Tropical Storm Rachel

40 kt · 46 mph · 995 hPa · NE at 6 kt

Storm Mode · NHC Advisory 51 · 9 Oct 21:00Z

Historical advisory selected · current imagery and impacts are not attached

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Replay coverage and interpretation

Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.

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NHC forecast for Tropical Storm Rachel, Advisory 51; rendered by MaverickWX

Published advisory track · Advisory 51

Observed imagery loads separately from the advisory. The base map is not observed satellite imagery.

The cone describes center uncertainty; impacts can extend outside it.

MaverickWX map · Data: NOAA/NHC · not an official graphic

Use Forecast above to pin an official issuance and valid point. The forecast table and advisory history remain available below.

Official forecast positions and intensity

NHC Advisory 51 · advisory 9 Oct 21:00Z · forecast cycle 9 Oct 18:00Z. Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.

Published official forecast; no interpolated positions or winds
Valid time / lead	Position	Classification	Sustained wind
9 Oct 18:00Z +0 h from forecast cycle	23.0°N, 124.5°W	tropical storm	40 kt · 46 mph
9 Oct 21:00Z +3 h from forecast cycle	23.3°N, 124.0°W	tropical storm	40 kt · 46 mph
10 Oct 06:00Z +12 h from forecast cycle	24.2°N, 122.4°W	tropical storm	45 kt · 52 mph
10 Oct 18:00Z +24 h from forecast cycle	26.7°N, 119.4°W	tropical storm	50 kt · 58 mph
11 Oct 06:00Z +36 h from forecast cycle	30.9°N, 117.2°W	tropical storm	55 kt · 63 mph
11 Oct 18:00Z +48 h from forecast cycle	36.4°N, 115.0°W	post tropical cyclone	40 kt · 46 mph

Storm details

NHC Advisory 51 · 9 Oct 21:00Z

Center position: 23.3°N, 124.0°W
Minimum pressure: 995 hPa
Maximum sustained wind: 40 kt · 46 mph
Movement: NE at 6 kt
Change from comparison: Wind -5 kt · pressure 0 hPa
Compared with Best track · 9 Oct 18:00Z

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Forecast cycle 9 Oct 18:00Z. Center position belongs to the official state’s time, not imagery time.

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Advisory comparison

Compare with

Show previous forecast as a dashed line

Solid: Advisory 51 · 9 Oct 21:00Z
Dashed: Best track · 9 Oct 18:00Z

Compare positions and intensity

Solid: NHC Advisory 51 · 9 Oct 21:00Z
Dashed: NHC Best track · 9 Oct 18:00Z. Comparison uses each record’s own geometry. A revision is not a landfall or impact prediction.

Current-state revision (two separate official issuances)
Field	Selected issuance	Comparison issuance	Change
Maximum sustained wind	40 kt · 46 mph	45 kt · 52 mph	-5 kt
Minimum pressure	995 hPa	995 hPa	0 hPa
Center position	23.3°N, 124.0°W	23.0°N, 124.5°W	Different observation times; not a forecast shift

Forecast comparison unavailable: these records have no matching forecast valid times. No interpolation or six-hour step is assumed.

Data coverage

NHC/CPHC track, coastal alerts, probabilities and wind timing retain separate coverage and issuance.

Geographic context: Natural Earth boundaries and representative place labels. Radar coverage is limited offshore. Satellite pixels keep their source palette and actual observation time. Missing imagery is not clear weather.

Lightning activity — GOES GLM

Total lightning, including in-cloud activity. Not ground-strike locations or a safe-to-go-outside signal.

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Potential impacts and monitoring context

Current NWS monitoring states: AZ, CA, NV

Coastal alertsNot retained with this historical record Flooding rainOfficial rainfall context and coverage Storm surgeAvailability and coastal-only product limits Nearby severe warnings0 severe/flash-flood warnings in the named monitoring area · source current

Current warnings in the monitoring area

States under NHC’s coastal watches and warnings and inside the cone, Advisory 51: Arizona, California and Nevada. Current geographical context; these alerts are not attributed to the cyclone and are not part of the historical advisory.

In force in this area 2

High Wind Warning1until 18 Oct 07:00Z
Red Flag Warning1until 18 Oct 03:00Z

Every alert in this area, most urgent first

Most urgent first, by the Briefing’s ranking. Checked 19:37Z.

