Data health

Storm Mode / Tracked area

Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma

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STORM MODEWeather tracking workspace

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Layers

Map

NWS’s polygons as issued, or the zones a zone-issued alert names; SPC’s watches by their counties. Checked . Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC.

Agency warning geometry · no observed imagery displayed
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Interactive imagery loads separately. Missing radar does not remove warnings or imply clear weather.

Alert outlines: NOAA/NWS; cell points/observed segments: IEM/NEXRAD. A warning polygon is not a tornado footprint.

Lightning activity — GOES GLM

Total lightning, including in-cloud activity. Not ground-strike locations or a safe-to-go-outside signal.

Cached lightning observations have not loaded. An empty map is not zero lightning.

Cached lightning source details and text readings

Snow analysis — NOHRSC

Source-rendered snow depth and snow water equivalent for the lower 48. History changes this snow picture only; warnings and radar keep their own clocks.

Stored snow depth · footprint valid 2026-10-21 06:00:00 UTC, picture retrieved 2026-10-21 16:08:06.926 UTC.

No NOHRSC picture displayed on the interactive map.

  • 0 - 0.39 in
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  • 20 - 39 in
  • 39 - 59 in
  • 59 - 98 in
  • 98 - 197 in
  • 197 - 295 in
  • 295 - 394 in
  • 394 - 787 in
NOHRSC snow analysis for the lower 48; see the adjacent source legend and time qualification
NOAA/NWS/NOHRSC’s original picture and legend. No station or address value is inferred.

NOHRSC footprint times are metadata; pixel analysis time is not independently verified. Snow-depth pixels have previously differed from the footprint time. This is modeled/assimilated snow analysis, not a measurement at a place. Unshaded and no-data areas do not establish zero snow.

Snow pictures, retained history and source provenance

Change time or forecast product

Recorded weather · gaps are marked. Coverage begins with recording activation.

Live sources keep independent clocks.

Replay coverage and interpretation

Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.

Current GLM density, velocity and specialist layers are hidden during replay. Snow uses retained footprint metadata with unverified pixel time. Forecast uses one pinned issuance/run and exact valid time.

No observed replay frame displayed.

Open the complete replay reader (works without scripting or WebGL)
Radar-derived cells (0) · current

Collector checked ; feed generated . Zero cells does not establish coverage or clear weather. Observations from different radars are not merged.

    Station and river observations (143)

    Surface source current; observed water-level source current. Each reading keeps its own time. Map markers show at most 500 stations and 500 gauges; the complete source directory is paginated.

    Circle: surface station; square: water-level gauge. Filled: current reading and source; hollow: stale, unconfirmed or missing observation. Marker color is not a hazard category. Enable “Stations and gauges” in Layers to inspect them on the map.

    Showing 100 of 143 listed sources. All surface stations and retained trends · All supported gauges and forecasts

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    Surface station KHBR

    current · Observed 2026-10-21 15:53:00 UTC · wind 11 kt · temperature 20.6 °C.

    Station KHBR · -99.0528, 34.9891 (longitude, latitude).

    Source checked 2026-10-21 16:30:05.131Z · current.

    Station observations, not an address forecast or cyclone maximum wind. Maintenance-flagged, old and implausible reports are excluded by the existing parser; this is not independent NWS quality control.

    Retained observations: 25; target 24 hours, at most 96 reports per station. Recording began 2026-10-17 06:15:07.108Z; oldest available reading 2026-10-20 16:53:00 UTC.

