Tropical Depression Surigae

30 kt · 35 mph · NE at 7 kt

Storm Mode · JTWC Warning 30 · 30 Sep 12:00Z

Final advisory · monitoring can continue

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JTWC forecast for Tropical Depression Surigae, Warning 30; rendered by MaverickWX

Published advisory track · Warning 30

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MaverickWX map · Data: JTWC · not an official graphic

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Replay coverage and interpretation

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Analysis and model context

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Soundings: what weather balloons measured

SPC’s skew-T diagram and hodograph of the sounding at Zacatecas, Mexico (76526), 12Z. Its levels are in the table below. — Observed Sounding at Zacatecas, Mexico (76526), for 12:00Z (8 h 59 min ago). SPC’s graphic; the values in its panels (CAPE, shear, the indices) are SPC’s computations from these levels. Data: NOAA/SPC.

A balloon launched about an hour before the time named, measuring as it rose and drifted with the wind: the atmosphere above one place, at one time. Model soundings, which are forecasts, are not shown here.

The levels this sounding was drawn from (32)

Zacatecas, Mexico (76526): the surface first, then up through the atmosphere. Temperature and dew point in °C, as measured.
Pressure	Height	Temperature	Dew point	Wind
783 mb	2265 m	9.8	7.0	calm
770 mb	2403 m	8.2	6.7	080° 8 kt
731 mb	2829 m	6.2	6.2	—
700 mb	3184 m	6.8	6.6	140° 27 kt
690 mb	3303 m	6.5	6.2	145° 27 kt
676 mb	3471 m	5.8	5.5	—
660 mb	3669 m	7.2	5.2	—
642 mb	3897 m	6.9	4.2	190° 14 kt
596 mb	4501 m	2.9	1.0	140° 12 kt
553 mb	5109 m	-1.3	-2.3	135° 18 kt
539 mb	5314 m	-1.5	-4.1	—
500 mb	5910 m	-4.5	-10.5	185° 18 kt
466 mb	6458 m	-9.5	-13.4	—
455 mb	6641 m	-10.5	-17.5	—
440 mb	6897 m	-12.1	-17.6	180° 23 kt
427 mb	7126 m	-12.1	-16.9	—
406 mb	7507 m	-15.0	-17.2	205° 18 kt
400 mb	7620 m	-15.9	-17.3	210° 16 kt
373 mb	8143 m	-19.7	-20.0	—
346 mb	8697 m	-22.2	-24.6	200° 14 kt
300 mb	9730 m	-29.3	-32.4	195° 16 kt
281 mb	10193 m	-33.0	-36.3	200° 18 kt
269 mb	10502 m	-35.5	-38.9	—
250 mb	11010 m	-39.7	-44.2	225° 27 kt
238 mb	11345 m	-42.5	-47.4	—
226 mb	11693 m	-44.5	-55.5	—
200 mb	12500 m	-51.1	-60.1	235° 35 kt
188 mb	12889 m	-53.9	-62.9	250° 29 kt
150 mb	14310 m	-64.1	-73.1	280° 31 kt
121 mb	15585 m	-74.3	-80.8	330° 18 kt
109 mb	16200 m	-79.5	-84.3	305° 10 kt
100 mb	16690 m	-79.5	-84.5	140° 4 kt

Every station with a sounding (76)

SPC observed soundings checked 20:45Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

Storm details

JTWC Warning 30 · 30 Sep 12:00Z

Center position: 31.8°N, 138.8°E
Minimum pressure: Not reported
Maximum sustained wind: 30 kt · 35 mph
Movement: NE at 7 kt
Change from comparison: Wind -5 kt · pressure Not comparable
Compared with Warning 29 · 30 Sep 06:00Z

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Forecast cycle 30 Sep 12:00Z. Center position belongs to the official state’s time, not imagery time. The warning center issued its final advisory; continuing flood/rain monitoring does not imply a new cyclone forecast.

