Forecast track

The official forecast track, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 5 (). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.
Current advisory context · 35 kt · 40 mph · 1001 hPa · W at 10 kt
Storm Mode · JTWC Warning 5 ·
Historical advisory selected · current imagery and impacts are not attached
Replay uses retained source bytes. Recording begins with activation; missing history is not clear weather.
Live sources keep independent clocks.
Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.
Current GLM density, velocity and specialist layers are hidden during replay. Snow uses retained footprint metadata with unverified pixel time. Forecast uses one pinned issuance/run and exact valid time.
No observed replay frame displayed.
Open the complete replay reader (works without scripting or WebGL)
Observed imagery loads separately from the advisory. The base map is not observed satellite imagery.
JTWC supplies no cone for this issuance; none is invented.
Use Forecast above to pin an official issuance and valid point. The forecast table and advisory history remain available below.
Water levels are relative to the named datum, not flood depth above ground. Observations keep their own report times.
Observed water level is relative to the named vertical datum, not flood depth above ground. Observed minus predicted tide is a matched-time residual, not a universal storm-surge or inundation forecast. Buoy wind is not a cyclone maximum; significant wave height is not coastal flood depth. Missing readings are not zero.
Only operator-configured public stations are collected. Coastal context includes stations inside the named monitoring area or within 100 nautical miles of a vertex of its published outline, so offshore buoys can be included; this is a proximity rule, not an impact footprint. Cyclone-only context is within 600 nautical miles of the selected advisory center. Shown center distances are not impact radii. Station-file history without a reported position is not assigned a historical location.
Source current · checked 2026-10-18 04:38:03.992Z. 0 configured stations in this view.
No configured station has been collected in this scope. This does not establish safe coastal conditions.
Source current · checked 2026-10-18 04:36:03.244Z. 0 configured stations in this view.
No configured station has been collected in this scope. This does not establish safe coastal conditions.
Forecast cycle . Center position belongs to the official state’s time, not imagery time.
Saved places are read from this device after scripting starts.
Search stays in this browser. A town point is not an address; no address-level surge is calculated.
Solid: Warning 5 ·
Dashed: Warning 4 ·
Solid: JTWC Warning 5 ·
Dashed: JTWC Warning 4 · . Comparison uses each record’s own geometry. A revision is not a landfall or impact prediction.
| Field | Selected issuance | Comparison issuance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maximum sustained wind | 35 kt · 40 mph | 30 kt · 35 mph | +5 kt |
| Minimum pressure | 1001 hPa | 1002 hPa | -1 hPa |
| Center position | 11.0°N, 157.4°E | 10.9°N, 158.4°E | Different observation times; not a forecast shift |
Forecast comparison unavailable: these records have no matching forecast valid times. No interpolation or six-hour step is assumed.
JTWC has no NHC cone, NHC wind probabilities or NHC civil coastal warnings. Local national services remain the warning authorities.
Geographic context: Natural Earth boundaries and representative place labels. Radar coverage is limited offshore. Satellite pixels keep their source palette and actual observation time. Missing imagery is not clear weather.
Total lightning, including in-cloud activity. Not ground-strike locations or a safe-to-go-outside signal.
Cached lightning observations have not loaded. An empty map is not zero lightning.
Interactive layer controls load on this device. Published products remain available below.
U.S. territories JTWC’s forecast track passes within 300 nm of, Warning 5: Guam and Northern Mariana Islands. Current geographical context; these alerts are not attributed to the cyclone and are not part of the historical advisory.
Most urgent first, by the Briefing’s ranking. Checked .
Guam Coastal Waters; Rota Coastal Waters; Guam; Rota
Typhoon Warning issued October 18 at 12:31PM ChST by NWS Tiyan GU
Issued · ends
Official Typhoon Warning bulletinGuam; Rota
Coastal Flood Warning issued October 18 at 12:00PM ChST until October 19 at 4:00AM ChST by NWS Tiyan GU
Issued · ends
Official Coastal Flood Warning bulletinGuam; Rota
High Surf Warning issued October 18 at 12:00PM ChST until October 19 at 4:00AM ChST by NWS Tiyan GU
Issued · ends
Official High Surf Warning bulletinGuam; Rota
Flood Watch issued October 18 at 4:12AM ChST until October 18 at 6:00PM ChST by NWS Tiyan GU
Issued · ends
Official Flood Watch bulletinJTWC Warning 5 · advisory · forecast cycle . Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.
| Valid time / lead | Position | Classification | Sustained wind |
|---|---|---|---|
+12 h from forecast cycle | 11.5°N, 154.9°E | tropical storm | 40 kt · 46 mph |
+24 h from forecast cycle | 11.9°N, 152.1°E | tropical storm | 50 kt · 58 mph |
+36 h from forecast cycle | 12.4°N, 149.5°E | tropical storm | 60 kt · 69 mph |
+48 h from forecast cycle | 12.9°N, 147.0°E | typhoon | 75 kt · 86 mph |
+60 h from forecast cycle | 13.5°N, 144.5°E | typhoon | 90 kt · 104 mph |
+72 h from forecast cycle | 14.0°N, 142.3°E | typhoon | 105 kt · 121 mph |
+96 h from forecast cycle | 15.7°N, 137.7°E | typhoon | 125 kt · 144 mph |
+120 h from forecast cycle | 17.7°N, 133.1°E | typhoon | 125 kt · 144 mph |
Each entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.
| Official issuance | Revision kind | Record |
|---|---|---|
| JTWC Warning 15 · | advisory | Snapshot 8da30f44 |
| JTWC Warning 14 · | advisory | Snapshot 066b411c |
| JTWC Warning 13 · | advisory | Snapshot 7b6b7d88 |
| JTWC Warning 12 · | advisory | Snapshot adcb8e93 |
| JTWC Warning 11 · | advisory | Snapshot 0bf22ebc |
| JTWC Warning 10 · | advisory | Snapshot eea89e7f |
| JTWC Warning 8 · | advisory | Snapshot ff92eaa6 |
| JTWC Warning 7 · | advisory | Snapshot 9d193cf4 |
| JTWC Warning 6 · | advisory | Snapshot 4d09f045 |
| JTWC Warning 5 · | advisory | Snapshot 7447d924 · Selected |
| JTWC Warning 4 · | advisory | Snapshot 2d609133 |
| JTWC Warning 3 · | advisory | Snapshot d96ff9c8 |
| JTWC Warning 2 · | advisory | Snapshot d99cea2d |
| JTWC Warning 1 · | first | Snapshot 99aef0d4 |
The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.
This map draws the contiguous United States, and Guam and Northern Mariana Islands are beyond it. What is in force there is listed under “In force in this area”.
Nothing has changed since 04:23Z.
The products’ own words and times, and what is no longer in force since the last read. Never written by AI.

