Weather Center: New Jersey

Current alerts

2 freeze warnings touch New Jersey. 2 freeze warnings (touching New Jersey)

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NWS alerts checked 06:44Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 05:14Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 05:45Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 06:44Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 06:40Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:56Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / WPC selected forecast: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 06:44Z.

WPC selected forecast: Feed current; checked 06:40Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, Sunday 18 Oct

Source: WPC

Now, not forecast: Current warnings as of 06:44Z are drawn over the outlook for Sunday 18 Oct, the warnings hatched so the forecast shows through. They are in force now; the outlook is for its own period. Show the forecast alone

Forecast: WPC’s scale

1 · Marginal

View scale

1 · Marginal
2 · Slight (not outlined)
3 · Moderate (not outlined)
4 · High (not outlined)

In force now

Freeze Warning 2

WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 18 Oct 12:00Z to 19 Oct 12:00Z, issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC. Warnings and watches are as of 06:44Z (now), not for the outlook’s period.

Everything on the map, as a list

WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: Marginal
Freeze Warning: Northern Fairfield; Northern New Haven; Northern Middlesex; Northern New London; Western Passaic; Orange; Putnam, until 18 Oct 13:00Z
Freeze Warning: Sussex; Carbon; Monroe; Warren; Morris; Hunterdon; Berks; Lehigh; Northampton; Western Chester; Western Montgomery; Upper Bucks, until 18 Oct 13:00Z
Outside New Jersey, for context: Freeze Warning: Washington; Frederick; Carroll; Northern Baltimore; Extreme Western Allegany; Central and Eastern Allegany; Northwest Harford; Western Garrett; Eastern Garrett; Augusta; Rockingham; Shenandoah; Frederick; Page; Warren; Clarke; Western Highland; Eastern Highland; Western Loudoun; Northern Virginia Blue Ridge; Central Virginia Blue Ridge; Hampshire; Morgan; Berkeley; Jefferson; Hardy; Western Grant; Eastern Grant; Western Mineral; Eastern Mineral; Western Pendleton; Eastern Pendleton, until 18 Oct 12:00Z
Outside New Jersey, for context: Freeze Warning: Lackawanna; Luzerne, until 18 Oct 13:00Z
Outside New Jersey, for context: Freeze Warning: Warren; Potter; Elk; Cameron; Northern Clinton; Clearfield; Northern Centre; Southern Centre; Cambria; Blair; Huntingdon; Mifflin; Juniata; Somerset; Bedford; Fulton; Franklin; Tioga; Northern Lycoming; Sullivan; Southern Clinton; Southern Lycoming; Union; Snyder; Montour; Northumberland; Columbia; Perry; Dauphin; Schuylkill; Lebanon; Cumberland; Adams; York; Lancaster, until 18 Oct 13:00Z

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Sunday briefing for New Jersey

Highest anywhere in New Jersey: no risk area

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

The highest category anywhere in the state, from its outline; not every point in it.

When: Outlook valid 18 Oct 12:00Z to 19 Oct 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive. This period has not begun.
Prepare: No additional flood preparation is indicated by this outlook.
Rain and rivers: Expected rain: below WPC’s lowest contour (0.01 in) in New Jersey, in WPC’s forecast for the 24 hours 18 Oct 12:00Z to 19 Oct 12:00Z. An amount for the area its contour covers, not a total for any one street.
Rain that fell: 1 to 1.5 in at its highest in New Jersey, in the 24 hours to 06:00Z, by MRMS’s radar estimate over a grid about 5 km across: a measurement of the past, not corrected to rain gauges.
Rivers: 4 gauges in flood in New Jersey, by NWS’s lists read 06:35Z. Minor flooding New Jersey Atlantic Coast at Atlantic City (ocean front) (IN MLLW), NJ. Not flooding now: observed below action stage (where officials start to act), or not reporting. Listed for its forecast. Forecast issued 16 Oct 19:44Z · crest 6.4 ft at 19 Oct 18:00Z: minor flooding. And 3 more. A gauge measures its river at that spot, not whether a road or a neighbourhood floods.
Three sources, each its own window. None is a chance of flash flooding, which is WPC’s outlook above; a flash flood is a warning’s. Gauges in the Live tracker

Official discussion

WPC’s discussion held was issued 00:58Z, and the map 16 Oct 19:17Z: they are different issuances, so the text is not shown with this map until the matching one is read.

WPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

The chance that rainfall exceeds flash flood guidance within 40 km (25 miles) of a point during the valid period, as WPC defines its categories. Marginal is at least 5%, Slight 15%, Moderate 40% and High 70%. WPC’s categories are separate from SPC’s severe-storm categories, and an outlook category is not a warning: a Flash Flood Warning means flooding is happening or imminent. WPC’s definitions.

Coming days · New Jersey

2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-10-18Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Severe storms

General thunderstorms at its highest nationally. SPC’s convective outlook, on its own scale.

View severe outlook

River flooding

4 gauges in flood in New Jersey, observed or forecast.

Minor flooding New Jersey Atlantic Coast at Atlantic City (ocean front) (IN MLLW), NJ (forecast)
Minor flooding Barnegat Bay at Barnegat Light (IN MLLW), NJ (forecast)
Minor flooding Cape May Harbor at Cape May Harbor (IN MLLW), NJ (forecast)

And one more gauge in flood.

A gauge measures its river at that spot; it does not say whether a particular road or neighbourhood floods. Flash flooding is in the warnings.

Gauges in the Live tracker

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 16 Oct – 12Z 17 Oct

0 tornado · 4 wind · 0 hail in New Jersey

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions in New Jersey. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings in New Jersey

2 warnings touching New Jersey

2 warnings touch New Jersey, most urgent first. A warning across a state line is counted here and in the other state.

NWS alerts checked 06:44Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 05:45Z: no change in the warnings.

Warnings 2

Freeze Northern Fairfield; Northern New Haven; Northern Middlesex; Northern New London; Western Passaic; Orange; Putnam until 18 Oct 13:00Z crosses Connecticut, New Jersey and New York Track: Freeze Warning, Northern Fairfield; Northern New Haven; Northern Middlesex; Northern New London; Western Passaic; Orange; Putnam
Freeze Sussex; Carbon; Monroe; Warren; Morris; Hunterdon; Berks; Lehigh; Northampton; Western Chester; Western Montgomery; Upper Bucks until 18 Oct 13:00Z crosses New Jersey and Pennsylvania Track: Freeze Warning, Sussex; Carbon; Monroe; Warren; Morris; Hunterdon; Berks; Lehigh; Northampton; Western Chester; Western Montgomery; Upper Bucks

All 2 warnings touching New Jersey, with their full text, in the Live tracker

67 warnings elsewhere in the country: the national list. Track New Jersey live

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

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