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Tropical Storm Pena

Tropical Storm 46 mph (40 kt) · 1002 hPa · W at 12 mph (10 kt)

CPHC Advisory 2 · 03:00Z

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CPHC forecast for Tropical Storm Pena, Advisory 2; rendered by MaverickWX

Published advisory track · Advisory 2

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Basemap

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Replay coverage and interpretation

Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.

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Analysis

Area, source times and interpretation

Current cached context, independently dated. Regional products keep their published footprint; they are not clipped or attributed to one storm. This section remains separate from the historical replay cursor and official cyclone forecast. Use Forecast to pin a retained model package.

Soundings: what weather balloons measured

SPC’s skew-T diagram and hodograph of the sounding at Mazatlán, Mexico (76458), 00Z. Its levels are in the table below. — Observed Sounding at Mazatlán, Mexico (76458), for 00:00Z (6 h 19 min ago). SPC’s graphic; the values in its panels (CAPE, shear, the indices) are SPC’s computations from these levels. Data: NOAA/SPC.

A balloon launched about an hour before the time named, measuring as it rose and drifted with the wind: the atmosphere above one place, at one time. Model soundings, which are forecasts, are not shown here.

The levels this sounding was drawn from (48)

Mazatlán, Mexico (76458): the surface first, then up through the atmosphere. Temperature and dew point in °C, as measured.
Pressure	Height	Temperature	Dew point	Wind
1010 mb	4 m	30.2	26.0	calm
1000 mb	95 m	27.4	20.4	300° 10 kt
977 mb	300 m	25.4	20.1	290° 12 kt
958 mb	472 m	23.8	19.9	—
944 mb	601 m	23.4	18.6	300° 8 kt
925 mb	778 m	22.8	16.8	295° 4 kt
912 mb	902 m	22.0	16.0	015° 4 kt
888 mb	1135 m	20.4	14.4	—
876 mb	1253 m	20.2	11.2	—
863 mb	1383 m	21.4	4.4	—
851 mb	1505 m	19.9	11.8	130° 4 kt
850 mb	1515 m	19.8	11.8	125° 2 kt
834 mb	1679 m	18.6	10.6	—
822 mb	1803 m	18.5	5.6	285° 2 kt
794 mb	2099 m	17.2	1.5	210° 8 kt
749 mb	2595 m	13.6	3.6	—
714 mb	2995 m	10.8	-4.9	210° 16 kt
700 mb	3161 m	9.6	-8.4	215° 12 kt
663 mb	3608 m	6.4	-10.7	240° 14 kt
653 mb	3733 m	5.8	-13.2	—
639 mb	3909 m	5.7	-36.0	230° 10 kt
616 mb	4204 m	3.9	-36.5	260° 6 kt
594 mb	4497 m	2.2	-37.0	255° 12 kt
572 mb	4800 m	0.4	-37.6	275° 16 kt
538 mb	5294 m	-2.5	-38.5	—
524 mb	5502 m	-3.9	-19.9	—
500 mb	5870 m	-6.5	-27.5	270° 19 kt
467 mb	6397 m	-10.5	-30.5	—
438 mb	6886 m	-12.5	-34.5	—
400 mb	7570 m	-17.1	-36.1	290° 33 kt
373 mb	8084 m	-20.6	-39.6	280° 29 kt
321 mb	9188 m	-28.1	-47.1	—
300 mb	9670 m	-32.1	-47.1	270° 35 kt
250 mb	10930 m	-43.1	-51.1	270° 47 kt
233 mb	11401 m	-45.5	-59.5	280° 56 kt
201 mb	12368 m	-52.7	-68.7	—
200 mb	12400 m	-53.1	-69.1	265° 56 kt
163 mb	13679 m	-63.9	-74.9	—
150 mb	14180 m	-68.7	-75.7	260° 53 kt
131 mb	14981 m	-72.1	-82.1	—
101 mb	16483 m	-78.8	-87.9	240° 43 kt
100 mb	16540 m	-79.1	-88.1	240° 45 kt
82 mb	17675 m	-76.7	-87.1	320° 21 kt
70 mb	18590 m	-73.3	-88.3	230° 12 kt
60 mb	19509 m	-68.3	-92.3	210° 12 kt
50 mb	20610 m	-65.9	-97.9	305° 4 kt
40 mb	21969 m	-61.9	-94.9	210° 2 kt
34 mb	22905 m	-60.7	-93.7	—

Every station with a sounding (77)

SPC observed soundings checked 06:15Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

Impacts

No supported U.S. monitoring area

Coastal alertsNo coastal alerts issued in this advisory Flooding rainOfficial rainfall context and coverage Storm surgeAvailability and coastal-only product limits Warnings in monitored areaNWS coverage unavailable here; not a global all-clear

Official forecast table

Forecast points

CPHC Advisory 2 · advisory 03:00Z · forecast cycle 00:00Z. Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.

