Tropical Depression Twentynine

30 kt · 35 mph · 1003 hPa · N at 9 kt

Storm Mode · JTWC Warning 1 · 14 Oct 12:00Z

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JTWC forecast for Tropical Depression Twentynine, Warning 1; rendered by MaverickWX

Published advisory track · Warning 1

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MaverickWX map · Data: JTWC · not an official graphic

Change time or forecast product

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Replay coverage and interpretation

Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.

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Analysis and model context

Current cached context, independently dated. Regional reference: MP; a reference within a wider monitoring area does not replace the complete warning geography. This section remains separate from the historical replay cursor and official cyclone forecast. Use Forecast to pin a retained model package.

Soundings: what weather balloons measured

SPC’s skew-T diagram and hodograph of the sounding at Birmingham, AL (BMX), 12Z. Its levels are in the table below. — Observed Sounding at Birmingham, AL (BMX), for 12:00Z (2 h 41 min ago). SPC’s graphic; the values in its panels (CAPE, shear, the indices) are SPC’s computations from these levels. Data: NOAA/SPC.

A balloon launched about an hour before the time named, measuring as it rose and drifted with the wind: the atmosphere above one place, at one time. Model soundings, which are forecasts, are not shown here.

The levels this sounding was drawn from (58)

Birmingham, AL (BMX): the surface first, then up through the atmosphere. Temperature and dew point in °C, as measured.
Pressure	Height	Temperature	Dew point	Wind
1008 mb	178 m	7.2	2.2	calm
1000 mb	240 m	8.6	2.6	075° 15 kt
986 mb	357 m	10.2	1.2	—
968 mb	510 m	10.2	0.2	—
956 mb	610 m	10.0	0.0	105° 32 kt
942 mb	736 m	9.4	-0.6	—
925 mb	887 m	9.6	-1.4	105° 24 kt
893 mb	1180 m	13.4	-7.6	—
862 mb	1477 m	12.4	-6.6	—
850 mb	1594 m	12.2	-6.8	085° 8 kt
826 mb	1829 m	11.3	-12.2	080° 8 kt
810 mb	1996 m	12.0	-22.0	—
797 mb	2134 m	12.1	-25.7	065° 16 kt
782 mb	2290 m	13.2	-28.8	—
768 mb	2438 m	12.3	-30.4	040° 8 kt
747 mb	2673 m	11.0	-22.0	—
714 mb	3048 m	7.7	-19.5	010° 2 kt
700 mb	3209 m	6.2	-20.8	305° 2 kt
688 mb	3353 m	5.1	-23.4	305° 2 kt
662 mb	3658 m	3.4	-22.5	315° 7 kt
651 mb	3798 m	3.0	-20.0	—
638 mb	3962 m	2.2	-21.1	355° 5 kt
614 mb	4267 m	0.4	-28.6	335° 4 kt
591 mb	4572 m	-1.8	-27.1	350° 6 kt
577 mb	4763 m	-3.1	-26.1	—
547 mb	5182 m	-5.6	-29.7	285° 9 kt
526 mb	5486 m	-7.4	-32.3	315° 7 kt
506 mb	5791 m	-9.2	-34.9	295° 10 kt
500 mb	5880 m	-9.7	-35.7	310° 15 kt
486 mb	6096 m	-11.4	-32.7	310° 19 kt
467 mb	6401 m	-14.1	-29.8	320° 26 kt
449 mb	6706 m	-16.7	-27.0	315° 33 kt
438 mb	6887 m	-18.3	-25.3	—
408 mb	7414 m	-21.5	-41.5	—
400 mb	7560 m	-22.3	-42.3	310° 20 kt
380 mb	7925 m	-24.4	-43.3	310° 23 kt
365 mb	8230 m	-27.0	-43.2	325° 21 kt
335 mb	8839 m	-32.3	-43.1	315° 26 kt
322 mb	9119 m	-34.7	-46.7	—
312 mb	9339 m	-36.7	-46.7	—
300 mb	9610 m	-38.7	-48.7	305° 30 kt
288 mb	9888 m	-41.3	-50.3	—
277 mb	10151 m	-43.3	-51.3	—
263 mb	10500 m	-43.5	-55.5	—
250 mb	10840 m	-44.1	-59.1	320° 60 kt
234 mb	11278 m	-47.1	-60.4	315° 60 kt
223 mb	11582 m	-48.0	-62.1	320° 65 kt
213 mb	11887 m	-48.9	-64.0	320° 59 kt
203 mb	12213 m	-50.1	-66.1	—
200 mb	12310 m	-50.5	-66.5	320° 62 kt
185 mb	12802 m	-53.3	-69.3	320° 62 kt
168 mb	13411 m	-56.6	-71.5	315° 55 kt
157 mb	13855 m	-59.1	-73.1	—
150 mb	14140 m	-60.5	-73.5	315° 51 kt
132 mb	14935 m	-64.0	-76.4	325° 43 kt
119 mb	15545 m	-66.7	-77.9	315° 42 kt
108 mb	16154 m	-68.5	-79.5	320° 32 kt
100 mb	16600 m	-69.9	-79.9	325° 25 kt

