Forecast track
The official forecast track, drawn by this site from NHC’s Advisory 57 (). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel
Current advisory context · 45 kt · 52 mph · 990 hPa · N at 22 kt
Storm Mode · NHC Advisory 57 ·
Historical advisory selected · current imagery and impacts are not attached
Replay uses retained source bytes. Recording begins with activation; missing history is not clear weather.
Live sources keep independent clocks.
Replay coverage and interpretation
Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.
Current GLM density, velocity and specialist layers are hidden during replay. Snow uses retained footprint metadata with unverified pixel time. Forecast uses one pinned issuance/run and exact valid time.
No observed replay frame displayed.
Open the complete replay reader (works without scripting or WebGL)Published advisory track · Advisory 57
Observed imagery loads separately from the advisory. The base map is not observed satellite imagery.
The cone describes center uncertainty; impacts can extend outside it.
MaverickWX map · Data: NOAA/NHC · not an official graphic
Use Forecast above to pin an official issuance and valid point. The forecast table and advisory history remain available below.
Retained advisory records
Return to latest advisoryEach entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.
Advisory comparison details
Solid: NHC Advisory 57 ·
Dashed: NHC Best track · . Comparison uses each record’s own geometry. A revision is not a landfall or impact prediction.
| Field | Selected issuance | Comparison issuance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maximum sustained wind | 45 kt · 52 mph | 50 kt · 58 mph | -5 kt |
| Minimum pressure | 990 hPa | 990 hPa | 0 hPa |
| Center position | 32.9°N, 116.1°W | 31.8°N, 116.3°W | Different observation times; not a forecast shift |
Forecast comparison unavailable: these records have no matching forecast valid times. No interpolation or six-hour step is assumed.
Potential impacts and monitoring context
Current NWS monitoring states: CA, NVCurrent warnings in the monitoring area
States under NHC’s coastal watches and warnings and inside the cone, Advisory 57: California and Nevada. Current geographical context; these alerts are not attributed to the cyclone and are not part of the historical advisory.
In force in this area 2
- High Wind Warning1until 18 Oct 07:00Z
- Red Flag Warning1until 18 Oct 03:00Z
Every alert in this area, most urgent first
- High Wind WarningSan Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire; San Diego County Inland Valleys; Riverside County Mountains; San Diego County Mountains; San Gorgonio Pass Near Banninguntil · NWS San Diego CA
- Red Flag WarningWestern Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area; Eastern Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area; Santa Susana Mountains; Southern Ventura County Mountains; Northern Ventura County Mountains; Interstate 5 Corridor; Western San Gabriel Mountains and Highway 14 Corridor; Eastern San Gabriel Mountains; Western Antelope Valley Foothills; Eastern Antelope Valley Foothills; Santa Clarita Valley; Ventura County Beaches; Ventura County Inland Coast; Lake Casitas; Ojai Valley; Central Ventura County Valleys; Malibu Coast; Calabasas and Agoura Hills; Western San Fernando Valley; Eastern San Fernando Valley; Southeastern Ventura County Valleys; Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valleyuntil · NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
Most urgent first, by the Briefing’s ranking. Checked .
High Wind Warning
San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire; San Diego County Inland Valleys; Riverside County Mountains; San Diego County Mountains; San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning
High Wind Warning issued October 17 at 11:53AM PDT until October 17 at 8:00PM PDT by NWS San Diego CA
Issued · ends
Official High Wind Warning bulletinRed Flag Warning
Western Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area; Eastern Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area; Santa Susana Mountains; Southern Ventura County Mountains; Northern Ventura County Mountains; Interstate 5 Corridor; Western San Gabriel Mountains and Highway 14 Corridor; Eastern San Gabriel Mountains; Western Antelope Valley Foothills; Eastern Antelope Valley Foothills; Santa Clarita Valley; Ventura County Beaches; Ventura County Inland Coast; Lake Casitas; Ojai Valley; Central Ventura County Valleys; Malibu Coast; Calabasas and Agoura Hills; Western San Fernando Valley; Eastern San Fernando Valley; Southeastern Ventura County Valleys; Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valley
Red Flag Warning issued October 17 at 9:11AM PDT until October 17 at 8:00PM PDT by NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
Issued · ends
Official Red Flag Warning bulletin
Official forecast table
Official forecast positions and intensity
NHC Advisory 57 · advisory · forecast cycle . Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.
