Tropical Depression Twentynine

30 kt · 35 mph · 1003 hPa · N at 9 kt

Storm Mode · JTWC Warning 1 · 14 Oct 12:00Z

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JTWC forecast for Tropical Depression Twentynine, Warning 1; rendered by MaverickWX

Published advisory track · Warning 1

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JTWC supplies no cone for this issuance; none is invented.

MaverickWX map · Data: JTWC · not an official graphic

Change time or forecast product

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Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.

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Analysis and model context

Current cached context, independently dated. Regional reference: GU; a reference within a wider monitoring area does not replace the complete warning geography. This section remains separate from the historical replay cursor and official cyclone forecast. Use Forecast to pin a retained model package.

Soundings: what weather balloons measured

SPC’s skew-T diagram and hodograph of the sounding at Vandenberg, CA (VBG), 00Z. Its levels are in the table below. — Observed Sounding at Vandenberg, CA (VBG), for 00:00Z (7 h 48 min ago). SPC’s graphic; the values in its panels (CAPE, shear, the indices) are SPC’s computations from these levels. Data: NOAA/SPC.

A balloon launched about an hour before the time named, measuring as it rose and drifted with the wind: the atmosphere above one place, at one time. Model soundings, which are forecasts, are not shown here.

The levels this sounding was drawn from (53)

Vandenberg, CA (VBG): the surface first, then up through the atmosphere. Temperature and dew point in °C, as measured.
Pressure	Height	Temperature	Dew point	Wind
1002 mb	121 m	31.0	8.0	190° 12 kt
1000 mb	113 m	29.0	8.0	215° 11 kt
987 mb	229 m	27.6	6.6	—
963 mb	446 m	27.0	4.0	210° 10 kt
925 mb	800 m	24.6	1.6	265° 3 kt
859 mb	1440 m	18.8	0.2	300° 10 kt
850 mb	1531 m	18.0	0.0	305° 10 kt
763 mb	2437 m	9.7	-1.0	355° 4 kt
733 mb	2773 m	6.6	-1.4	—
723 mb	2886 m	5.8	-1.9	005° 13 kt
708 mb	3057 m	4.5	-2.8	030° 15 kt
700 mb	3150 m	3.8	-3.2	025° 18 kt
645 mb	3811 m	-0.7	-10.7	—
634 mb	3949 m	1.6	-22.4	—
613 mb	4221 m	2.4	-26.6	—
564 mb	4880 m	-2.8	-27.8	025° 20 kt
516 mb	5582 m	-8.9	-28.8	050° 16 kt
503 mb	5783 m	-10.7	-29.0	030° 17 kt
500 mb	5830 m	-11.1	-29.1	025° 16 kt
460 mb	6462 m	-16.9	-29.5	005° 20 kt
446 mb	6694 m	-18.6	-29.7	020° 12 kt
436 mb	6863 m	-19.8	-29.9	005° 14 kt
426 mb	7035 m	-19.5	-23.8	—
412 mb	7282 m	-21.2	-28.0	055° 10 kt
400 mb	7500 m	-22.7	-31.7	045° 13 kt
390 mb	7685 m	-24.3	-34.3	—
376 mb	7949 m	-26.5	-35.0	065° 16 kt
366 mb	8143 m	-28.1	-38.1	—
356 mb	8342 m	-26.9	-53.9	—
336 mb	8756 m	-28.3	-59.1	005° 31 kt
325 mb	8994 m	-29.1	-62.1	—
313 mb	9260 m	-31.0	-61.6	015° 27 kt
300 mb	9560 m	-33.1	-61.1	355° 23 kt
278 mb	10086 m	-36.3	-62.6	330° 21 kt
250 mb	10820 m	-40.7	-64.7	295° 29 kt
230 mb	11380 m	-44.1	-68.0	290° 40 kt
216 mb	11801 m	-45.7	-71.7	—
200 mb	12310 m	-47.7	-75.7	270° 40 kt
172 mb	13280 m	-54.1	-77.9	270° 40 kt
151 mb	14117 m	-59.6	-79.8	245° 47 kt
150 mb	14160 m	-59.9	-79.9	245° 46 kt
118 mb	15625 m	-68.5	-84.5	—
107 mb	16208 m	-70.1	-86.1	270° 32 kt
100 mb	16610 m	-69.9	-86.9	255° 29 kt
88 mb	17374 m	-71.1	-86.4	230° 23 kt
75 mb	18288 m	-70.8	-87.6	250° 15 kt
65 mb	19202 m	-66.4	-88.2	260° 20 kt
53 mb	20422 m	-64.6	-89.0	150° 7 kt
41 mb	21946 m	-59.3	-87.2	225° 12 kt
31 mb	23774 m	-54.7	-84.4	260° 22 kt
20 mb	26518 m	-52.6	-83.6	260° 17 kt
10 mb	31090 m	-48.9	-81.9	265° 35 kt
8 mb	32651 m	-44.3	-80.3	—