    Observed sustained wind at KHBR (kt)Dots are retained observations. Lines break for missing fields, long intervals or changed station location or units. 2 recorded discontinuities. Dashed lines, when present, are the separately issued NWS forecast.165kt10-20 16:53Z10-21 15:53Z2026-10-20 16:53:00 UTC · 15 kt2026-10-20 17:53:00 UTC · 14 kt2026-10-20 18:53:00 UTC · 11 kt2026-10-20 19:53:00 UTC · 12 kt2026-10-20 20:21:00 UTC · 13 kt2026-10-20 20:53:00 UTC · 10 kt2026-10-20 21:53:00 UTC · 10 kt2026-10-20 22:53:00 UTC · 10 kt2026-10-20 23:53:00 UTC · 7 kt2026-10-21 00:53:00 UTC · 10 kt2026-10-21 02:53:00 UTC · 8 kt2026-10-21 03:53:00 UTC · 9 kt2026-10-21 04:53:00 UTC · 6 kt2026-10-21 05:53:00 UTC · 9 kt2026-10-21 06:53:00 UTC · 8 kt2026-10-21 07:53:00 UTC · 11 kt2026-10-21 08:53:00 UTC · 10 kt2026-10-21 09:53:00 UTC · 9 kt2026-10-21 10:53:00 UTC · 12 kt2026-10-21 11:53:00 UTC · 10 kt2026-10-21 12:53:00 UTC · 8 kt2026-10-21 13:53:00 UTC · 8 kt2026-10-21 14:53:00 UTC · 12 kt2026-10-21 15:53:00 UTC · 11 kt
    Observed sustained wind · 24 retained observations; 2 discontinuities. Lines join reported values only; missing intervals are not interpolated.
    Temperature, dew point and pressure trends
    Observed temperature at KHBR (°C)Dots are retained observations. Lines break for missing fields, long intervals or changed station location or units. 0 recorded discontinuities. Dashed lines, when present, are the separately issued NWS forecast.25.412.9°C10-20 16:53Z10-21 15:53Z2026-10-20 16:53:00 UTC · 20 °C2026-10-20 17:53:00 UTC · 21.1 °C2026-10-20 18:53:00 UTC · 21.7 °C2026-10-20 19:53:00 UTC · 23.3 °C2026-10-20 20:21:00 UTC · 23.3 °C2026-10-20 20:53:00 UTC · 23.9 °C2026-10-20 21:53:00 UTC · 24.4 °C2026-10-20 22:53:00 UTC · 23.9 °C2026-10-20 23:53:00 UTC · 21.1 °C2026-10-21 00:53:00 UTC · 20 °C2026-10-21 01:53:00 UTC · 18.9 °C2026-10-21 02:53:00 UTC · 17.8 °C2026-10-21 03:53:00 UTC · 17.2 °C2026-10-21 04:53:00 UTC · 15.6 °C2026-10-21 05:53:00 UTC · 15.6 °C2026-10-21 06:53:00 UTC · 15.6 °C2026-10-21 07:53:00 UTC · 15 °C2026-10-21 08:53:00 UTC · 15 °C2026-10-21 09:53:00 UTC · 14.4 °C2026-10-21 10:53:00 UTC · 13.9 °C2026-10-21 11:53:00 UTC · 13.9 °C2026-10-21 12:53:00 UTC · 13.9 °C2026-10-21 13:53:00 UTC · 16.1 °C2026-10-21 14:53:00 UTC · 18.9 °C2026-10-21 15:53:00 UTC · 20.6 °C
    Observed temperature · 25 retained observations; 0 discontinuities. Lines join reported values only; missing intervals are not interpolated.
    Observed dew point at KHBR (°C)Dots are retained observations. Lines break for missing fields, long intervals or changed station location or units. 0 recorded discontinuities. Dashed lines, when present, are the separately issued NWS forecast.13.86.8°C10-20 16:53Z10-21 15:53Z2026-10-20 16:53:00 UTC · 10.6 °C2026-10-20 17:53:00 UTC · 12.2 °C2026-10-20 18:53:00 UTC · 12.8 °C2026-10-20 19:53:00 UTC · 11.7 °C2026-10-20 20:21:00 UTC · 11.7 °C2026-10-20 20:53:00 UTC · 11.1 °C2026-10-20 21:53:00 UTC · 11.1 °C2026-10-20 22:53:00 UTC · 11.1 °C2026-10-20 23:53:00 UTC · 12.8 °C2026-10-21 00:53:00 UTC · 12.2 °C2026-10-21 01:53:00 UTC · 12.2 °C2026-10-21 02:53:00 UTC · 11.7 °C2026-10-21 03:53:00 UTC · 11.1 °C2026-10-21 04:53:00 UTC · 11.1 °C2026-10-21 05:53:00 UTC · 10.6 °C2026-10-21 06:53:00 UTC · 10 °C2026-10-21 07:53:00 UTC · 9.4 °C2026-10-21 08:53:00 UTC · 8.9 °C2026-10-21 09:53:00 UTC · 8.3 °C2026-10-21 10:53:00 UTC · 8.3 °C2026-10-21 11:53:00 UTC · 8.3 °C2026-10-21 12:53:00 UTC · 8.3 °C2026-10-21 13:53:00 UTC · 8.3 °C2026-10-21 14:53:00 UTC · 7.8 °C2026-10-21 15:53:00 UTC · 9.4 °C