| Valid time / lead | Position | Classification | Sustained wind |
|---|---|---|---|
+0 h from forecast cycle | 31.8°N, 116.3°W | low | 50 kt · 58 mph |
+3 h from forecast cycle | 32.9°N, 116.1°W | low | 45 kt · 52 mph |
+12 h from forecast cycle | 36.1°N, 115.3°W | post tropical cyclone | 35 kt · 40 mph |
Monitoring geography and current changes
- Area
- States under NHC’s coastal watches and warnings and inside the cone, Advisory 57: California and Nevada (NWS states: CA, NV)
Coastal watches and warnings: none in a U.S. state · Cone: CA, NV - Hazards
- Tornado, severe thunderstorm, flash flood, river flood, areal flood, coastal flood, tropical and other warnings, watches and advisories, and the forecasts for them
- Window
- In force now, with this advisory’s forecast
- Made by
- NHC’s own products, as this site’s pipeline published them, read again with each new advisory. Watch another area
The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.
Map
- High Wind Warning 1
- Red Flag Warning 1
NWS’s polygons as issued, or the zones a zone-issued alert names; SPC’s watches by their counties. Checked . Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC.
What changed, last 60 minutes
since , when this server began watching this areaNothing has changed since 19:29Z.
The products’ own words and times, and what is no longer in force since the last read. Never written by AI.
All published products and source descriptions
Wind speed probabilities
NHC’s wind speed probabilities are not reported for this advisory.
NHC’s coastal watches and warnings
The advisory’s watches and warnings are not reported.
Intensity forecast
The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from NHC’s Advisory 57 (). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.
Satellite
The storm’s page shows it on the satellite, loaded by your browser.
Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.
Model guidance
The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from NHC’s Advisory 57 (). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.
SPC Day 1 outlook
- General Thunderstorms Risk
SPC’s Day 1 categorical outlook, valid to , issued . SPC’s categories, as drawn. Data: NOAA/SPC.
Watches
No tornado or severe thunderstorm watch in force in this area.
SPC’s watches, by number, matched by the counties they list. Data: NOAA/SPC.
Mesoscale discussions
No mesoscale discussion reaches this area.
SPC’s mesoscale discussions whose outline reaches the area. Data: NOAA/SPC.
Storm ingredients
SPC’s hourly mesoanalysis, observed soundings and model guidance for the area, on the Analysis tab with its own clocks.
Drawn by the Analysis tab’s own renderer. Data: NOAA/SPC, NOAA/NCEP.
Flash-flood risk, Day 1
- Marginal
- Slight
WPC’s excessive rainfall outlook, to , issued : a chance of flash flooding, in four categories. Data: NOAA/WPC.
River gauges in flood
No river, coastal or lake gauge in this area is in flood, observed or forecast; 2 gauges at action stage.
NWS’s gauges at flood stage or above in the area, worst first, each with its forecast hydrograph on Rain & rivers. Data: NOAA/NWPS.
Rain expected and rain that fell
WPC’s rain forecast and MRMS’s radar estimate of the rain that fell, on the Briefing’s map for the area.
Data: NOAA/WPC, NOAA/NSSL MRMS.
Radar
NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.
Live tiles; the radar keeps no last-good copy.
Sources
NHC advisory, as published checked
NWS warnings and SPC watches checked
NWS watches and advisories checked
SPC mesoscale discussions checked
SPC Day 1 outlook checked
WPC excessive rainfall checked
NWPS river gauges checked
Radar live tiles, no last-good copy
Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.