Every station with a sounding (76)

SPC observed soundings checked 14:30Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

Storm details

JTWC Warning 1 · 14 Oct 12:00Z

Center position: 9.6°N, 161.2°E
Minimum pressure: 1003 hPa
Maximum sustained wind: 30 kt · 35 mph
Movement: N at 9 kt
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Forecast cycle 14 Oct 12:00Z. Center position belongs to the official state’s time, not imagery time.

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Advisory comparison

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Data coverage

JTWC has no NHC cone, NHC wind probabilities or NHC civil coastal warnings. Local national services remain the warning authorities.

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Lightning activity — GOES GLM

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Potential impacts and monitoring context

Current NWS monitoring states: GU, MP

Coastal alertsNot retained with this historical record Flooding rainOfficial rainfall context and coverage Storm surgeAvailability and coastal-only product limits Nearby severe warnings0 severe/flash-flood warnings in the named monitoring area · source current

Current warnings in the monitoring area

U.S. territories JTWC’s forecast track passes within 300 nm of, Warning 1: Guam and Northern Mariana Islands. Current geographical context; these alerts are not attributed to the cyclone and are not part of the historical advisory.

In force in this area

No warning, watch or advisory for these hazards is in force in this area.

NWS’s alerts checked 14:41Z: a successful check, so this is none in force, not “can’t tell”.

Official forecast table

Official forecast positions and intensity

JTWC Warning 1 · advisory 14 Oct 12:00Z · forecast cycle 14 Oct 12:00Z. Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.

Published official forecast; no interpolated positions or winds
Valid time / lead	Position	Classification	Sustained wind
15 Oct 00:00Z +12 h from forecast cycle	10.5°N, 160.2°E	tropical depression	30 kt · 35 mph
15 Oct 12:00Z +24 h from forecast cycle	11.2°N, 158.2°E	tropical storm	35 kt · 40 mph
16 Oct 00:00Z +36 h from forecast cycle	11.6°N, 155.5°E	tropical storm	40 kt · 46 mph
16 Oct 12:00Z +48 h from forecast cycle	12.1°N, 152.7°E	tropical storm	50 kt · 58 mph
17 Oct 00:00Z +60 h from forecast cycle	12.6°N, 149.9°E	typhoon	65 kt · 75 mph
17 Oct 12:00Z +72 h from forecast cycle	13.2°N, 147.2°E	typhoon	80 kt · 92 mph
18 Oct 12:00Z +96 h from forecast cycle	14.4°N, 142.1°E	typhoon	110 kt · 127 mph
12:00Z +120 h from forecast cycle	16.1°N, 137.4°E	typhoon	125 kt · 144 mph

Advisory history and records

Retained advisory records

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Each entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.

