Super Typhoon Champi

130 kt · 150 mph · 931 hPa · W at 12 kt

Storm Mode · JTWC Warning 16 · 06:00Z

Latest published advisory

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JTWC forecast for Super Typhoon Champi, Warning 16; rendered by MaverickWX

Published advisory track · Warning 16

Observed imagery loads separately from the advisory. The base map is not observed satellite imagery.

JTWC supplies no cone for this issuance; none is invented.

MaverickWX map · Data: JTWC · not an official graphic

Change time or forecast product

Replay uses retained source bytes. Recording begins with activation; missing history is not clear weather.

Live sources keep independent clocks.

Replay coverage and interpretation

Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.

Current GLM density, velocity and specialist layers are hidden during replay. Snow uses retained footprint metadata with unverified pixel time. Forecast uses one pinned issuance/run and exact valid time.

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Use Forecast above to pin an official issuance and valid point. The forecast table and advisory history remain available below.

Analysis and model context

Current cached context, independently dated. Regional reference: MP; a reference within a wider monitoring area does not replace the complete warning geography. This section remains separate from the historical replay cursor and official cyclone forecast. Use Forecast to pin a retained model package.

Model guidance: what the models forecast

REFS · Rotating storms · initialized 00:00Z · valid 09:00Z

REFS / HRRR: feeds current

REFS: Feed current; checked 07:45Z.

HRRR: Feed current; checked 07:45Z.

Checked means retrieved, not newly issued. Each graphic retains its issue, observation, initialization or valid time. Site publishing status is separate.

Forecast REFS run 00:00Z, hour +9, valid 09:00Z. Chance of a rotating updraft nearby (2–5 km updraft helicity over 75 m²/s² in the hour). Data: NOAA/NCEP.

Rotating storms

How many of the ensemble’s members grow a storm with a strongly rotating updraft near each point in the hour: the model’s sign of a supercell, which can bring tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind.

A forecast’s own uncertainty, not a forecast of coverage: REFS is a set of runs of NCEP’s RRFS model, each started a little differently, and the share is how many of them put the event near a point. 30% is three runs in ten. It is guidance forecasters weigh, not SPC’s outlook and not a warning.

Share of members

10–30%
30–50%
50–70%
70–90%
90% or more
under 10%: not drawn

In Northern Mariana Islands: under 10% of members anywhere in the state.

Highest anywhere in the hour: 45.5% of members.

Pre-operational: NCEP’s parallel REFS, which it plans to make operational on 3 November 2026 (Service Change Notice 26-48). Until then it may be late, missing or changed without notice.

Compare REFS and HRRR context

Model, field & forecast hours

Retention & comparison limits

Only rolling current frames and limited previous copies are retained. Complete historical runs are not archived, so two-run comparison is unavailable. Only the published forecast hours are stepped; gaps are explicit. Rainfall uses WPC’s existing forecast, not an unprovided model rainfall field.

REFS (NOMADS) checked 07:45Z · Data: NOAA/NCEP

HRRR pictures (MAG) checked 07:45Z · Data: NOAA/NCEP

Storm details

JTWC Warning 16 · 06:00Z

Center position: 13.1°N, 142.3°E
Minimum pressure: 931 hPa
Maximum sustained wind: 130 kt · 150 mph
Movement: W at 12 kt
Change from comparison: Wind 0 kt · pressure -3 hPa
Compared with Warning 14 · 17 Oct 18:00Z

Read official warning (JTWC) ↗

Forecast cycle 06:00Z. Center position belongs to the official state’s time, not imagery time.

Watched places

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Advisory comparison

Compare with

Show previous forecast as a dashed line

Solid: Warning 16 · 06:00Z
Dashed: Warning 14 · 17 Oct 18:00Z

Compare positions and intensity

Solid: JTWC Warning 16 · 06:00Z
Dashed: JTWC Warning 14 · 17 Oct 18:00Z. Comparison uses each record’s own geometry. A revision is not a landfall or impact prediction.