Every station with a sounding (76)

SPC observed soundings checked 07:45Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

Storm details

JTWC Warning 1 · 14 Oct 12:00Z

Center position: 9.6°N, 161.2°E
Minimum pressure: 1003 hPa
Maximum sustained wind: 30 kt · 35 mph
Movement: N at 9 kt
Change from comparison: Comparison unavailable

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Forecast cycle 14 Oct 12:00Z. Center position belongs to the official state’s time, not imagery time.

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Advisory comparison

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Data coverage

JTWC has no NHC cone, NHC wind probabilities or NHC civil coastal warnings. Local national services remain the warning authorities.

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Lightning activity — GOES GLM

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Cached lightning source details and text readings

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Potential impacts and monitoring context

Current NWS monitoring states: GU, MP

Coastal alertsNot retained with this historical record Flooding rainOfficial rainfall context and coverage Storm surgeAvailability and coastal-only product limits Nearby severe warnings0 severe/flash-flood warnings in the named monitoring area · source current

Current warnings in the monitoring area

U.S. territories JTWC’s forecast track passes within 300 nm of, Warning 1: Guam and Northern Mariana Islands. Current geographical context; these alerts are not attributed to the cyclone and are not part of the historical advisory.

In force in this area 4

Typhoon Warning1until 16:45Z
Coastal Flood Warning1until 18:00Z
High Surf Warning1until 18:00Z
Flood Watch1until 18:00Z

Every alert in this area, most urgent first

Typhoon WarningGuam; Rota; Guam Coastal Waters; Rota Coastal Watersuntil 16:45Z · NWS Tiyan GU
Coastal Flood WarningGuam; Rotauntil 18:00Z · NWS Tiyan GU
High Surf WarningGuam; Rotauntil 18:00Z · NWS Tiyan GU
Flood WatchGuam; Rotauntil 18:00Z · NWS Tiyan GU

Most urgent first, by the Briefing’s ranking. Checked 07:48Z.

Typhoon Warning
Guam; Rota; Guam Coastal Waters; Rota Coastal Waters
Typhoon Warning issued October 18 at 3:01PM ChST by NWS Tiyan GU
Issued 17 Oct 12:39Z · ends 16:45Z
Official Typhoon Warning bulletin
Coastal Flood Warning
Guam; Rota
Coastal Flood Warning issued October 18 at 12:00PM ChST until October 19 at 4:00AM ChST by NWS Tiyan GU
Issued 17 Oct 21:55Z · ends 18:00Z
Official Coastal Flood Warning bulletin
High Surf Warning
Guam; Rota
High Surf Warning issued October 18 at 12:00PM ChST until October 19 at 4:00AM ChST by NWS Tiyan GU
Issued 17 Oct 21:55Z · ends 18:00Z
Official High Surf Warning bulletin
Flood Watch
Guam; Rota
Flood Watch issued October 18 at 3:59PM ChST until October 19 at 4:00AM ChST by NWS Tiyan GU
Issued 05:59Z · ends 18:00Z
Official Flood Watch bulletin

Official forecast table

Official forecast positions and intensity

JTWC Warning 1 · advisory 14 Oct 12:00Z · forecast cycle 14 Oct 12:00Z. Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.

Published official forecast; no interpolated positions or winds
Valid time / lead	Position	Classification	Sustained wind
15 Oct 00:00Z +12 h from forecast cycle	10.5°N, 160.2°E	tropical depression	30 kt · 35 mph
15 Oct 12:00Z +24 h from forecast cycle	11.2°N, 158.2°E	tropical storm	35 kt · 40 mph
16 Oct 00:00Z +36 h from forecast cycle	11.6°N, 155.5°E	tropical storm	40 kt · 46 mph
16 Oct 12:00Z +48 h from forecast cycle	12.1°N, 152.7°E	tropical storm	50 kt · 58 mph
17 Oct 00:00Z +60 h from forecast cycle	12.6°N, 149.9°E	typhoon	65 kt · 75 mph
17 Oct 12:00Z +72 h from forecast cycle	13.2°N, 147.2°E	typhoon	80 kt · 92 mph
12:00Z +96 h from forecast cycle	14.4°N, 142.1°E	typhoon	110 kt · 127 mph
19 Oct 12:00Z +120 h from forecast cycle	16.1°N, 137.4°E	typhoon	125 kt · 144 mph

Advisory history and records

Retained advisory records

Return to latest advisory

Each entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.

