STORM MODEWeather tracking workspace

Subtropical Storm Josephine

55 kt · 63 mph · 988 hPa · N at 5 kt

Storm Mode · NHC Best track · 00:00Z

Latest published best-track state

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NHC forecast for Subtropical Storm Josephine, Best track; rendered by MaverickWX

Published advisory track · Best track

Observed imagery loads separately from the advisory. The base map is not observed satellite imagery.

The cone describes center uncertainty; impacts can extend outside it.

MaverickWX map · Data: NOAA/NHC · not an official graphic

Change time or forecast product

Recorded weather · gaps are marked. Coverage begins with recording activation.

Live sources keep independent clocks.

Replay coverage and interpretation

Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.

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Analysis

Area, source times and interpretation

Current cached context, independently dated. Regional products keep their published footprint; they are not clipped or attributed to one storm. This section remains separate from the historical replay cursor and official cyclone forecast. Use Forecast to pin a retained model package.

Soundings: what weather balloons measured

SPC’s skew-T diagram and hodograph of the sounding at Rapid City, SD (UNR), 00Z. Its levels are in the table below. — Observed Sounding at Rapid City, SD (UNR), for 00:00Z (1 h 50 min ago). SPC’s graphic; the values in its panels (CAPE, shear, the indices) are SPC’s computations from these levels. Data: NOAA/SPC.

A balloon launched about an hour before the time named, measuring as it rose and drifted with the wind: the atmosphere above one place, at one time. Model soundings, which are forecasts, are not shown here.

The levels this sounding was drawn from (60)

Rapid City, SD (UNR): the surface first, then up through the atmosphere. Temperature and dew point in °C, as measured.
Pressure	Height	Temperature	Dew point	Wind
903 mb	1029 m	20.4	6.4	165° 6 kt
892 mb	1134 m	19.4	5.8	165° 15 kt
875 mb	1299 m	17.7	4.7	165° 19 kt
863 mb	1418 m	16.5	4.0	165° 18 kt
850 mb	1548 m	15.2	3.2	175° 18 kt
835 mb	1699 m	14.2	3.2	—
799 mb	2070 m	14.0	3.0	—
751 mb	2586 m	9.7	1.1	210° 20 kt
729 mb	2834 m	7.7	0.2	210° 20 kt
718 mb	2960 m	6.6	-0.4	210° 19 kt
700 mb	3168 m	5.0	-2.0	215° 18 kt
688 mb	3309 m	3.8	-3.2	—
672 mb	3499 m	2.0	-3.9	215° 22 kt
662 mb	3619 m	0.9	-4.3	220° 22 kt
651 mb	3754 m	-0.4	-4.8	215° 21 kt
624 mb	4092 m	-2.4	-9.4	220° 22 kt
591 mb	4523 m	-4.3	-17.3	—
573 mb	4766 m	-6.1	-17.0	265° 20 kt
530 mb	5372 m	-9.8	-21.4	265° 24 kt
512 mb	5638 m	-11.7	-19.7	265° 28 kt
501 mb	5805 m	-11.7	-21.7	—
500 mb	5820 m	-11.7	-20.7	255° 30 kt
489 mb	5990 m	-12.1	-22.9	255° 32 kt
474 mb	6227 m	-14.0	-22.7	265° 27 kt
462 mb	6421 m	-15.5	-22.5	—
448 mb	6652 m	-17.5	-25.5	—
433 mb	6905 m	-19.2	-33.3	255° 26 kt
419 mb	7150 m	-20.9	-40.9	—
406 mb	7381 m	-22.9	-42.3	275° 21 kt
400 mb	7490 m	-23.9	-42.9	270° 20 kt
377 mb	7921 m	-24.3	-49.3	—
365 mb	8151 m	-26.2	-48.5	265° 41 kt
355 mb	8347 m	-27.8	-47.8	270° 38 kt
338 mb	8695 m	-30.6	-46.5	270° 51 kt
315 mb	9194 m	-34.7	-44.7	270° 65 kt
300 mb	9540 m	-37.5	-43.5	275° 69 kt
289 mb	9796 m	-39.3	-44.2	—
264 mb	10406 m	-44.4	-50.8	265° 86 kt
254 mb	10665 m	-46.7	-53.7	—
250 mb	10770 m	-47.7	-55.7	270° 76 kt
232 mb	11259 m	-50.7	-60.2	260° 60 kt
222 mb	11546 m	-51.8	-61.8	260° 60 kt
200 mb	12220 m	-52.9	-64.9	270° 49 kt
188 mb	12618 m	-54.2	-67.1	260° 40 kt
177 mb	13003 m	-55.4	-68.9	260° 42 kt
161 mb	13604 m	-57.5	-71.5	250° 62 kt
150 mb	14050 m	-58.9	-72.9	255° 57 kt
139 mb	14526 m	-60.6	-74.0	265° 53 kt
127 mb	15086 m	-62.5	-75.5	255° 44 kt
117 mb	15590 m	-63.8	-76.8	250° 37 kt
107 mb	16137 m	-63.7	-76.7	—
100 mb	16550 m	-66.3	-78.3	260° 31 kt
88 mb	17322 m	-67.1	-79.1	275° 24 kt
78 mb	18069 m	-64.7	-77.7	—
56 mb	20075 m	-63.6	-77.6	255° 8 kt
45 mb	21419 m	-62.1	-77.1	245° 12 kt
34 mb	23118 m	-62.7	-77.7	—
24 mb	25330 m	-58.4	-76.8	235° 2 kt
14 mb	28762 m	-53.1	-74.0	350° 11 kt
7 mb	33582 m	-45.5	-69.5	—