The official forecast track, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 5 (). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.

The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 5 (). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.
The storm’s page shows it on the satellite, loaded by your browser.
Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 5 (). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.
WPC’s excessive rainfall outlook, to , issued : a chance of flash flooding, in four categories. Data: NOAA/WPC.
No river, coastal or lake gauge in this area is in flood, observed or forecast.
NWS’s gauges at flood stage or above in the area, worst first, each with its forecast hydrograph on Rain & rivers. Data: NOAA/NWPS.
WPC’s rain forecast and MRMS’s radar estimate of the rain that fell, on the Briefing’s map for the area.
Data: NOAA/WPC, NOAA/NSSL MRMS.
SPC’s Day 1 categorical outlook, valid to , issued . SPC’s categories, as drawn. Data: NOAA/SPC.
No tornado or severe thunderstorm watch in force in this area.
SPC’s watches, by number, matched by the counties they list. Data: NOAA/SPC.
No mesoscale discussion reaches this area.
SPC’s mesoscale discussions whose outline reaches the area. Data: NOAA/SPC.
SPC’s hourly mesoanalysis, observed soundings and model guidance for the area, on the Analysis tab with its own clocks.
Drawn by the Analysis tab’s own renderer. Data: NOAA/SPC, NOAA/NCEP.
NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.
Live tiles; the radar keeps no last-good copy.
JTWC warning, as published checked
NWS warnings and SPC watches checked
NWS watches and advisories checked
SPC mesoscale discussions checked
SPC Day 1 outlook checked
WPC excessive rainfall checked
NWPS river gauges checked
Radar live tiles, no last-good copy
Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.