Weather Center

Current alerts

A typhoon warning in Guam and Northern Mariana Islands. 67 warnings are in effect in 33 states and territories. 1 typhoon warning 4 high wind warnings 1 tropical storm warning 11 river flood warnings 1 coastal flood warning 1 high surf warning 42 freeze warnings 6 red flag warnings 33 states and territories (distinct warnings nationwide)

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NWS alerts checked 06:04Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Sources & update times

SPC Day 1 outlook issued 05:14Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 2 outlook issued 05:45Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:22Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC discussions checked 06:04Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

SPC storm reports checked 06:00Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

WPC Day 1 outlook issued 00:56Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 2 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

WPC Day 3 outlook issued 16 Oct 19:17Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

Each feed is judged on its own clock. The masthead’s reading is the site’s publishing health, which is a different thing: a publishing delay does not make a freshly read warning stale, and a fresh check does not make an old outlook newly issued.

NWS warnings / WPC selected forecast: feeds current

NWS warnings: Feed current; checked 06:04Z.

WPC selected forecast: Feed current; checked 06:00Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Hazard & forecast product

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, Saturday 17 Oct

Source: WPC

Forecast: WPC’s scale

1 · Marginal highest

View scale

1 · Marginal
2 · Slight (not outlined)
3 · Moderate (not outlined)
4 · High (not outlined)

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, valid 01:00Z to 12:00Z, issued 00:56Z · Data: NOAA/WPC.

Everything on the map, as a list

WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook: Marginal

Briefing details · Where, When, Main hazards

Saturday briefing

National maximum: Marginal (1 of 4)

This is the outlook, a forecast. Warnings in force here are listed above it and outrank it.

WPC: “Isolated flash floods possible, mainly where heavy rain runs off quickly.” WPC’s definitions

Where

WPC’s headline: “There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall across portions of Southeast Florida.” The marginal area touches Florida; it covers parts of that state, not all of it.

When

Timing, approximate: WPC’s summary: “Convection has generally peaked across FL, with the coverage of heavy rainfall expected to be on the decline overnight. …” The whole discussion

Outlook valid 01:00Z to 12:00Z: the period it covers, not when storms arrive.

Main hazards

Flash flooding: Marginal, at least a 5% chance within 40 km (25 mi) of a point. Isolated flash floods possible, mainly where heavy rain runs off quickly.

Prepare

Do NOT drive into flooded roadways or around a barricade; Turn Around, Don't Drown! NWS

In the National Weather Service’s words, from weather.gov.

What changed

Marginal area contracted by about three quarters and shifted southeast.

How this was compared

This issuance: 00:56Z. Earlier issuance: 16 Oct 15:52Z. The same product, WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, for the same day, ending 12:00Z; an outlook for another day is never compared with this one. WPC dates this day’s outlook from when each is issued, so this one runs from 01:00Z and the earlier one from 16 Oct 16:00Z. The whole outlook, measured in the map’s equal-area projection: an area is said to have grown or shrunk when it changes by a tenth and by 5,000 km², and to have moved when its centre moves 100 km.

Official discussion

WPC Excessive Rainfall Discussion, Day 1, issued 00:58Z · Data: NOAA/WPC

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

Convection has generally peaked across FL, with the coverage of
heavy rainfall expected to be on the decline overnight. A
localized urban flash flood risk may continue for a few more hours
across portions of the southeast coast of FL where slow moving
cells could drop 2-3" of rain in an hour. Coastal convergence, and
outflow driven convergence from the convection over the center of
state, are allowing for some modest expansion of these slow moving
cells. This activity should also tend to weaken in intensity within
a few hours.

Chenard

WPC’s outlook page

Forecast details

The chance that rainfall exceeds flash flood guidance within 40 km (25 miles) of a point during the valid period, as WPC defines its categories. Marginal is at least 5%, Slight 15%, Moderate 40% and High 70%. WPC’s categories are separate from SPC’s severe-storm categories, and an outlook category is not a warning: a Flash Flood Warning means flooding is happening or imminent. WPC’s definitions.

Coming days · National

2026-10-17Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)2026-10-18Severe storms: No severe area outlinedFlash flooding: Marginal (1 of 4)

These are daily outlooks, not arrival times. Days 4–8 retain SPC’s predictability and potential-too-low wording in the dated outlook controls.

Severe storms

SPC’s outlook is not reported. SPC’s convective outlook, on its own scale.

View severe outlook

Recent reports

Reporting period: 12Z 16 Oct – 12Z 17 Oct

0 tornado · 33 wind · 0 hail

Preliminary reports: a count of reports, not of storms.

View reports: map, table & download

No watches or mesoscale discussions. Watches, discussions and warnings in the Live tracker

Warnings nationwide

67 warnings in 33 states

67 distinct warnings in effect. The Live tracker lists every one with its full text; the most urgent are here too.

NWS alerts checked 06:04Z · Data: NOAA/NWS

Since 05:05Z: no change in the warnings.

Storms 0

None in effect.

Flooding 12

Other weather 55

Most warnings by state

Every warning, most urgent first, in the Live tracker

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.