Published official forecast; no interpolated positions or winds
Valid time / lead	Position	Classification	Sustained wind
00:00Z +0 h from forecast cycle	11.2°N, 150.6°W	Tropical storm	46 mph (40 kt)
03:00Z +3 h from forecast cycle	11.2°N, 151.1°W	Tropical storm	46 mph (40 kt)
12:00Z +12 h from forecast cycle	11.4°N, 152.7°W	Tropical storm	58 mph (50 kt)
8 Nov 00:00Z +24 h from forecast cycle	11.3°N, 154.7°W	Tropical storm	63 mph (55 kt)
8 Nov 12:00Z +36 h from forecast cycle	11.3°N, 156.7°W	Tropical storm	69 mph (60 kt)
9 Nov 00:00Z +48 h from forecast cycle	11.3°N, 158.3°W	Tropical storm	69 mph (60 kt)
9 Nov 12:00Z +60 h from forecast cycle	11.3°N, 160.0°W	Tropical storm	69 mph (60 kt)
10 Nov 00:00Z +72 h from forecast cycle	11.4°N, 161.8°W	Tropical storm	69 mph (60 kt)
11 Nov 00:00Z +96 h from forecast cycle	11.7°N, 165.9°W	Hurricane	75 mph (65 kt)
12 Nov 00:00Z +120 h from forecast cycle	12.8°N, 171.9°W	Hurricane	75 mph (65 kt)

Advisory history and records

Advisory history

Return to latest advisory

Each entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.

Advisory history; retained records only
Official issuance	Revision kind	Record
CPHC Advisory 2 · 03:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 6eb780c9 · Selected
CPHC Unnumbered state · 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot c16d8efc
CPHC Advisory 1 · 6 Nov 21:00Z	first	Snapshot 5be09be7

Monitoring geography

Area: None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Advisory 2
Coastal watches and warnings: none in a U.S. state · Cone: crosses no U.S. state
Hazards: —
Window: In force now, with this advisory’s forecast
Made by: CPHC’s own products, as this site’s pipeline published them, read again with each new advisory. Watch another area

The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.

All published products and source descriptions

Forecast track

The official forecast track, drawn by this site from CPHC’s Advisory 2 (03:00Z). Not an official CPHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. CPHC’s own.

Wind speed probabilities

Chance of sustained wind of at least 34, 50 and 64 knots, by place
Place	34 kt	50 kt	64 kt
15n 170w	15%	4%	1%
10n 165w	12%	3%	—
15n 175w	9%	—	—
10n 170w	8%	—	—
10n 160w	6%	—	—
10n 175w	3%	—	—
15n 165w	3%	—	—
Johnston Isl	3%	—	—

NHC’s chance of sustained wind of at least each speed at each place it lists, through 12 Nov 00:00Z; the places with the highest chance of 34 kt first. Issued 03:00Z. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s table.

NHC’s coastal watches and warnings

NHC has no coastal watch or warning in effect for this storm.

In NHC’s words, Advisory 2, issued 03:00Z. The areas NHC names, in the United States and abroad; for a place outside the United States its national service is the warning authority. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s advisory.

Intensity forecast

The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from CPHC’s Advisory 2 (03:00Z). Not an official CPHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. CPHC’s own.

Satellite

The storm’s page shows it on NASA GIBS (NOAA GOES, JMA Himawari)’s imagery, loaded by your browser. GOES-West at 14° from the storm's meridian.

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Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.

Model guidance

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast for Tropical Storm Pena, CPHC Advisory 2

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from CPHC’s Advisory 2 (03:00Z). Not an official CPHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. CPHC’s own.

Radar

NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.

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Details

CPHC Advisory 2 · 03:00Z

Center position: 11.2°N, 151.1°W
Minimum pressure: 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind: 46 mph (40 kt)
Movement: W at 12 mph (10 kt)
Since the advisory compared: Wind 0 kt · pressure 0 hPa
Compared with Best track · 00:00Z

Read official advisory (CPHC) ↗Official discussion ↗

Forecast cycle 00:00Z. Center position belongs to the official state’s time, not imagery time.

Map layers

Lightning activity — GOES GLM

Public event region Aggregation interval Show density on map

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Coverage and interpretation

Total lightning, including in-cloud activity. Not ground-strike locations or a safe-to-go-outside signal.

Cached lightning source details and text readings

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Advisory comparison

Show previous forecast as a dashed line

Solid: Advisory 2 · 03:00Z
Dashed: Best track · 00:00Z

Compare positions and intensity

Solid: CPHC Advisory 2 · 03:00Z
Dashed: CPHC Best track · 00:00Z. Comparison uses each record’s own geometry. A revision is not a landfall or impact prediction.

Current-state revision (two separate official issuances)
Field	Selected issuance	Comparison issuance	Change
Maximum sustained wind	46 mph (40 kt)	46 mph (40 kt)	0 kt
Minimum pressure	1002 hPa	1002 hPa	0 hPa
Center position	11.2°N, 151.1°W	11.2°N, 150.6°W	Different observation times; not a forecast shift

Forecast comparison unavailable: these records have no matching forecast valid times. No interpolation or six-hour step is assumed.

None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Advisory 2. Current geographical context; these alerts are not attributed to the cyclone.

Data coverage

NHC/CPHC track, coastal alerts, probabilities and wind timing retain separate coverage and issuance.

Geographic context: Natural Earth boundaries and representative place labels. Radar coverage is limited offshore. Satellite pixels keep their source palette and actual observation time. Missing imagery is not clear weather.

No supported U.S. NWS monitoring area for this advisory. This does not mean no warnings worldwide.

Sources

CPHC advisory, as published checked 06:18Z
Radar live tiles, no last-good copy

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.

Outside NWS coverageTropical Storm Pena

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06:19Z