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A flash flood warning in Guam. 70 warnings are in effect in 35 states and territories. 1 flash flood warning 1 typhoon warning 4 high wind warnings 1 tropical storm warning 10 river flood warnings 2 coastal flood warnings 1 high surf warning 44 freeze warnings 6 red flag warnings 35 states and territories (distinct warnings nationwide)

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NWS alerts checked 10:36Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 05:14Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 05:45Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 07:16Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 10:36Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 10:35Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 07:55Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 07:55Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 07:55Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / WPC selected forecast: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 10:36Z.

WPC selected forecast: Feed current; checked 10:35Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, Monday 19 Oct

Source: WPC

Forecast: WPC’s scale

1 · Marginal highest

View scale

1 · Marginal
2 · Slight (not outlined)
3 · Moderate (not outlined)
4 · High (not outlined)

WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 19 Oct 12:00Z to 20 Oct 12:00Z, issued 07:55Z · Data: NOAA/WPC.

Everything on the map, as a list

WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: Marginal

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Monday briefing

National maximum: Marginal (1 of 4)

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

WPC: “Isolated flash floods possible, mainly where heavy rain runs off quickly.” WPC’s definitions

Where

WPC’s headline: “.there is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall along the North Carolina outer banks monday into tuesday night.” The marginal area touches North Carolina and Virginia; it covers parts of those states, not all of them.

When

Timing, approximate: WPC’s summary: “Numerical guidance continues ti show an area of low pressure offshore, there has been high run to run variability in the east- to-west placement of the low and its associated rainfall. That will dictate whether heavy rain makes it onshore or not. …” The whole discussion

Outlook valid 19 Oct 12:00Z to 20 Oct 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive. This period has not begun.

Main hazards

Flash flooding: Marginal, at least a 5% chance within 40 km (25 mi) of a point. Isolated flash floods possible, mainly where heavy rain runs off quickly.

Prepare

There is no safe place outside when thunderstorms are in the area. … When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors. NWS
Do NOT drive into flooded roadways or around a barricade; Turn Around, Don't Drown! NWS

In the National Weather Service’s words, from weather.gov.

Official discussion

WPC Excessive Rainfall Discussion, Day 3, issued 08:23Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

Numerical guidance continues ti show an area of low pressure
offshore, there has been high run to run variability in the east-
to-west placement of the low and its associated rainfall. That will
dictate whether heavy rain makes it onshore or not. The 17/00Z GFS
inched closer to the Outer Banks while the 17/00Z ECMWF headed
farther out to sea showing the predictability of this system
improved little. The 17/00Z ECMWF AIFS and 17/00Z AIGFS remained
supportive of their control/operational runs respectively. As a
result...the Marginal Risk remained largely unchanged from
continuity.

Bann


Day 4 and Day 5

Valid 12Z Tue Oct 20 2026 - 12Z Thu Oct 22 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

...Southwest...
For Tuesday/Tuesday night, the Southwest is on the eastern
periphery of a deep layer cyclone/"outside slider" moving west of
CA. The atmosphere still doesn't appear to be sufficiently
saturated with 0.75-1" precipitable water values in an environment
with mild 1000-500 hPa thickness values. MU CAPE also appears
skimpy, with only small pockets of 250 J/kg forecast by the 00z
GFS. Continue not to carry a Marginal Risk since guidance is
maintaining serve over its past day of runs.

The situation changes markedly on Wednesday/Wednesday night, as
the deep layer cyclone approaches SoCal and scoops up moisture from
a dying Trudy and flings it into the Southwest. Near the cold low
itself, MU CAPE of 250-500 J/kg and precipitable water values of
1-1.3" with up to 30 kts of onshore flow at 850 hPa is forecast.
There's enough of a heavy rain signal for a Marginal Risk for the
Transverse and Peninsular Ranges, which is there to help cover burn
scar concerns. In and near the Four Corners, MU CAPE is forecast to
rise above 1000 J/kg, precipitable water values of 0.75-1.25" are
anticipated, and a few pieces of deterministic guidance are
definitely wet enough for a Marginal Risk with local 3-5" totals.
Hourly rain amounts to 2" would be possible across portions of AZ,
NM, and the Four Corners. It is possible that this area could carry
a greater risk as we move closer to this weather setup.

...Eastern NC/Southeast VA...
The guidance advertises a Nor'easter whose center is offshore North
Carolina, with an increasing signal for interior convection as
-18C air at 500 hPa moves over 28-29C sea surface temperatures
during the short range period and perhaps a convective comma
head/TROWAL which feeds off additional instability from the
western subtropical North Atlantic and tries to brush the NC
coast. The guidance has almost completely trended away from heavy
rainfall with the system Tuesday/Tuesday night, so removed the
Marginal Risk. Wednesday/Wednesday night is a question mark, as
the 00z Canadian guidance brings heavy rain back into eastern NC
at that time range. As most other guidance has left heavy rainfall
offshore, left any Marginal Risks out of the EROs for this system
for days 4-5. There is a non-zero chance of excessive rainfall/
flash flooding should a solution like the 00z Canadian come to
pass or the guidance tries to slosh/waver back westward in later
runs. Stay tuned.

Roth


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

WPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

The chance that rainfall exceeds flash flood guidance within 40 km (25 miles) of a point during the valid period, as WPC defines its categories. Marginal is at least 5%, Slight 15%, Moderate 40% and High 70%. WPC’s categories are separate from SPC’s severe-storm categories, and an outlook category is not a warning: a Flash Flood Warning means flooding is happening or imminent. WPC’s definitions.

Coming days · National

2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Slight (2 of 4)2026-10-18Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)2026-10-19Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Severe storms

General thunderstorms at its highest nationally. SPC’s convective outlook, on its own scale.

View severe outlook

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 16 Oct – 12Z 17 Oct

0 tornado · 33 wind · 0 hail

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings nationwide

70 warnings in 35 states

70 distinct warnings in effect. The Live tracker lists every one with its full text; the most urgent are here too.

NWS alerts checked 10:36Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 09:37Z: no change in the warnings.

Storms 0

None in effect.

Flooding 13

Other weather 57

Most warnings by state

Every warning, most urgent first, in the Live tracker

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.