    Observed dew point · 25 retained observations; 0 discontinuities. Lines join reported values only; missing intervals are not interpolated.
    Observed sea-level pressure at KHBR (mb)Dots are retained observations. Lines break for missing fields, long intervals or changed station location or units. 2 recorded discontinuities. Dashed lines, when present, are the separately issued NWS forecast.1024.51019.7mb10-20 16:53Z10-21 15:53Z2026-10-20 16:53:00 UTC · 1023.5 mb2026-10-20 17:53:00 UTC · 1023.3 mb2026-10-20 18:53:00 UTC · 1022.4 mb2026-10-20 19:53:00 UTC · 1021.5 mb2026-10-20 20:53:00 UTC · 1020.9 mb2026-10-20 21:53:00 UTC · 1020.9 mb2026-10-20 22:53:00 UTC · 1020.8 mb2026-10-20 23:53:00 UTC · 1020.7 mb2026-10-21 00:53:00 UTC · 1020.7 mb2026-10-21 01:53:00 UTC · 1021.1 mb2026-10-21 02:53:00 UTC · 1021.2 mb2026-10-21 03:53:00 UTC · 1021.3 mb2026-10-21 04:53:00 UTC · 1021.8 mb2026-10-21 05:53:00 UTC · 1021.4 mb2026-10-21 06:53:00 UTC · 1021 mb2026-10-21 07:53:00 UTC · 1021 mb2026-10-21 08:53:00 UTC · 1021 mb2026-10-21 09:53:00 UTC · 1020.7 mb2026-10-21 10:53:00 UTC · 1020.8 mb2026-10-21 11:53:00 UTC · 1021.4 mb2026-10-21 12:53:00 UTC · 1022 mb2026-10-21 13:53:00 UTC · 1022 mb2026-10-21 14:53:00 UTC · 1022.5 mb2026-10-21 15:53:00 UTC · 1022.4 mb
    Observed sea-level pressure · 24 retained observations; 2 discontinuities. Lines join reported values only; missing intervals are not interpolated.
    Observed reports as a table (25)
    Observed (UTC)Wind / gust (kt)From (° true)Temperature / dew point (°C)Pressure (mb)Visibility (mi)
    2026-10-20 16:53:00 UTC15 / Not reported18020 / 10.61023.510 or more
    2026-10-20 17:53:00 UTC14 / Not reported19021.1 / 12.21023.310 or more
    2026-10-20 18:53:00 UTC11 / Not reported19021.7 / 12.81022.410 or more
    2026-10-20 19:53:00 UTC12 / Not reported21023.3 / 11.71021.510 or more
    2026-10-20 20:21:00 UTC13 / 21 19023.3 / 11.7Not reported10 or more
    2026-10-20 20:53:00 UTC10 / Not reported19023.9 / 11.11020.910 or more
    2026-10-20 21:53:00 UTC10 / Not reported19024.4 / 11.11020.910 or more
    2026-10-20 22:53:00 UTC10 / Not reported18023.9 / 11.11020.810 or more
    2026-10-20 23:53:00 UTC7 / Not reported17021.1 / 12.81020.710 or more
    2026-10-21 00:53:00 UTC10 / Not reported15020 / 12.21020.710 or more
    2026-10-21 01:53:00 UTCNot reported / Not reportedNot reported18.9 / 12.21021.110 or more
    2026-10-21 02:53:00 UTC8 / Not reported15017.8 / 11.71021.210 or more
    2026-10-21 03:53:00 UTC9 / Not reported16017.2 / 11.11021.310 or more
    2026-10-21 04:53:00 UTC6 / Not reported17015.6 / 11.11021.810 or more
    2026-10-21 05:53:00 UTC9 / Not reported17015.6 / 10.61021.410 or more
    2026-10-21 06:53:00 UTC8 / Not reported18015.6 / 10102110 or more
    2026-10-21 07:53:00 UTC11 / Not reported18015 / 9.4102110 or more
    2026-10-21 08:53:00 UTC10 / Not reported19015 / 8.9102110 or more
    2026-10-21 09:53:00 UTC9 / Not reported18014.4 / 8.31020.710 or more
    2026-10-21 10:53:00 UTC12 / Not reported18013.9 / 8.31020.810 or more
    2026-10-21 11:53:00 UTC10 / Not reported19013.9 / 8.31021.410 or more
    2026-10-21 12:53:00 UTC8 / Not reported19013.9 / 8.3102210 or more
    2026-10-21 13:53:00 UTC8 / Not reported18016.1 / 8.3102210 or more
    2026-10-21 14:53:00 UTC12 / Not reported18018.9 / 7.81022.510 or more
    2026-10-21 15:53:00 UTC11 / Not reported19020.6 / 9.41022.410 or more
    Capture times, quality and provenance