Watched places

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Advisory comparison

Show previous forecast as a dashed line

Solid: Warning 30 · 30 Sep 12:00Z
Dashed: Warning 29 · 30 Sep 06:00Z

Compare positions and intensity

Solid: JTWC Warning 30 · 30 Sep 12:00Z
Dashed: JTWC Warning 29 · 30 Sep 06:00Z. Comparison uses each record’s own geometry. A revision is not a landfall or impact prediction.

Current-state revision (two separate official issuances)
Field	Selected issuance	Comparison issuance	Change
Maximum sustained wind	30 kt · 35 mph	35 kt · 40 mph	-5 kt
Minimum pressure	Not reported	Not reported	Not comparable
Center position	31.8°N, 138.8°E	31.2°N, 138.3°E	Different observation times; not a forecast shift

Forecast comparison unavailable: these records have no matching forecast valid times. No interpolation or six-hour step is assumed.

Data coverage

JTWC has no NHC cone, NHC wind probabilities or NHC civil coastal warnings. Local national services remain the warning authorities.

Geographic context: Natural Earth boundaries and representative place labels. Radar coverage is limited offshore. Satellite pixels keep their source palette and actual observation time. Missing imagery is not clear weather.

No supported U.S. NWS monitoring area for this advisory. This does not mean no warnings worldwide.

Lightning activity — GOES GLM

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Potential impacts and monitoring context

No supported U.S. monitoring area

Coastal alertsLocal national warning authorities apply Flooding rainOfficial rainfall context and coverage Storm surgeAvailability and coastal-only product limits Nearby severe warningsNWS coverage unavailable here; not a global all-clear

Current warnings in the monitoring area

None: JTWC’s forecast track passes within 300 nm of no U.S. territory with NWS zones, Warning 30. Current geographical context; these alerts are not attributed to the cyclone.

No U.S. area

No U.S. territory is in this storm’s area: JTWC’s track passes within 300 nm of none. Its own panels are shown, and no NWS alert is listed.

Official forecast table

Official forecast positions and intensity

JTWC Warning 30 · advisory 30 Sep 12:00Z · forecast cycle 30 Sep 12:00Z. Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.

Published official forecast; no interpolated positions or winds
Valid time / lead	Position	Classification	Sustained wind
1 Oct 00:00Z +12 h from forecast cycle	33.7°N, 141.1°E	tropical depression	30 kt · 35 mph
1 Oct 12:00Z +24 h from forecast cycle	36.5°N, 145.2°E	tropical depression	30 kt · 35 mph

Advisory history and records

Retained advisory records

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Each entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.

Advisory history; retained records only
Official issuance	Revision kind	Record
JTWC Warning 30 · 30 Sep 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot fe417aba · Selected
JTWC Warning 29 · 30 Sep 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot c42914ce
JTWC Warning 28 · 30 Sep 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 9ee9be54

Monitoring geography and current changes

Area: None: JTWC’s forecast track passes within 300 nm of no U.S. territory with NWS zones, Warning 30
JTWC issues no cone and no coastal segments, so the area is the territories its track reaches.
Hazards: —
Window: In force now, with this warning’s forecast
Made by: JTWC’s own products, as this site’s pipeline published them, read again with each new warning. Watch another area

The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.

All published products and source descriptions

Forecast track

The official forecast track, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 30 (12:00Z). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.

Intensity forecast

The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 30 (12:00Z). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.

Satellite

The storm’s page shows it on NASA GIBS (NOAA GOES, JMA Himawari)’s imagery, loaded by your browser. Himawari at 2° from the storm's meridian.

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Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.

Model guidance

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast for Tropical Depression Surigae, JTWC Warning 30

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from JTWC’s Warning 30 (12:00Z). Not an official JTWC product. Data: JTWC. JTWC’s own.

Radar

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Sources

JTWC warning, as published checked 20:58Z
Radar live tiles, no last-good copy

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.