Weather Center

Current alerts

Flash flood warnings in New Mexico, Texas and two more places. 24 warnings are in effect in eight states and territories. 12 flash flood warnings 1 winter storm warning 3 high wind warnings 2 river flood warnings 3 areal flood warnings 2 coastal flood warnings 1 high surf warning 8 states and territories (distinct warnings nationwide)

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NWS alerts checked 01:43Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:28Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 29 Oct 17:29Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 29 Oct 19:27Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 01:43Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 01:40Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:50Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 29 Oct 20:08Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 29 Oct 20:08Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / SPC selected outlook: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 01:43Z.

SPC selected outlook: Feed current; checked 01:40Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

Day 3 carries one combined probability.

This period does not carry the tornado view, so the overall risk is shown.

SPC Day 3 categorical outlook, Saturday 31 Oct

Source: SPC

Forecast: SPC’s scale

General Thunderstorms not severe highest

View scale

General Thunderstorms not severe
1 · Marginal Risk (not outlined)
2 · Slight Risk (not outlined)
3 · Enhanced Risk (not outlined)
4 · Moderate Risk (not outlined)
5 · High Risk (not outlined)

SPC Day 3 categorical outlook, valid 31 Oct 12:00Z to 1 Nov 12:00Z, issued 29 Oct 19:27Z · Data: NOAA/SPC.

Everything on the map, as a list

SPC Day 3 categorical outlook: General Thunderstorms

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Saturday briefing

National maximum: General Thunderstorms

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

SPC: “Encloses a 10% or higher probability of thunderstorms.” SPC’s definitions

Where

The general thunderstorms area reaches parts of 18 states; the map shows where.

Which states 18

Parts of Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Oklahoma, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. Touching a state is not covering it: the map shows how much of each.

When

Timing, approximate: SPC’s summary: “Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.”

Outlook valid 31 Oct 12:00Z to 1 Nov 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive. This period has not begun.

Main hazards

Any severe hazard: under 5% everywhere: SPC drew no area.

Prepare

There is no safe place outside when thunderstorms are in the area. … When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors. NWS
Do NOT drive into flooded roadways or around a barricade; Turn Around, Don't Drown! NWS

In the National Weather Service’s words, from weather.gov.

Official discussion

SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook narrative, issued 29 Oct 19:28Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

000
ACUS03 KWNS 291928
SWODY3
SPC AC 291927

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough in the Northwest will amplify through the day on
Saturday. Within the subtropical jet, a shortwave trough will
continue northeastward towards the Baja Peninsula and will begin to
phase with the upper trough within the Great Basin.

Thunderstorms will be possible from the central/eastern Texas into
the Gulf Coast regions. Weak flow aloft will limit severe potential
with this activity. Additional convection will also occur ahead of
the trough moving into the Great Basin where temperatures aloft will
be cold (-18 to -22 C at 500 mb). While mid-level flow will be
strong in some areas, buoyancy will be too limited for a severe
risk.

..Wendt.. 10/29/2026

$$

SPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

SPC’s categorical outlook rates the coverage and intensity of organized severe storms on five levels, from Marginal (1) to High (5); “Thunderstorms” outlines a 10% or greater chance of thunderstorms and is not a severe category. Each probability is the chance of that hazard within 25 miles of a point during the valid period. An intensity overlay marks where significant severe hazards are more likely should storms occur. An outlook is a forecast; a warning means a storm is happening or imminent. SPC’s definitions.

Coming days · National

2026-10-30Severe storms: Marginal (1 of 5)Flash flooding: Slight (2 of 4)2026-10-30Severe storms: Marginal (1 of 5)Flash flooding: Slight (2 of 4)2026-10-31Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Slight (2 of 4)

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Watches & discussions

No active watches

1 mesoscale discussion

Discussion 2419: portions of central into northeastern Kansas, valid until 02:00Z. Chance SPC issues a watch: 20% (the chance a watch is issued, not the chance of a storm; no watch is in force from it)

Watches in the Live tracker Discussions in the Live tracker

What a watch and a discussion are

A watch says conditions favour severe storms over a wide area for hours; a warning means one is happening or imminent. A mesoscale discussion is the Storm Prediction Center’s note on an area it is watching, which may or may not lead to a watch.

Flash-flood risk

Slight risk of excessive rainfall at its highest, this period. WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook: a separate forecast with its own scale.

View flash-flood risk

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 29 Oct – 12Z 30 Oct

5 tornado · 1 wind · 0 hail

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms.

View reports: map, table & download

Warnings nationwide

24 warnings in 8 states

24 distinct warnings in effect. The Live tracker lists every one with its full text; the most urgent are here too.

NWS alerts checked 01:43Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 00:44Z: 1 warning ended.

Storms 0

None in effect.

Flooding 19

Other weather 5

Most warnings by state

Every warning, most urgent first, in the Live tracker

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.