Tropical Depression Surigae

30 kt · 35 mph · NE at 7 kt

Storm Mode · JTWC Warning 30 · 30 Sep 12:00Z

Final advisory · monitoring can continue

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JTWC forecast for Tropical Depression Surigae, Warning 30; rendered by MaverickWX

Published advisory track · Warning 30

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MaverickWX map · Data: JTWC · not an official graphic

Change time or forecast product

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Replay coverage and interpretation

Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.

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Analysis and model context

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Soundings: what weather balloons measured

SPC’s skew-T diagram and hodograph of the sounding at Nashville, TN (BNA), 12Z. Its levels are in the table below. — Observed Sounding at Nashville, TN (BNA), for 12:00Z (8 h 57 min ago). SPC’s graphic; the values in its panels (CAPE, shear, the indices) are SPC’s computations from these levels. Data: NOAA/SPC.

A balloon launched about an hour before the time named, measuring as it rose and drifted with the wind: the atmosphere above one place, at one time. Model soundings, which are forecasts, are not shown here.

The levels this sounding was drawn from (60)

Nashville, TN (BNA): the surface first, then up through the atmosphere. Temperature and dew point in °C, as measured.
Pressure	Height	Temperature	Dew point	Wind
1010 mb	210 m	6.2	4.0	calm
1000 mb	263 m	8.0	4.1	075° 13 kt
978 mb	447 m	9.0	3.0	—
959 mb	610 m	8.1	1.4	110° 19 kt
943 mb	747 m	8.0	1.0	—
926 mb	897 m	7.4	-1.6	—
925 mb	906 m	7.4	-1.6	110° 14 kt
902 mb	1114 m	8.4	-6.6	—
891 mb	1219 m	8.5	-10.6	110° 11 kt
878 mb	1337 m	9.6	-17.4	—
863 mb	1480 m	9.0	-14.0	—
850 mb	1606 m	9.8	-12.2	090° 6 kt
827 mb	1829 m	10.4	-9.4	165° 3 kt
798 mb	2134 m	9.4	-7.1	100° 10 kt
787 mb	2245 m	9.0	-7.0	—
748 mb	2664 m	8.2	-11.8	—
717 mb	3012 m	5.4	-11.6	—
700 mb	3207 m	4.4	-11.6	035° 4 kt
688 mb	3353 m	3.1	-12.1	050° 8 kt
667 mb	3598 m	1.8	-13.2	—
637 mb	3962 m	-0.3	-17.0	000° 10 kt
626 mb	4108 m	-0.9	-19.9	—
616 mb	4237 m	-0.5	-21.5	—
605 mb	4381 m	-0.7	-26.7	—
591 mb	4572 m	-1.0	-29.2	065° 7 kt
568 mb	4877 m	-2.8	-31.6	055° 5 kt
547 mb	5182 m	-5.2	-33.3	045° 4 kt
527 mb	5473 m	-7.7	-34.7	—
512 mb	5697 m	-9.1	-36.1	—
500 mb	5880 m	-10.7	-35.7	075° 5 kt
486 mb	6096 m	-12.4	-37.2	100° 4 kt
467 mb	6401 m	-14.9	-39.3	075° 2 kt
448 mb	6706 m	-17.4	-41.5	095° 4 kt
430 mb	7010 m	-19.8	-41.4	010° 2 kt
413 mb	7315 m	-22.1	-40.5	335° 6 kt
400 mb	7550 m	-24.1	-41.1	315° 6 kt
386 mb	7808 m	-26.1	-42.1	—
364 mb	8230 m	-29.2	-43.9	000° 4 kt
352 mb	8467 m	-30.9	-44.9	—
334 mb	8839 m	-33.7	-46.4	345° 10 kt
320 mb	9144 m	-35.9	-47.6	340° 12 kt
306 mb	9449 m	-37.9	-49.8	335° 22 kt
300 mb	9580 m	-38.5	-51.5	315° 25 kt
283 mb	9978 m	-41.5	-55.5	—
269 mb	10321 m	-44.1	-58.1	—
250 mb	10810 m	-46.1	-60.1	315° 32 kt
233 mb	11278 m	-49.2	-62.3	325° 36 kt
222 mb	11582 m	-50.5	-62.7	320° 38 kt
212 mb	11887 m	-50.6	-63.6	315° 41 kt
200 mb	12270 m	-52.1	-64.1	315° 46 kt
186 mb	12736 m	-53.9	-66.9	—
175 mb	13106 m	-55.6	-68.1	315° 32 kt
162 mb	13610 m	-57.9	-69.9	—
152 mb	14021 m	-60.3	-71.4	305° 33 kt
150 mb	14090 m	-60.7	-71.7	295° 36 kt
139 mb	14562 m	-62.7	-73.7	—
129 mb	15021 m	-64.3	-75.3	—
118 mb	15545 m	-66.0	-76.0	305° 33 kt
107 mb	16154 m	-68.0	-77.6	310° 26 kt
100 mb	16560 m	-69.1	-78.1	310° 21 kt