High Wind Warning
San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire; San Diego County Inland Valleys; Riverside County Mountains; San Diego County Mountains; San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning
High Wind Warning issued October 17 at 11:53AM PDT until October 17 at 8:00PM PDT by NWS San Diego CA
Issued 11:13Z · ends 18 Oct 07:00Z
Official High Wind Warning bulletin
Red Flag Warning
Western Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area; Eastern Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area; Santa Susana Mountains; Southern Ventura County Mountains; Northern Ventura County Mountains; Interstate 5 Corridor; Western San Gabriel Mountains and Highway 14 Corridor; Eastern San Gabriel Mountains; Western Antelope Valley Foothills; Eastern Antelope Valley Foothills; Santa Clarita Valley; Ventura County Beaches; Ventura County Inland Coast; Lake Casitas; Ojai Valley; Central Ventura County Valleys; Malibu Coast; Calabasas and Agoura Hills; Western San Fernando Valley; Eastern San Fernando Valley; Southeastern Ventura County Valleys; Los Angeles County San Gabriel Valley
Red Flag Warning issued October 17 at 9:11AM PDT until October 17 at 8:00PM PDT by NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
Issued 00:42Z · ends 18 Oct 03:00Z
Official Red Flag Warning bulletin

Advisory history and records

Retained advisory records

Return to latest advisory

Each entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.

Advisory history; retained records only
Official issuance	Revision kind	Record
NHC Advisory 58 · 11 Oct 15:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 85d06496
NHC Unnumbered state · 11 Oct 12:00Z	intermediate	Snapshot bc5660d7
NHC Advisory 57 · 11 Oct 09:00Z	correction	Snapshot a12d7e18
NHC Unnumbered state · 11 Oct 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot f6f8ce3c
NHC Advisory 56 · 11 Oct 03:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 4b174d0b
NHC Unnumbered state · 11 Oct 00:00Z	intermediate	Snapshot 77d38d26
NHC Advisory 55 · 10 Oct 21:00Z	intermediate	Snapshot 0cb8d882
NHC Unnumbered state · 10 Oct 18:00Z	intermediate	Snapshot 0ffea754
NHC Advisory 54 · 10 Oct 15:00Z	intermediate	Snapshot 6e86b8dd
NHC Unnumbered state · 10 Oct 12:00Z	intermediate	Snapshot c4dbeb45
NHC Advisory 53 · 10 Oct 09:00Z	intermediate	Snapshot 5b73d775
NHC Unnumbered state · 10 Oct 06:00Z	intermediate	Snapshot 9190e5b5
NHC Advisory 52 · 10 Oct 03:00Z	intermediate	Snapshot 4d71f0e8
NHC Unnumbered state · 10 Oct 00:00Z	intermediate	Snapshot b5781bdd
NHC Advisory 51 · 9 Oct 21:00Z	intermediate	Snapshot 7fac1fe9 · Selected
NHC Unnumbered state · 9 Oct 18:00Z	intermediate	Snapshot 5ce1b687
NHC Advisory 50 · 9 Oct 15:00Z	intermediate	Snapshot e0296577
NHC Unnumbered state · 9 Oct 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 5d525b4d
NHC Advisory 49 · 9 Oct 09:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 7559981e
NHC Unnumbered state · 9 Oct 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot c2811976
NHC Advisory 48 · 9 Oct 03:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 427fba26
NHC Unnumbered state · 9 Oct 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot cb89a510
NHC Advisory 47 · 8 Oct 21:00Z	advisory	Snapshot b0dbe685
NHC Unnumbered state · 8 Oct 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 2297bb02
NHC Advisory 46 · 8 Oct 15:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 4bc4725a
NHC Unnumbered state · 8 Oct 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot b8db9fad
NHC Advisory 45 · 8 Oct 09:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 4491dc7c
NHC Unnumbered state · 8 Oct 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot b76a94e5
NHC Advisory 44 · 8 Oct 03:00Z	advisory	Snapshot a73190d1
NHC Unnumbered state · 8 Oct 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot a2b2614e
NHC Advisory 43 · 7 Oct 21:00Z	advisory	Snapshot cf6cc5da
NHC Unnumbered state · 7 Oct 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot e53c6fd7
NHC Advisory 42 · 7 Oct 15:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 85af2724
NHC Unnumbered state · 7 Oct 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot f6408e43
NHC Advisory 41 · 7 Oct 09:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 21cf541f
NHC Unnumbered state · 7 Oct 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot bd9fc06a
NHC Advisory 40 · 7 Oct 03:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 8ed0a123
NHC Unnumbered state · 7 Oct 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 31484dcd
NHC Advisory 39 · 6 Oct 21:00Z	advisory	Snapshot afce6393
NHC Unnumbered state · 6 Oct 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 60e129f0
NHC Advisory 38 · 6 Oct 15:00Z	advisory	Snapshot cf73e3bd
NHC Unnumbered state · 6 Oct 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 1b36beb2
NHC Advisory 37 · 6 Oct 09:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 5c9ed3f8
NHC Unnumbered state · 6 Oct 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 7b0067de
NHC Advisory 36 · 6 Oct 03:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 30b0dc2e
NHC Unnumbered state · 6 Oct 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 3d790614
NHC Advisory 35 · 5 Oct 21:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 5271aad3
NHC Unnumbered state · 5 Oct 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot ee12c47a
NHC Advisory 34 · 5 Oct 15:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 2950eb9b
NHC Unnumbered state · 5 Oct 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot f79bf19d
NHC Advisory 33 · 5 Oct 09:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 86472920
NHC Unnumbered state · 5 Oct 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 28e4e8d7
NHC Advisory 32 · 5 Oct 03:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 8d79d4b3
NHC Unnumbered state · 5 Oct 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot e18fff2e
NHC Advisory 31 · 4 Oct 21:00Z	advisory	Snapshot e708da1c
NHC Unnumbered state · 4 Oct 18:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 6a1d7740
NHC Advisory 30 · 4 Oct 15:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 2db6b701
NHC Unnumbered state · 4 Oct 12:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 954ac678
NHC Advisory 29 · 4 Oct 09:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 39af5130
NHC Unnumbered state · 4 Oct 06:00Z	advisory	Snapshot c313df29