    Each report keeps its observation time, first capture of this version, and the SHA-256 of the source bulk body. Corrections at the same observation time replace that point and are marked; unrelated bulk-file changes do not freshen a report.

    • Observed 2026-10-20 16:53:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-20 17:00:07.324Z; source body SHA-256 ce0a1e702449b11968383f3ae80ac696609b0cf2564dd71aec6f3be859c4dc1a.
    • Observed 2026-10-20 17:53:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-20 18:00:09.678Z; source body SHA-256 a21a43857311dac4a075fd469885778232980db68f851f79c203706c32cd762c.
    • Observed 2026-10-20 18:53:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-20 19:00:07.464Z; source body SHA-256 35dd21cabd2ee3d9596dc1c69a677eca6c4dc8a2345e2926a6d6120e43983925.
    • Observed 2026-10-20 19:53:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-20 20:00:10.022Z; source body SHA-256 a0d35d73a394fc555e2fc1936c8bfb6ee4349d8eb1dfa9bd55c080086e6c1cc1.
    • Observed 2026-10-20 20:21:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-20 20:30:06.794Z; source body SHA-256 e2e25685d44b8b7dfc29826dbd3099f88b10ada31592dba2a71de9eb71b7357a.
    • Observed 2026-10-20 20:53:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-20 21:00:07.110Z; source body SHA-256 29a0c75122bb0a0b855cf2d1bbf93191e92fd9a01efa9f9c3bcf10382d7e8308.
    • Observed 2026-10-20 21:53:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-20 22:00:07.189Z; source body SHA-256 2c6d92ab11d3c73c4bb63ca2457f58719c99e13d321fc1b3a7e85ff6f4d1677f.
    • Observed 2026-10-20 22:53:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-20 23:00:07.623Z; source body SHA-256 038513053aff16e3eefd9d61284a5a86c8d890e1d4720acc6c0501eaacba434c.
    • Observed 2026-10-20 23:53:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-21 00:00:08.315Z; source body SHA-256 a303db758dab98ed35dc8eeef994a9da346ce5abd646a6ce99cd10f6121000bf.
    • Observed 2026-10-21 00:53:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-21 01:00:11.106Z; source body SHA-256 4681b119092977d6c757689a652d328d8d3112ae3e49b53c8176ac43ecdff582.
    • Observed 2026-10-21 01:53:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-21 02:00:07.206Z; source body SHA-256 da483ed2ba507ced7e83227c6c78a0fea9ae07e5b28de162f256a77d819f7fa4.
    • Observed 2026-10-21 02:53:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-21 03:00:07.912Z; source body SHA-256 eec0e45ec1b8d2da7c97f9c23f178b06730f4df521b82087401d78a04bccd978.
    • Observed 2026-10-21 03:53:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-21 04:00:09.575Z; source body SHA-256 aba5ed0867f84e906936c858600801946e180c99d57cc199821a1c0ea881146b.
    • Observed 2026-10-21 04:53:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-21 05:00:08.085Z; source body SHA-256 c30f2ece530e29e914e4612aee6217d0ef20c93d36a59f1f6cf08f78325415aa.
    • Observed 2026-10-21 05:53:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-21 06:00:08.316Z; source body SHA-256 4ec22204d03a20563a981e856c071817d22269333acaa0048376142ef500b70c.
    • Observed 2026-10-21 06:53:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-21 07:00:08.206Z; source body SHA-256 f0fe2ee3408208f357539ab09d9dab30f33ee6d658694bc69fd88fa9165e425d.
    • Observed 2026-10-21 07:53:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-21 08:00:12.419Z; source body SHA-256 d8f4b7e1c17ccf0bbfd53d7533c41fe8ad85d18c771d221aa642d7e345dd0744.
    • Observed 2026-10-21 08:53:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-21 09:00:08.936Z; source body SHA-256 2bfa94423f4c95935570dfb7146d1568141e2268155da7c79244b836b167a00e.
    • Observed 2026-10-21 09:53:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-21 10:00:08.887Z; source body SHA-256 2d1f91b0cb4963ca02dcf586b688629fd8b8448752351529f10442536f9ee258.
    • Observed 2026-10-21 10:53:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-21 11:00:09.183Z; source body SHA-256 ca6845a1c3c84d47b78dd3143602d144d469d66474e0a99fe93b2eebfb2c47ff.
    • Observed 2026-10-21 11:53:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-21 12:00:09.217Z; source body SHA-256 ac6ed141e3de5dc581366151644afd63f46fe140657240d79c3a665c34f409ed.
    • Observed 2026-10-21 12:53:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-21 13:00:13.875Z; source body SHA-256 cb5bb8c041b6711d4e1ae121995247b2eab84672ab4f5e7178c2f223d482b18b.
    • Observed 2026-10-21 13:53:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-21 14:00:08.826Z; source body SHA-256 a554e06f3a17a2f7c81dd773dd6de277c15958d93f67dde6ae58e4bc7d119c03.
    • Observed 2026-10-21 14:53:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-21 15:00:09.558Z; source body SHA-256 d898ced33868831ba376a24483615f10c981b677630d6a208f8c9b179e4c84aa.
    • Observed 2026-10-21 15:53:00 UTC, captured 2026-10-21 16:00:07.953Z; source body SHA-256 f0abea70cb19d7daf53a0e2921b7046350b24cbcd25b70e48fbc07e371d6835c.