Current-state revision (two separate official issuances)
Field	Selected issuance	Comparison issuance	Change
Maximum sustained wind	130 kt · 150 mph	130 kt · 150 mph	0 kt
Minimum pressure	931 hPa	934 hPa	-3 hPa
Center position	13.1°N, 142.3°E	13.1°N, 144.8°E	Different observation times; not a forecast shift

Official forecast revisions at matching valid times
Valid time	Selected position / wind	Previous position / wind	Wind revision
18:00Z	13.8°N, 140.2°E 120 kt · 138 mph	14.2°N, 140.5°E 135 kt · 155 mph	-15 kt
19 Oct 06:00Z	14.7°N, 138.3°E 125 kt · 144 mph	15.1°N, 138.5°E 140 kt · 161 mph	-15 kt
19 Oct 18:00Z	15.7°N, 136.2°E 135 kt · 155 mph	16.1°N, 136.4°E 140 kt · 161 mph	-5 kt
20 Oct 06:00Z	16.7°N, 133.9°E 140 kt · 161 mph	17.1°N, 134.0°E 135 kt · 155 mph	+5 kt
20 Oct 18:00Z	17.8°N, 131.4°E 135 kt · 155 mph	18.2°N, 131.4°E 135 kt · 155 mph	0 kt

Data coverage

JTWC has no NHC cone, NHC wind probabilities or NHC civil coastal warnings. Local national services remain the warning authorities.

Geographic context: Natural Earth boundaries and representative place labels. Radar coverage is limited offshore. Satellite pixels keep their source palette and actual observation time. Missing imagery is not clear weather.

Lightning activity — GOES GLM

Total lightning, including in-cloud activity. Not ground-strike locations or a safe-to-go-outside signal.

Public event region Aggregation interval Show density on map

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Cached lightning source details and text readings

Map layers, imagery opacity and source clocks

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Potential impacts and monitoring context

Current NWS monitoring states: GU, MP

Coastal alertsLocal national warning authorities apply Flooding rainOfficial rainfall context and coverage Storm surgeAvailability and coastal-only product limits Nearby severe warnings0 severe/flash-flood warnings in the named monitoring area · source current

Current warnings in the monitoring area

U.S. territories JTWC’s forecast track passes within 300 nm of, Warning 16: Guam and Northern Mariana Islands. Current geographical context; these alerts are not attributed to the cyclone.

In force in this area 4

Typhoon Warning1until 16:45Z
Coastal Flood Warning1until 18:00Z
High Surf Warning1until 18:00Z
Flood Watch1until 18:00Z

Every alert in this area, most urgent first

Typhoon WarningGuam; Rota; Guam Coastal Waters; Rota Coastal Watersuntil 16:45Z · NWS Tiyan GU
Coastal Flood WarningGuam; Rotauntil 18:00Z · NWS Tiyan GU
High Surf WarningGuam; Rotauntil 18:00Z · NWS Tiyan GU
Flood WatchGuam; Rotauntil 18:00Z · NWS Tiyan GU

Most urgent first, by the Briefing’s ranking. Checked 07:46Z.

Typhoon Warning
Guam; Rota; Guam Coastal Waters; Rota Coastal Waters
Typhoon Warning issued October 18 at 3:01PM ChST by NWS Tiyan GU
Issued 17 Oct 12:39Z · ends 16:45Z
Official Typhoon Warning bulletin
Coastal Flood Warning
Guam; Rota
Coastal Flood Warning issued October 18 at 12:00PM ChST until October 19 at 4:00AM ChST by NWS Tiyan GU
Issued 17 Oct 21:55Z · ends 18:00Z
Official Coastal Flood Warning bulletin
High Surf Warning
Guam; Rota
High Surf Warning issued October 18 at 12:00PM ChST until October 19 at 4:00AM ChST by NWS Tiyan GU
Issued 17 Oct 21:55Z · ends 18:00Z
Official High Surf Warning bulletin
Flood Watch
Guam; Rota
Flood Watch issued October 18 at 3:59PM ChST until October 19 at 4:00AM ChST by NWS Tiyan GU
Issued 05:59Z · ends 18:00Z
Official Flood Watch bulletin

Official forecast table

Official forecast positions and intensity

JTWC Warning 16 · advisory 06:00Z · forecast cycle 06:00Z. Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.

Published official forecast; no interpolated positions or winds
Valid time / lead	Position	Classification	Sustained wind
18:00Z +12 h from forecast cycle	13.8°N, 140.2°E	typhoon	120 kt · 138 mph
19 Oct 06:00Z +24 h from forecast cycle	14.7°N, 138.3°E	typhoon	125 kt · 144 mph
19 Oct 18:00Z +36 h from forecast cycle	15.7°N, 136.2°E	super typhoon	135 kt · 155 mph
20 Oct 06:00Z +48 h from forecast cycle	16.7°N, 133.9°E	super typhoon	140 kt · 161 mph
20 Oct 18:00Z +60 h from forecast cycle	17.8°N, 131.4°E	super typhoon	135 kt · 155 mph
21 Oct 06:00Z +72 h from forecast cycle	18.9°N, 129.2°E	super typhoon	130 kt · 150 mph
22 Oct 06:00Z +96 h from forecast cycle	20.4°N, 126.3°E	typhoon	115 kt · 132 mph
23 Oct 06:00Z +120 h from forecast cycle	22.2°N, 123.5°E	typhoon	95 kt · 109 mph

Advisory history and records

Retained advisory records

Return to latest advisory

Each entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.

