Weather Center: Michigan

Current alerts

2 freeze warnings touch Michigan. 2 freeze warnings (touching Michigan)

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NWS alerts checked 04:02Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:50Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 17:24Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 04:02Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 04:00Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:56Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / WPC selected forecast: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 04:02Z.

WPC selected forecast: Feed current; checked 04:00Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, Saturday 17 Oct

Source: WPC

Forecast: WPC’s scale

1 · Marginal

View scale

1 · Marginal
2 · Slight (not outlined)
3 · Moderate (not outlined)
4 · High (not outlined)

In force now

Freeze Warning 2

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 01:00Z to 12:00Z, issued 00:56Z · Data: NOAA/WPC. Warnings and watches are as of 04:02Z (now), not for the outlook’s period.

Everything on the map, as a list

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: Marginal
Freeze Warning: Midland; Bay; Saginaw; Tuscola; Shiawassee; Genesee; Lapeer, until 12:00Z
Freeze Warning: Oceana; Newaygo; Mecosta; Isabella; Muskegon; Montcalm; Gratiot; Ottawa; Kent; Ionia; Clinton, until 12:00Z
Outside Michigan, for context: Freeze Warning: Winnebago; Boone; McHenry; Ogle; Lee; De Kalb; Kane, until 13:00Z
Outside Michigan, for context: Freeze Warning: Mitchell; Howard; Winneshiek; Allamakee; Floyd; Chickasaw; Fayette; Clayton; Wabasha; Dodge; Olmsted; Winona; Mower; Fillmore; Houston; Taylor; Clark; Buffalo; Trempealeau; Jackson; La Crosse; Monroe; Juneau; Adams; Vernon; Crawford; Richland; Grant, until 14:00Z
Outside Michigan, for context: Freeze Warning: Emmet; Kossuth; Winnebago; Worth; Palo Alto; Hancock; Cerro Gordo; Pocahontas; Humboldt; Wright; Franklin; Butler; Bremer; Sac; Calhoun; Webster; Hamilton; Hardin; Grundy; Black Hawk; Crawford; Carroll; Greene; Boone; Story; Marshall; Tama; Audubon; Guthrie; Dallas; Polk; Jasper; Poweshiek; Cass; Adair; Madison; Warren; Marion; Mahaska; Adams; Union; Clarke; Lucas; Monroe; Wapello; Taylor; Ringgold; Decatur; Wayne; Appanoose, until 14:00Z
Outside Michigan, for context: Freeze Warning: Buchanan; Delaware; Dubuque; Benton; Linn; Jones; Jackson; Iowa; Johnson; Cedar; Clinton; Muscatine; Scott; Keokuk; Washington; Jefferson; Jo Daviess; Stephenson; Carroll; Whiteside; Rock Island, until 14:00Z
Outside Michigan, for context: Freeze Warning: Wilkin; West Otter Tail; East Otter Tail; Wadena; Grant, until 14:00Z
Outside Michigan, for context: Freeze Warning: Lyon; Sioux; Plymouth; Woodbury; Lincoln; Lyon; Murray; Pipestone; Rock; Dixon; Dakota; Kingsbury; Brookings; Miner; Lake; Moody; Hanson; McCook; Minnehaha; Hutchinson; Turner; Lincoln; Bon Homme; Yankton; Clay; Union; Osceola; Dickinson; O'Brien; Clay; Cherokee; Buena Vista; Ida; Cottonwood; Nobles; Jackson, until 14:00Z
Outside Michigan, for context: Freeze Warning: Menominee; Marathon; Shawano; Wood; Portage; Waupaca; Outagamie; Brown; Kewaunee; Waushara; Winnebago; Calumet; Manitowoc; Southern Marinette County; Southern Oconto County, until 14:00Z
Outside Michigan, for context: Freeze Warning: Marquette; Green Lake; Fond Du Lac; Sheboygan; Sauk; Columbia; Dodge; Washington; Iowa; Dane; Jefferson; Waukesha; Lafayette; Green; Rock; Walworth, until 14:00Z
Outside Michigan, for context: Freeze Warning: Hennepin; Ramsey; Douglas; Todd; Morrison; Mille Lacs; Kanabec; Stevens; Pope; Stearns; Benton; Sherburne; Isanti; Chisago; Lac Qui Parle; Swift; Chippewa; Kandiyohi; Meeker; Wright; Anoka; Washington; Yellow Medicine; Renville; McLeod; Sibley; Carver; Scott; Dakota; Redwood; Brown; Nicollet; Le Sueur; Rice; Goodhue; Watonwan; Blue Earth; Waseca; Steele; Martin; Faribault; Freeborn; Polk; Barron; Rusk; St. Croix; Pierce; Dunn; Pepin; Chippewa; Eau Claire, until 14:00Z
Outside Michigan, for context: Freeze Warning: Monona; Harrison; Shelby; Pottawattamie; Mills; Montgomery; Fremont; Page; Knox; Cedar; Thurston; Antelope; Pierce; Wayne; Boone; Madison; Stanton; Cuming; Burt; Platte; Colfax; Dodge; Washington; Butler; Saunders; Douglas; Sarpy; Seward; Lancaster; Cass; Otoe; Saline; Jefferson; Gage; Johnson; Nemaha; Pawnee; Richardson, until 14:00Z