Advisory history; retained records only
Official issuance	Revision kind	Record
JTWC Warning 21 · 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 34544bc3
JTWC Warning 20 · 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 7c7a42d9
JTWC Warning 19 · 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot df4ad817
JTWC Warning 18 · 18 Oct 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot fee9f0ca
JTWC Warning 17 · 18 Oct 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot ded1ea58
JTWC Warning 16 · 18 Oct 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 610609f3
JTWC Warning 15 · 18 Oct 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 8da30f44
JTWC Warning 14 · 17 Oct 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 066b411c
JTWC Warning 13 · 17 Oct 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 7b6b7d88
JTWC Warning 12 · 17 Oct 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot adcb8e93
JTWC Warning 11 · 17 Oct 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 0bf22ebc
JTWC Warning 10 · 16 Oct 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot eea89e7f
JTWC Warning 8 · 16 Oct 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot ff92eaa6
JTWC Warning 7 · 16 Oct 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 9d193cf4
JTWC Warning 6 · 15 Oct 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 4d09f045
JTWC Warning 5 · 15 Oct 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 7447d924
JTWC Warning 4 · 15 Oct 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 2d609133
JTWC Warning 3 · 15 Oct 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot d96ff9c8
JTWC Warning 2 · 14 Oct 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot d99cea2d
JTWC Warning 1 · 14 Oct 12:00Z	first	Snapshot 99aef0d4 · Selected

Monitoring geography and current changes

Area: U.S. territories JTWC’s forecast track passes within 300 nm of, Warning 1: Guam and Northern Mariana Islands (NWS states: GU, MP)
JTWC issues no cone and no coastal segments, so the area is the territories its track reaches.
Hazards: Tornado, severe thunderstorm, flash flood, river flood, areal flood, coastal flood, tropical and other warnings, watches and advisories, and the forecasts for them
Window: In force now, with this warning’s forecast
Made by: JTWC’s own products, as this site’s pipeline published them, read again with each new warning. Watch another area

The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.

Map

This map draws the contiguous United States, and Guam and Northern Mariana Islands are beyond it. What is in force there is listed under “In force in this area”.

What changed, last 60 minutes

since 14:29Z, when this server began watching this area

Nothing has changed since 14:29Z.

The products’ own words and times, and what is no longer in force since the last read. Never written by AI.

All published products and source descriptions

Forecast track

The official forecast track, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 1 (12:00Z). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.

Intensity forecast

The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 1 (12:00Z). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.

Satellite

The storm’s page shows it on the satellite, loaded by your browser.

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Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.

Model guidance

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast for Tropical Depression Twentynine, JTWC Warning 1

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 1 (12:00Z). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.

SPC Day 1 outlook

General Thunderstorms Risk
Marginal Risk

SPC’s Day 1 categorical outlook, valid 13:00Z to 20 Oct 12:00Z, issued 12:00Z. SPC’s categories, as drawn. Data: NOAA/SPC.

Watches

No tornado or severe thunderstorm watch in force in this area.

SPC’s watches, by number, matched by the counties they list. Data: NOAA/SPC.

Mesoscale discussions

No mesoscale discussion reaches this area.

SPC’s mesoscale discussions whose outline reaches the area. Data: NOAA/SPC.

Storm ingredients

SPC’s hourly mesoanalysis, observed soundings and model guidance for the area, on the Analysis tab with its own clocks.

Open the Analysis tab

Drawn by the Analysis tab’s own renderer. Data: NOAA/SPC, NOAA/NCEP.

Flash-flood risk, Day 1

Marginal

WPC’s excessive rainfall outlook, 12:00Z to 20 Oct 12:00Z, issued 07:50Z: a chance of flash flooding, in four categories. Data: NOAA/WPC.

River gauges in flood

No river, coastal or lake gauge in this area is in flood, observed or forecast.

NWS’s gauges at flood stage or above in the area, worst first, each with its forecast hydrograph on Rain & rivers. Data: NOAA/NWPS.

Rain expected and rain that fell

WPC’s rain forecast and MRMS’s radar estimate of the rain that fell, on the Briefing’s map for the area.

Open Rain & rivers

Data: NOAA/WPC, NOAA/NSSL MRMS.

Radar

NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.

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Live tiles; the radar keeps no last-good copy.

Sources

JTWC warning, as published checked 14:41Z
NWS warnings and SPC watches checked 14:41Z
NWS watches and advisories checked 14:41Z
SPC mesoscale discussions checked 14:41Z
SPC Day 1 outlook checked 14:40Z
WPC excessive rainfall checked 14:40Z
NWPS river gauges checked 14:35Z
Radar live tiles, no last-good copy

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.