Advisory history; retained records only
Official issuance	Revision kind	Record
JTWC Warning 16 · 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 610609f3 · Selected
JTWC Warning 15 · 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 8da30f44
JTWC Warning 14 · 17 Oct 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 066b411c
JTWC Warning 13 · 17 Oct 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 7b6b7d88
JTWC Warning 12 · 17 Oct 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot adcb8e93
JTWC Warning 11 · 17 Oct 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 0bf22ebc
JTWC Warning 10 · 16 Oct 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot eea89e7f
JTWC Warning 8 · 16 Oct 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot ff92eaa6
JTWC Warning 7 · 16 Oct 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 9d193cf4
JTWC Warning 6 · 15 Oct 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 4d09f045
JTWC Warning 5 · 15 Oct 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 7447d924
JTWC Warning 4 · 15 Oct 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 2d609133
JTWC Warning 3 · 15 Oct 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot d96ff9c8
JTWC Warning 2 · 14 Oct 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot d99cea2d
JTWC Warning 1 · 14 Oct 12:00Z	first	Snapshot 99aef0d4

Monitoring geography and current changes

Area: U.S. territories JTWC’s forecast track passes within 300 nm of, Warning 16: Guam and Northern Mariana Islands (NWS states: GU, MP)
JTWC issues no cone and no coastal segments, so the area is the territories its track reaches.
Hazards: Tornado, severe thunderstorm, flash flood, river flood, areal flood, coastal flood, tropical and other warnings, watches and advisories, and the forecasts for them
Window: In force now, with this warning’s forecast
Made by: JTWC’s own products, as this site’s pipeline published them, read again with each new warning. Watch another area

The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.

Map

This map draws the contiguous United States, and Guam and Northern Mariana Islands are beyond it. What is in force there is listed under “In force in this area”.

What changed, last 60 minutes

since 07:33Z, when this server began watching this area

Nothing has changed since 07:33Z.

The products’ own words and times, and what is no longer in force since the last read. Never written by AI.

All published products and source descriptions

Forecast track

The official forecast track, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 16 (06:00Z). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.

Intensity forecast

The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 16 (06:00Z). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.

Satellite

The storm’s page shows it on NASA GIBS (NOAA GOES, JMA Himawari)’s imagery, loaded by your browser. Himawari at 2° from the storm's meridian.

Open the storm’s page

Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.

Model guidance

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast for Super Typhoon Champi, JTWC Warning 16

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 16 (06:00Z). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.

Flash-flood risk, Day 1

Marginal
Slight

WPC’s excessive rainfall outlook, 01:00Z to 12:00Z, issued 00:35Z: a chance of flash flooding, in four categories. Data: NOAA/WPC.

River gauges in flood

No river, coastal or lake gauge in this area is in flood, observed or forecast.

NWS’s gauges at flood stage or above in the area, worst first, each with its forecast hydrograph on Rain & rivers. Data: NOAA/NWPS.

Rain expected and rain that fell

WPC’s rain forecast and MRMS’s radar estimate of the rain that fell, on the Briefing’s map for the area.

Open Rain & rivers

Data: NOAA/WPC, NOAA/NSSL MRMS.

SPC Day 1 outlook

General Thunderstorms Risk

SPC’s Day 1 categorical outlook, valid 12:00Z to 19 Oct 12:00Z, issued 05:51Z. SPC’s categories, as drawn. Data: NOAA/SPC.

Watches

No tornado or severe thunderstorm watch in force in this area.

SPC’s watches, by number, matched by the counties they list. Data: NOAA/SPC.

Mesoscale discussions

No mesoscale discussion reaches this area.

SPC’s mesoscale discussions whose outline reaches the area. Data: NOAA/SPC.

Storm ingredients

SPC’s hourly mesoanalysis, observed soundings and model guidance for the area, on the Analysis tab with its own clocks.

Open the Analysis tab

Drawn by the Analysis tab’s own renderer. Data: NOAA/SPC, NOAA/NCEP.

Radar

NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.

Open the radar

Live tiles; the radar keeps no last-good copy.

Sources

JTWC warning, as published checked 07:45Z
NWS warnings and SPC watches checked 07:46Z
NWS watches and advisories checked 07:46Z
SPC mesoscale discussions checked 07:46Z
SPC Day 1 outlook checked 07:45Z
WPC excessive rainfall checked 07:45Z
NWPS river gauges checked 07:45Z
Radar live tiles, no last-good copy

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.