Every station with a sounding (77)

SPC observed soundings checked 01:45Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

Storm details

NHC Best track · 00:00Z

Center position: 37.5°N, 69.5°W
Minimum pressure: 988 hPa
Maximum sustained wind: 55 kt · 63 mph
Movement: N at 5 kt
Since comparison advisory: Wind 0 kt · pressure -2 hPa
Compared with Advisory 1 · 21 Oct 21:00Z

Read official track data ↗Official discussion ↗

Forecast cycle 21 Oct 18:00Z. Center position belongs to the official state’s time, not imagery time.

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Advisory comparison

Show previous forecast as a dashed line

Solid: Best track · 00:00Z
Dashed: Advisory 1 · 21 Oct 21:00Z

Compare positions and intensity

Solid: NHC Best track · 00:00Z
Dashed: NHC Advisory 1 · 21 Oct 21:00Z. Comparison uses each record’s own geometry. A revision is not a landfall or impact prediction.

Current-state revision (two separate official issuances)
Field	Selected issuance	Comparison issuance	Change
Maximum sustained wind	55 kt · 63 mph	55 kt · 63 mph	0 kt
Minimum pressure	988 hPa	990 hPa	-2 hPa
Center position	37.5°N, 69.5°W	37.4°N, 69.5°W	Different observation times; not a forecast shift

Official forecast revisions at matching valid times
Valid time	Selected position / wind	Previous position / wind
21 Oct 18:00Z	37.1°N, 69.6°W 55 kt · 63 mph	37.1°N, 69.6°W 55 kt · 63 mph
21 Oct 21:00Z	37.4°N, 69.5°W 55 kt · 63 mph	37.4°N, 69.5°W 55 kt · 63 mph
06:00Z	38.1°N, 69.0°W 60 kt · 69 mph	38.1°N, 69.0°W 60 kt · 69 mph
18:00Z	39.6°N, 66.2°W 65 kt · 75 mph	39.6°N, 66.2°W 65 kt · 75 mph
23 Oct 06:00Z	41.4°N, 61.6°W 70 kt · 81 mph	41.4°N, 61.6°W 70 kt · 81 mph
23 Oct 18:00Z	43.3°N, 56.9°W 60 kt · 69 mph	43.3°N, 56.9°W 60 kt · 69 mph
24 Oct 06:00Z	44.1°N, 53.5°W 50 kt · 58 mph	44.1°N, 53.5°W 50 kt · 58 mph
24 Oct 18:00Z	44.4°N, 50.4°W 45 kt · 52 mph	44.4°N, 50.4°W 45 kt · 52 mph
25 Oct 18:00Z	43.5°N, 37.5°W 40 kt · 46 mph	43.5°N, 37.5°W 40 kt · 46 mph

Data coverage

NHC/CPHC track, coastal alerts, probabilities and wind timing retain separate coverage and issuance.

Geographic context: Natural Earth boundaries and representative place labels. Radar coverage is limited offshore. Satellite pixels keep their source palette and actual observation time. Missing imagery is not clear weather.

No supported U.S. NWS monitoring area for this advisory. This does not mean no warnings worldwide.

Lightning activity — GOES GLM

Total lightning, including in-cloud activity. Not ground-strike locations or a safe-to-go-outside signal.

