boone; Clay; Braxton; Gilmer; Lewis; Harrison; Taylor; McDowell; Wyoming; Upshur; Barbour; Northwest Raleigh; Southeast Raleigh; Northwest Fayette; Southeast Fayette; Northwest Nicholas; Southeast Nicholas; Northwest Webster; Southeast Webster; Northwest Pocahontas; Southeast Pocahontas; Northwest Randolph; Southeast Randolph until 18 Oct 13:00Z crosses Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia and West Virginia Track: Freeze Warning, Greenup; Carter; Boyd; Lawrence; Perry; Morgan; Athens; Washington; Jackson; Vinton; Meigs; Gallia; Lawrence; Dickenson; Buchanan; Wayne; Cabell; Mason; Jackson; Wood; Pleasants; Tyler; Lincoln; Putnam; Kanawha; Roane; Wirt; Calhoun; Ritchie; Doddridge; Mingo; Logan; Boone; Clay; Braxton; Gilmer; Lewis; Harrison; Taylor; McDowell; Wyoming; Upshur; Barbour; Northwest Raleigh; Southeast Raleigh; Northwest Fayette; Southeast Fayette; Northwest Nicholas; Southeast Nicholas; Northwest Webster; Southeast Webster; Northwest Pocahontas; Southeast Pocahontas; Northwest Randolph; Southeast Randolph

All 2 warnings touching Virginia, with their full text, in the Live tracker

59 warnings elsewhere in the country: the national list. Track Virginia live

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

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