Weather Center: New Jersey

NWS warnings: current · no activity

NWS warnings: Current · no activity; checked 05:02Z.

SPC selected outlook: Feed current; checked 05:00Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

SPC Day 1 tornado probability, Saturday 17 Oct

Source: SPC

Forecast: SPC’s scale

SPC Day 1 tornado probability: Less Than 2% All Areas

In force now

Freeze Warning outside New Jersey

SPC Day 1 tornado probability, valid 01:00Z to 12:00Z, issued 00:50Z · Data: NOAA/SPC. Warnings and watches are as of 05:02Z (now), not for the outlook’s period.

Everything on the map, as a list

SPC Day 1 tornado probability: Less Than 2% All Areas
Outside New Jersey, for context: Freeze Warning: Washington; Frederick; Carroll; Northern Baltimore; Extreme Western Allegany; Central and Eastern Allegany; Northwest Harford; Western Garrett; Eastern Garrett; Augusta; Rockingham; Shenandoah; Frederick; Page; Warren; Clarke; Western Highland; Eastern Highland; Western Loudoun; Northern Virginia Blue Ridge; Central Virginia Blue Ridge; Hampshire; Morgan; Berkeley; Jefferson; Hardy; Western Grant; Eastern Grant; Western Mineral; Eastern Mineral; Western Pendleton; Eastern Pendleton, until 18 Oct 12:00Z

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Saturday briefing for New Jersey

Highest anywhere in New Jersey: no area outlined

The highest category anywhere in the state, from its outline; not every point in it.

When: Outlook valid 01:00Z to 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive.
Prepare: There is no safe place outside when thunderstorms are in the area. … When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors. NWS
In the National Weather Service’s words, from weather.gov.
What changed: No outlined area reaches New Jersey now; the earlier issuance’s highest there was 2% tornado.
How this was compared
This issuance: 00:50Z. Earlier issuance: 16 Oct 19:56Z. The same product, SPC Day 1 tornado probability, for the same day, ending 12:00Z; an outlook for another day is never compared with this one. SPC dates this day’s outlook from when each is issued, so this one runs from 01:00Z and the earlier one from 16 Oct 20:00Z. Each issuance is read as the highest category whose area shares ground with New Jersey’s outline; the rest of the country is not compared.

Official discussion

SPC’s discussion covers the whole country, not New Jersey alone.

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook narrative, issued 00:51Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

000
ACUS01 KWNS 170051
SWODY1
SPC AC 170050

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low through the remainder of
tonight.

...01Z Update...
Convection associated with a strong cold front has generally
weakened or moved offshore of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England this evening. Sporadic thunderstorm activity could persist
through the remainder of the evening across these areas, though the
generally post-frontal nature of the remaining convection should
limit severe potential. Otherwise, ongoing storms across the FL
Peninsula should generally weaken through the evening, though some
storm potential may persist overnight across the FL Keys and
near-coastal areas.

..Dean.. 10/17/2026

$$

SPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

SPC’s categorical outlook rates the coverage and intensity of organized severe storms on five levels, from Marginal (1) to High (5); “Thunderstorms” outlines a 10% or greater chance of thunderstorms and is not a severe category. Each probability is the chance of that hazard within 25 miles of a point during the valid period. An intensity overlay marks where significant severe hazards are more likely should storms occur. An outlook is a forecast; a warning means a storm is happening or imminent. SPC’s definitions.

Current alerts

No warning touches New Jersey.

Open live tracker

NWS alerts checked 05:02Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:50Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 17:24Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 05:02Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 05:00Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:56Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

Coming days · New Jersey

2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-10-18Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Flash-flood risk

WPC outlines no excessive rainfall area at this scope. WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook: a separate forecast with its own scale.

View flash-flood risk

River flooding

4 gauges in flood in New Jersey, observed or forecast.

Minor flooding New Jersey Atlantic Coast at Atlantic City (ocean front) (IN MLLW), NJ (forecast)
Minor flooding Barnegat Bay at Barnegat Light (IN MLLW), NJ (forecast)
Minor flooding Cape May Harbor at Cape May Harbor (IN MLLW), NJ (forecast)

And one more gauge in flood.

A gauge measures its river at that spot; it does not say whether a particular road or neighbourhood floods. Flash flooding is in the warnings.

Gauges in the Live tracker

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 16 Oct – 12Z 17 Oct

0 tornado · 4 wind · 0 hail in New Jersey

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions in New Jersey. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

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