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Cached lightning source details and text readings

Map layers, imagery opacity and source clocks

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Impacts

No supported U.S. monitoring area

Coastal alertsNo coastal alerts issued in this advisory Flooding rainOfficial rainfall context and coverage Storm surgeAvailability and coastal-only product limits Warnings in monitored areaNWS coverage unavailable here; not a global all-clear

Current warnings in the monitoring area

None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Best track. Current geographical context; these alerts are not attributed to the cyclone.

No U.S. area

No U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone. The storm’s own panels are shown, and no NWS alert is listed.

Official forecast table

Forecast points

NHC Best track · advisory 00:00Z · forecast cycle 21 Oct 18:00Z. Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.

Published official forecast; no interpolated positions or winds
Valid time / lead	Position	Classification	Sustained wind
21 Oct 18:00Z +0 h from forecast cycle	37.1°N, 69.6°W	subtropical storm	55 kt · 63 mph
21 Oct 21:00Z +3 h from forecast cycle	37.4°N, 69.5°W	subtropical storm	55 kt · 63 mph
06:00Z +12 h from forecast cycle	38.1°N, 69.0°W	subtropical storm	60 kt · 69 mph
18:00Z +24 h from forecast cycle	39.6°N, 66.2°W	extratropical	65 kt · 75 mph
23 Oct 06:00Z +36 h from forecast cycle	41.4°N, 61.6°W	extratropical	70 kt · 81 mph
23 Oct 18:00Z +48 h from forecast cycle	43.3°N, 56.9°W	extratropical	60 kt · 69 mph
24 Oct 06:00Z +60 h from forecast cycle	44.1°N, 53.5°W	extratropical	50 kt · 58 mph
24 Oct 18:00Z +72 h from forecast cycle	44.4°N, 50.4°W	post tropical cyclone	45 kt · 52 mph
25 Oct 18:00Z +96 h from forecast cycle	43.5°N, 37.5°W	post tropical cyclone	40 kt · 46 mph

Advisory history and records

Advisory history

Return to latest advisory

Each entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.

Advisory history; retained records only
Official issuance	Revision kind	Record
NHC Unnumbered state · 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 77cf7e1f · Selected
NHC Advisory 1 · 21 Oct 21:00Z	first	Snapshot a2f96dd0

Monitoring geography and current changes

Area: None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Best track
Coastal watches and warnings: none in a U.S. state · Cone: crosses no U.S. state
Hazards: —
Window: In force now, with this advisory’s forecast
Made by: NHC’s own products, as this site’s pipeline published them, read again with each new advisory. Watch another area

The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.

All published products and source descriptions

Forecast track

The official forecast track, drawn by this site from NHC’s Best track (00:00Z). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.

Wind speed probabilities

Chance of sustained wind of at least 34, 50 and 64 knots, by place
Place	34 kt	50 kt	64 kt
Nantucket MA	99%	—	—
Sable Island	92%	36%	6%
Hyannis MA	66%	—	—
Montauk Point	63%	—	—
Eddy Point NS	59%	—	—
Cape Race Nfld	57%	7%	2%
Ile St Pierre	56%	3%	—
Yarmouth NS	54%	—	—
Providence RI	50%	—	—
Sydney NS	48%	—	—
Halifax NS	45%	—	—
Burgeo Nfld	32%	—	—

NHC’s chance of sustained wind of at least each speed at each place it lists, through 26 Oct 18:00Z; the places with the highest chance of 34 kt first. Issued 21 Oct 21:00Z. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s table.

NHC’s coastal watches and warnings

NHC has no coastal watch or warning in effect for this storm.

In NHC’s words, Best track, issued 00:00Z. The areas NHC names, in the United States and abroad; for a place outside the United States its national service is the warning authority. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s advisory.

Intensity forecast

The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from NHC’s Best track (00:00Z). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.

Satellite

The storm’s page shows it on NASA GIBS (NOAA GOES, JMA Himawari)’s imagery, loaded by your browser. GOES-East at 6° from the storm's meridian.

Open the storm’s page

Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.

Model guidance

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast for Subtropical Storm Josephine, NHC Best track

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from NHC’s Best track (00:00Z). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.

Radar

NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.

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Live tiles; the radar keeps no last-good copy.

Sources

NHC best track, as published checked 01:50Z
Radar live tiles, no last-good copy

NWS coverage unavailableSubtropical Storm Josephine · — alerts

No supported NWS monitoring area. Check local warning authorities.

Not checked

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.