Every station with a sounding (76)

SPC observed soundings checked 20:45Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

Storm details

JTWC Warning 30 · 30 Sep 12:00Z

Center position: 31.8°N, 138.8°E
Minimum pressure: Not reported
Maximum sustained wind: 30 kt · 35 mph
Movement: NE at 7 kt
Change from comparison: Wind -5 kt · pressure Not comparable
Compared with Warning 29 · 30 Sep 06:00Z

Read official warning (JTWC) ↗

Forecast cycle 30 Sep 12:00Z. Center position belongs to the official state’s time, not imagery time. The warning center issued its final advisory; continuing flood/rain monitoring does not imply a new cyclone forecast.

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Advisory comparison

Show previous forecast as a dashed line

Solid: Warning 30 · 30 Sep 12:00Z
Dashed: Warning 29 · 30 Sep 06:00Z

Compare positions and intensity

Solid: JTWC Warning 30 · 30 Sep 12:00Z
Dashed: JTWC Warning 29 · 30 Sep 06:00Z. Comparison uses each record’s own geometry. A revision is not a landfall or impact prediction.

Current-state revision (two separate official issuances)
Field	Selected issuance	Comparison issuance	Change
Maximum sustained wind	30 kt · 35 mph	35 kt · 40 mph	-5 kt
Minimum pressure	Not reported	Not reported	Not comparable
Center position	31.8°N, 138.8°E	31.2°N, 138.3°E	Different observation times; not a forecast shift

Forecast comparison unavailable: these records have no matching forecast valid times. No interpolation or six-hour step is assumed.

Data coverage

JTWC has no NHC cone, NHC wind probabilities or NHC civil coastal warnings. Local national services remain the warning authorities.

Geographic context: Natural Earth boundaries and representative place labels. Radar coverage is limited offshore. Satellite pixels keep their source palette and actual observation time. Missing imagery is not clear weather.

No supported U.S. NWS monitoring area for this advisory. This does not mean no warnings worldwide.

Lightning activity — GOES GLM

Total lightning, including in-cloud activity. Not ground-strike locations or a safe-to-go-outside signal.

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Potential impacts and monitoring context

No supported U.S. monitoring area

Coastal alertsLocal national warning authorities apply Flooding rainOfficial rainfall context and coverage Storm surgeAvailability and coastal-only product limits Nearby severe warningsNWS coverage unavailable here; not a global all-clear

Current warnings in the monitoring area

None: JTWC’s forecast track passes within 300 nm of no U.S. territory with NWS zones, Warning 30. Current geographical context; these alerts are not attributed to the cyclone.

No U.S. area

No U.S. territory is in this storm’s area: JTWC’s track passes within 300 nm of none. Its own panels are shown, and no NWS alert is listed.

Official forecast table

Official forecast positions and intensity

JTWC Warning 30 · advisory 30 Sep 12:00Z · forecast cycle 30 Sep 12:00Z. Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.

Published official forecast; no interpolated positions or winds
Valid time / lead	Position	Classification	Sustained wind
1 Oct 00:00Z +12 h from forecast cycle	33.7°N, 141.1°E	tropical depression	30 kt · 35 mph
1 Oct 12:00Z +24 h from forecast cycle	36.5°N, 145.2°E	tropical depression	30 kt · 35 mph

Advisory history and records

Retained advisory records

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Each entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.

Advisory history; retained records only
Official issuance	Revision kind	Record
JTWC Warning 30 · 30 Sep 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot fe417aba · Selected
JTWC Warning 29 · 30 Sep 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot c42914ce
JTWC Warning 28 · 30 Sep 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 9ee9be54

Monitoring geography and current changes

Area: None: JTWC’s forecast track passes within 300 nm of no U.S. territory with NWS zones, Warning 30
JTWC issues no cone and no coastal segments, so the area is the territories its track reaches.
Hazards: —
Window: In force now, with this warning’s forecast
Made by: JTWC’s own products, as this site’s pipeline published them, read again with each new warning. Watch another area

The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.

All published products and source descriptions

Forecast track

The official forecast track, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 30 (12:00Z). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.

Intensity forecast

The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 30 (12:00Z). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.

Satellite

The storm’s page shows it on NASA GIBS (NOAA GOES, JMA Himawari)’s imagery, loaded by your browser. Himawari at 2° from the storm's meridian.

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Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.

Model guidance

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast for Tropical Depression Surigae, JTWC Warning 30

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 30 (12:00Z). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.

Radar

NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.

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Live tiles; the radar keeps no last-good copy.

Sources

JTWC warning, as published checked 20:56Z
Radar live tiles, no last-good copy

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.