Advisory history; retained records only
Official issuance	Revision kind	Record
JTWC Warning 16 · 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 610609f3
JTWC Warning 15 · 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 8da30f44
JTWC Warning 14 · 17 Oct 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 066b411c
JTWC Warning 13 · 17 Oct 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 7b6b7d88
JTWC Warning 12 · 17 Oct 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot adcb8e93
JTWC Warning 11 · 17 Oct 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 0bf22ebc
JTWC Warning 10 · 16 Oct 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot eea89e7f
JTWC Warning 8 · 16 Oct 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot ff92eaa6
JTWC Warning 7 · 16 Oct 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 9d193cf4
JTWC Warning 6 · 15 Oct 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 4d09f045
JTWC Warning 5 · 15 Oct 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 7447d924
JTWC Warning 4 · 15 Oct 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 2d609133
JTWC Warning 3 · 15 Oct 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot d96ff9c8
JTWC Warning 2 · 14 Oct 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot d99cea2d
JTWC Warning 1 · 14 Oct 12:00Z	first	Snapshot 99aef0d4 · Selected

Monitoring geography and current changes

Area: U.S. territories JTWC’s forecast track passes within 300 nm of, Warning 1: Guam and Northern Mariana Islands (NWS states: GU, MP)
JTWC issues no cone and no coastal segments, so the area is the territories its track reaches.
Hazards: Tornado, severe thunderstorm, flash flood, river flood, areal flood, coastal flood, tropical and other warnings, watches and advisories, and the forecasts for them
Window: In force now, with this warning’s forecast
Made by: JTWC’s own products, as this site’s pipeline published them, read again with each new warning. Watch another area

The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.

Map

This map draws the contiguous United States, and Guam and Northern Mariana Islands are beyond it. What is in force there is listed under “In force in this area”.

What changed, last 60 minutes

since 07:33Z, when this server began watching this area

Nothing has changed since 07:33Z.

The products’ own words and times, and what is no longer in force since the last read. Never written by AI.

All published products and source descriptions

Forecast track

The official forecast track, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 1 (12:00Z). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.

Intensity forecast

The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 1 (12:00Z). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.

Satellite

The storm’s page shows it on the satellite, loaded by your browser.

Open the storm’s page

Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.

Model guidance

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast for Tropical Depression Twentynine, JTWC Warning 1

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 1 (12:00Z). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.

Flash-flood risk, Day 1

Marginal
Slight

WPC’s excessive rainfall outlook, 01:00Z to 12:00Z, issued 00:35Z: a chance of flash flooding, in four categories. Data: NOAA/WPC.

River gauges in flood

No river, coastal or lake gauge in this area is in flood, observed or forecast.

NWS’s gauges at flood stage or above in the area, worst first, each with its forecast hydrograph on Rain & rivers. Data: NOAA/NWPS.

Rain expected and rain that fell

WPC’s rain forecast and MRMS’s radar estimate of the rain that fell, on the Briefing’s map for the area.

Open Rain & rivers

Data: NOAA/WPC, NOAA/NSSL MRMS.

SPC Day 1 outlook

General Thunderstorms Risk

SPC’s Day 1 categorical outlook, valid 12:00Z to 19 Oct 12:00Z, issued 05:51Z. SPC’s categories, as drawn. Data: NOAA/SPC.

Watches

No tornado or severe thunderstorm watch in force in this area.

SPC’s watches, by number, matched by the counties they list. Data: NOAA/SPC.

Mesoscale discussions

No mesoscale discussion reaches this area.

SPC’s mesoscale discussions whose outline reaches the area. Data: NOAA/SPC.

Storm ingredients

SPC’s hourly mesoanalysis, observed soundings and model guidance for the area, on the Analysis tab with its own clocks.

Open the Analysis tab

Drawn by the Analysis tab’s own renderer. Data: NOAA/SPC, NOAA/NCEP.

Radar

NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.

Open the radar

Live tiles; the radar keeps no last-good copy.

Sources

JTWC warning, as published checked 07:48Z
NWS warnings and SPC watches checked 07:48Z
NWS watches and advisories checked 07:48Z
SPC mesoscale discussions checked 07:48Z
SPC Day 1 outlook checked 07:45Z
WPC excessive rainfall checked 07:45Z
NWPS river gauges checked 07:45Z
Radar live tiles, no last-good copy

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.