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Saturday briefing for Michigan

Highest anywhere in Michigan: no risk area

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

The highest category anywhere in the state, from its outline; not every point in it.

When: Outlook valid 01:00Z to 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive.
Prepare: A warning is in force here: follow its instructions in Current alerts first.
Rain and rivers: Expected rain: 0.1 in or more at its highest in Michigan, in WPC’s forecast for the 24 hours 00:00Z to 18 Oct 00:00Z. An amount for the area its contour covers, not a total for any one street.
Rain that fell: 1.5 to 2 in at its highest in Michigan, in the 24 hours to 03:00Z, by MRMS’s radar estimate over a grid about 5 km across: a measurement of the past, not corrected to rain gauges.
Rivers: no river gauge in Michigan is in flood or forecast to flood, by NWS’s lists read 03:55Z. Gauges are on larger rivers, not every creek: this is not a sign that nothing can flood.
Three sources, each its own window. None is a chance of flash flooding, which is WPC’s outlook above; a flash flood is a warning’s. Gauges in the Live tracker

Official discussion

WPC’s discussion covers the whole country, not Michigan alone.

WPC Excessive Rainfall Discussion, Day 1, issued 00:58Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

Convection has generally peaked across FL, with the coverage of
heavy rainfall expected to be on the decline overnight. A
localized urban flash flood risk may continue for a few more hours
across portions of the southeast coast of FL where slow moving
cells could drop 2-3" of rain in an hour. Coastal convergence, and
outflow driven convergence from the convection over the center of
state, are allowing for some modest expansion of these slow moving
cells. This activity should also tend to weaken in intensity within
a few hours.

Chenard

WPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

The chance that rainfall exceeds flash flood guidance within 40 km (25 miles) of a point during the valid period, as WPC defines its categories. Marginal is at least 5%, Slight 15%, Moderate 40% and High 70%. WPC’s categories are separate from SPC’s severe-storm categories, and an outlook category is not a warning: a Flash Flood Warning means flooding is happening or imminent. WPC’s definitions.

Coming days · Michigan

2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined 2026-10-18Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: No excessive-rainfall area outlined

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Severe storms

General thunderstorms at its highest nationally. SPC’s convective outlook, on its own scale.

View severe outlook

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 16 Oct – 12Z 17 Oct

0 tornado · 0 wind · 0 hail in Michigan

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms. None reported is not proof that nothing happened.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions in Michigan. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings in Michigan

2 warnings touching Michigan

2 warnings touch Michigan, most urgent first. A warning across a state line is counted here and in the other state.

NWS alerts checked 04:02Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 03:03Z: no change in the warnings.

Warnings 2

Freeze Midland; Bay; Saginaw; Tuscola; Shiawassee; Genesee; Lapeer until 12:00Z Track: Freeze Warning, Midland; Bay; Saginaw; Tuscola; Shiawassee; Genesee; Lapeer
Freeze Oceana; Newaygo; Mecosta; Isabella; Muskegon; Montcalm; Gratiot; Ottawa; Kent; Ionia; Clinton until 12:00Z Track: Freeze Warning, Oceana; Newaygo; Mecosta; Isabella; Muskegon; Montcalm; Gratiot; Ottawa; Kent; Ionia; Clinton

All 2 warnings touching Michigan, with their full text, in the Live tracker

56 warnings elsewhere in the country: the national list. Track Michigan live

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

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