Monitoring geography and current changes

Area: States under NHC’s coastal watches and warnings and inside the cone, Advisory 51: Arizona, California and Nevada (NWS states: AZ, CA, NV)
Coastal watches and warnings: none in a U.S. state · Cone: AZ, CA, NV
Hazards: Tornado, severe thunderstorm, flash flood, river flood, areal flood, coastal flood, tropical and other warnings, watches and advisories, and the forecasts for them
Window: In force now, with this advisory’s forecast
Made by: NHC’s own products, as this site’s pipeline published them, read again with each new advisory. Watch another area

The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.

Map

High Wind Warning 1
Red Flag Warning 1

NWS’s polygons as issued, or the zones a zone-issued alert names; SPC’s watches by their counties. Checked 19:37Z. Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC.

What changed, last 60 minutes

since 19:28Z, when this server began watching this area

Nothing has changed since 19:28Z.

The products’ own words and times, and what is no longer in force since the last read. Never written by AI.

All published products and source descriptions

Forecast track

The official forecast track, drawn by this site from NHC’s Advisory 51 (21:00Z). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.

Wind speed probabilities

NHC’s wind speed probabilities are not reported for this advisory.

NHC’s coastal watches and warnings

The advisory’s watches and warnings are not reported.

Intensity forecast

The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from NHC’s Advisory 51 (21:00Z). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.

Satellite

The storm’s page shows it on the satellite, loaded by your browser.

Open the storm’s page

Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.

Model guidance

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast for Tropical Storm Rachel, NHC Advisory 51

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from NHC’s Advisory 51 (21:00Z). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.

SPC Day 1 outlook

General Thunderstorms Risk highest in this area

SPC’s Day 1 categorical outlook, valid 16:30Z to 18 Oct 12:00Z, issued 16:14Z. SPC’s categories, as drawn. Data: NOAA/SPC.

Watches

No tornado or severe thunderstorm watch in force in this area.

SPC’s watches, by number, matched by the counties they list. Data: NOAA/SPC.

Mesoscale discussions

No mesoscale discussion reaches this area.

SPC’s mesoscale discussions whose outline reaches the area. Data: NOAA/SPC.

Storm ingredients

SPC’s hourly mesoanalysis, observed soundings and model guidance for the area, on the Analysis tab with its own clocks.

Open the Analysis tab

Drawn by the Analysis tab’s own renderer. Data: NOAA/SPC, NOAA/NCEP.

Flash-flood risk, Day 1

Marginal
Slight

WPC’s excessive rainfall outlook, 16:00Z to 18 Oct 12:00Z, issued 15:39Z: a chance of flash flooding, in four categories. Data: NOAA/WPC.

River gauges in flood

No river, coastal or lake gauge in this area is in flood, observed or forecast; 3 gauges at action stage.

NWS’s gauges at flood stage or above in the area, worst first, each with its forecast hydrograph on Rain & rivers. Data: NOAA/NWPS.

Rain expected and rain that fell

WPC’s rain forecast and MRMS’s radar estimate of the rain that fell, on the Briefing’s map for the area.

Open Rain & rivers

Data: NOAA/WPC, NOAA/NSSL MRMS.

Radar

NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.

Open the radar

Live tiles; the radar keeps no last-good copy.

Sources

NHC advisory, as published checked 19:35Z
NWS warnings and SPC watches checked 19:37Z
NWS watches and advisories checked 19:37Z
SPC mesoscale discussions checked 19:37Z
SPC Day 1 outlook checked 19:35Z
WPC excessive rainfall checked 19:35Z
NWPS river gauges checked 19:35Z
Radar live tiles, no last-good copy

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.