    Values use the decoded station report. Null means not reported, never zero. Gust is kept separate from sustained wind.

    Observation source page · Cached readings as JSON · Official source

    Recent changes

    No retained alert changes in this monitoring area. This is not proof that nothing changed.

    Source collection activity (30)
    • gauges forecast · source revision · collected
    • gauge details · source revision · collected
    • gauges observed · source revision · collected
    • office afd · source revision · collected
    • radar alerts · source revision · collected
    • radar alerts · source revision · collected
    • day1 hail · source revision · collected
    • day1 tornado · source revision · collected
    • day1 categorical · source revision · collected
    • day1 wind · source revision · collected
    • day1 narrative · source revision · collected
    • radar alerts · source revision · collected

    A new collection or source revision does not establish a consequential weather change.

    Recording coverage and limits
    • warnings: retained from 2026-10-20T16:36:13.443Z through 2026-10-21T16:36:03.649Z
    • outlooks: retained from 2026-10-20T16:36:13.443Z through 2026-10-21T16:35:05.582Z
    • hydro: retained from 2026-10-20T16:36:13.443Z through 2026-10-21T16:35:06.238Z
    • analysis: retained from 2026-10-20T16:36:13.443Z through 2026-10-21T16:30:06.579Z
    • winter: retained from 2026-10-20T16:36:13.443Z through 2026-10-21T16:23:05.322Z

    Source changes and imagery have separate recording coverage. Open Replay for retained weather frames.

    Checks every minute; each layer keeps its own time.

    Spotlight: SPC Day 1 outlook

    1 of 15

    SPC Day 1 outlook

    • General Thunderstorms Risk
    • Marginal Risk
    • Slight Risk
    • Enhanced Risk

    SPC’s Day 1 categorical outlook, valid to , issued . SPC’s categories, as drawn. Data: NOAA/SPC.

    Watches

    No tornado or severe thunderstorm watch in force in this area.

    SPC’s watches, by number, matched by the counties they list. Data: NOAA/SPC.

    Mesoscale discussions

    No mesoscale discussion reaches this area.

    SPC’s mesoscale discussions whose outline reaches the area. Data: NOAA/SPC.

    Storm ingredients

    SPC’s hourly mesoanalysis, observed soundings and model guidance for the area, on the Analysis tab with its own clocks.

    Open the Analysis tab

    Drawn by the Analysis tab’s own renderer. Data: NOAA/SPC, NOAA/NCEP.

    Flash-flood risk, Day 1

    • Marginal
    • Slight
    • Slight
    • Slight

    WPC’s excessive rainfall outlook, to , issued : a chance of flash flooding, in four categories. Data: NOAA/WPC.

    River gauges in flood

    No river, coastal or lake gauge in this area is in flood, observed or forecast.

    NWS’s gauges at flood stage or above in the area, worst first, each with its forecast hydrograph on Rain & rivers. Data: NOAA/NWPS.

    Rain expected and rain that fell

    WPC’s rain forecast and MRMS’s radar estimate of the rain that fell, on the Briefing’s map for the area.

    Open Rain & rivers

    Data: NOAA/WPC, NOAA/NSSL MRMS.

    Winter Storm Severity Index

    WPC: “WSSI does not depict official warnings and should always be used in context with official NWS forecasts and warnings.”

