District of ColumbiaSite status

Severe weather analysis

Observations and analyses of the atmosphere now, from NWS, WPC and SPC. Not a forecast and not a warning: for those, see the Briefing and the Live tracker.

SPC storm ingredients: feeds current

SPC storm ingredients: Feed current; checked .

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Storm ingredients: SPC’s hourly analysis

SPC mesoanalysis map, Mixed-layer CAPE and CIN, East Central region, analysis for 04Z. Its key and units are in SPC’s picture; what it shows is described beside it.
Analysis SPC mesoanalysis for . The East Central region. Data: NOAA/SPC.

Instability: Mixed-layer CAPE and CIN (J/kg)

How much energy a rising parcel of air near the ground would have. More means stronger updrafts if storms form; the shaded cap (CIN) is what has to be overcome first, and storms may not form at all.

The technical reading

MLCAPE: convective available potential energy of a parcel with the mean properties of the lowest 100 mb, contoured in J/kg. MLCIN, shaded, is the convective inhibition below the level of free convection. Values over about 1,000 J/kg are moderate and over 2,500 large; under strong CIN a high CAPE can stay unused.

An ingredient, not a forecast: SPC’s analysis of the hour, from observations and a short-range model’s first guess. No one value is a warning or an outcome; storms need several ingredients together, and something to start them.

SPC mesoanalysis checked · Data: NOAA/SPC

District of Columbia briefing

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.