    • Winter Weather Area
    • Minor Impacts
    • Moderate Impacts
    • Major Impacts
    • Extreme Impacts

    Highest in this area, by day and by cause

    Day 1
    nothing drawn
    Day 2
    nothing drawn
    Day 3
    nothing drawn
    Snow amount, Days 1–3
    nothing drawn
    Snow load, Days 1–3
    nothing drawn
    Ice, Days 1–3
    nothing drawn
    Blowing snow, Days 1–3
    nothing drawn

    Each day and cause on the Winter tab, with its own issue time

    WPC’s WSSI, overall impact, Days 1–3, valid to , issued . WPC issues each day and cause on its own clock. Not a warning, and not a chance. Data: NOAA/NWS/WPC.

    Chance of Moderate impacts or worse, Day 1

    WPC: “WSSI does not depict official warnings and should always be used in context with official NWS forecasts and warnings.”

    • 5–10%
    • 10–20%
    • 20–30%
    • 30–40%
    • 40–50%
    • 50–60%
    • 60–70%
    • 70–80%
    • 80–90%
    • 90–95%
    • 95% or more

    Each level and day on the Winter tab

    WPC’s WSSI-P, the 24 hours to , WPC’s forecast from . Each band runs to the next. Data: NOAA/NWS/WPC.

    Chance of at least 4 inches of snow, Day 1

    WPC gives no chance of 4 inches of snow or more in this area over the next three days, so Day 1’s 4 inches is shown.

    • Slight: at least 10%
    • Moderate: at least 40%
    • High: at least 70%

    Every day and amount on the Winter tab

    WPC’s Probabilistic Winter Precipitation Forecast, to , issued . Outlines, as WPC draws them. Data: NOAA/NWS/WPC.

    Winter watches, warnings and advisories

    No winter or cold watch, warning or advisory in force in this area.

    NWS’s winter and cold alerts in force in the area, by event as issued, each counted once, with the offices that issued them and the latest end. Data: NOAA/NWS.

    Snow on the ground

    NOHRSC snow depth and snow water equivalent use the source’s original pictures and legends, with qualified footprint times. Open the cached source page for availability and retained history. This wall has no snow picture to rotate; missing imagery does not mean no snow.

    NOHRSC snow analysis and retained pictures

    Data: NOAA/NWS/NOHRSC. Snow analysis, not a measurement at a place.

    WPC’s heavy snow and icing discussion

    Southern Sierra Nevada Days 1-2

    The closed upper-low off the Southern CA coast will direct a plume of tropical moisture at the Southwest U.S. today and into Thursday. Some of this moisture source will be directed at the southern Sierra Nevada where a combination of topographically-induced upslope flow and synoptic scale support in the form of a 120kt+ 250mb jet streak will aid in enhanced precipitation rates and mountain snow. Latest 00Z HREF/REFS probabilistic guidance shows low-to-moderate chances (30-50%) for >1"/hr snowfall rates Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. These snowfall rates will be observed higher up in the southern Sierra Nevada with most areas above 9,000ft witnessing these potential snowfall rates. Snow is expected to taper off Thursday night. The Probabilistic Precipitation Portal (PPP) does show moderate-to-high chances (50-80%) for snowfall totals >6" above 9,000ft in elevation, with low chances (10-30%) for snowfall amounts exceeding 12" above 11,000ft. The WSSI shows Minor Impacts are anticipated for elevations at/above 9,000ft, indicating winter driving conditions are expected and to exercise caution when driving in at those elevations.

    ...Central Rockies... Days 2-3...

    The same closed low responsible for the heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada will work in tandem with upper-level ridging over the South Central U.S. to project an impressive IVT into the Intermountain West. By 18Z Thursday, the IVT is surpassing 500 kg/m/s in eastern AZ and eastern UT, which is surpassing the maximum observed values in the CFSR climatology (1979-2009). This highly anomalous moisture transport will upslope into various mountain ranges throughout the Intermountain West (San Juan, NV Great Basin ridge, Wasatch, Wind River, Tetons, Absaroka). Most accumulations will be on the minor side given the lack of a sufficiently cold air-mass. Thursday is the snowier day for the San Juan Mountains, while Friday is the snowier day for the mountains ranges across UT, NV, ID, southwest MT, and western WY.

    Latest PPP shows low-to-moderate chances (30-50%) for snowfall totals >6" in the more remote elevations of the San Juan, Teton, Wind River, and Absaroka Ranges. Localized snowfall amounts approaching 12" in the peaks on the San Juan Mountains are possible, especially where hourly snowfall rates >1"/hr occur. The WSSI-P shows

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