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Subtropical Storm Josephine

55 kt · 63 mph · 990 hPa · N at 5 kt

Storm Mode · NHC Advisory 1 · 21 Oct 21:00Z

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NHC forecast for Subtropical Storm Josephine, Advisory 1; rendered by MaverickWX

Published advisory track · Advisory 1

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MaverickWX map · Data: NOAA/NHC · not an official graphic

Change time or forecast product

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Replay coverage and interpretation

Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.

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Analysis

Area, source times and interpretation

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Soundings: what weather balloons measured

SPC’s skew-T diagram and hodograph of the sounding at Albany, NY (ALB), 00Z. Its levels are in the table below. — Observed Sounding at Albany, NY (ALB), for 00:00Z (1 h 57 min ago). SPC’s graphic; the values in its panels (CAPE, shear, the indices) are SPC’s computations from these levels. Data: NOAA/SPC.

A balloon launched about an hour before the time named, measuring as it rose and drifted with the wind: the atmosphere above one place, at one time. Model soundings, which are forecasts, are not shown here.

The levels this sounding was drawn from (59)

Albany, NY (ALB): the surface first, then up through the atmosphere. Temperature and dew point in °C, as measured.
Pressure	Height	Temperature	Dew point	Wind
1008 mb	95 m	14.6	2.6	345° 3 kt
1000 mb	180 m	14.2	1.2	030° 10 kt
985 mb	305 m	13.3	0.8	025° 12 kt
972 mb	419 m	12.4	0.4	—
950 mb	610 m	11.3	-1.3	020° 15 kt
936 mb	735 m	10.6	-2.4	—
925 mb	833 m	10.2	-0.8	000° 11 kt
904 mb	1023 m	8.8	-1.2	—
883 mb	1219 m	7.5	-6.0	030° 8 kt
859 mb	1444 m	7.6	-17.4	—
850 mb	1530 m	7.2	-22.8	020° 13 kt
838 mb	1647 m	7.0	-23.0	—
824 mb	1785 m	7.4	-25.6	—
799 mb	2038 m	8.0	-23.0	—
780 mb	2236 m	7.4	-20.6	—
767 mb	2374 m	6.8	-22.2	—
742 mb	2645 m	5.0	-22.0	—
716 mb	2934 m	3.4	-25.6	—
706 mb	3048 m	2.9	-23.8	030° 12 kt
700 mb	3117 m	2.6	-23.4	030° 12 kt
685 mb	3292 m	2.0	-25.0	—
673 mb	3434 m	2.4	-24.6	—
661 mb	3580 m	2.0	-27.0	—
630 mb	3962 m	-0.4	-27.6	320° 11 kt
606 mb	4267 m	-2.9	-28.5	330° 10 kt
585 mb	4552 m	-5.3	-29.3	—
563 mb	4851 m	-7.9	-31.9	—
547 mb	5074 m	-9.7	-34.7	—
518 mb	5486 m	-13.1	-32.9	335° 4 kt
504 mb	5700 m	-14.9	-31.9	—
500 mb	5760 m	-15.3	-33.3	100° 2 kt
478 mb	6096 m	-18.4	-32.4	165° 1 kt
459 mb	6401 m	-20.7	-34.0	240° 1 kt
440 mb	6706 m	-22.8	-38.4	190° 3 kt
400 mb	7400 m	-27.1	-45.1	225° 12 kt
388 mb	7620 m	-28.2	-48.1	220° 13 kt
372 mb	7925 m	-29.9	-47.5	225° 18 kt
356 mb	8230 m	-31.6	-46.6	220° 23 kt
341 mb	8534 m	-33.5	-47.5	225° 29 kt
329 mb	8788 m	-34.3	-49.3	—
313 mb	9144 m	-36.3	-43.5	215° 49 kt
300 mb	9430 m	-38.1	-41.9	210° 52 kt
290 mb	9662 m	-40.1	-43.9	—
275 mb	10022 m	-42.7	-46.4	220° 58 kt
261 mb	10372 m	-45.1	-49.5	—
250 mb	10660 m	-43.1	-52.1	230° 33 kt
239 mb	10973 m	-44.2	-55.2	230° 31 kt
228 mb	11278 m	-45.5	-58.5	250° 34 kt
218 mb	11582 m	-46.6	-61.9	250° 34 kt
200 mb	12140 m	-48.7	-63.7	245° 32 kt
189 mb	12497 m	-50.9	-65.6	250° 31 kt
173 mb	13084 m	-54.5	-68.5	—
158 mb	13663 m	-57.7	-71.7	—
150 mb	13990 m	-59.5	-72.5	265° 30 kt
135 mb	14630 m	-61.4	-74.7	260° 30 kt
123 mb	15219 m	-64.7	-76.7	—
111 mb	15845 m	-64.9	-76.9	—
100 mb	16459 m	-64.7	-76.7	280° 35 kt
100 mb	16480 m	-64.7	-76.7	270° 34 kt

Every station with a sounding (77)

SPC observed soundings checked 01:45Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

Storm details

NHC Advisory 1 · 21 Oct 21:00Z

Center position: 37.4°N, 69.5°W
Minimum pressure: 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind: 55 kt · 63 mph
Movement: N at 5 kt
Since comparison advisory: Comparison unavailable

Read official advisory (NHC) ↗

Forecast cycle 21 Oct 18:00Z. Center position belongs to the official state’s time, not imagery time.

Watched places

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Advisory comparison

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Data coverage

NHC/CPHC track, coastal alerts, probabilities and wind timing retain separate coverage and issuance.

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No supported U.S. NWS monitoring area for this advisory. This does not mean no warnings worldwide.

Lightning activity — GOES GLM

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Impacts

No supported U.S. monitoring area

Coastal alertsNot retained with this historical record Flooding rainOfficial rainfall context and coverage Storm surgeAvailability and coastal-only product limits Warnings in monitored areaNWS coverage unavailable here; not a global all-clear

Current warnings in the monitoring area

None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Advisory 1. Current geographical context; these alerts are not attributed to the cyclone and are not part of the historical advisory.

No U.S. area

No U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone. The storm’s own panels are shown, and no NWS alert is listed.

Official forecast table

Forecast points

NHC Advisory 1 · advisory 21 Oct 21:00Z · forecast cycle 21 Oct 18:00Z. Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.

Published official forecast; no interpolated positions or winds
Valid time / lead	Position	Classification	Sustained wind
21 Oct 18:00Z +0 h from forecast cycle	37.1°N, 69.6°W	subtropical storm	55 kt · 63 mph
21 Oct 21:00Z +3 h from forecast cycle	37.4°N, 69.5°W	subtropical storm	55 kt · 63 mph
06:00Z +12 h from forecast cycle	38.1°N, 69.0°W	subtropical storm	60 kt · 69 mph
18:00Z +24 h from forecast cycle	39.6°N, 66.2°W	extratropical	65 kt · 75 mph
23 Oct 06:00Z +36 h from forecast cycle	41.4°N, 61.6°W	extratropical	70 kt · 81 mph
23 Oct 18:00Z +48 h from forecast cycle	43.3°N, 56.9°W	extratropical	60 kt · 69 mph
24 Oct 06:00Z +60 h from forecast cycle	44.1°N, 53.5°W	extratropical	50 kt · 58 mph
24 Oct 18:00Z +72 h from forecast cycle	44.4°N, 50.4°W	post tropical cyclone	45 kt · 52 mph
25 Oct 18:00Z +96 h from forecast cycle	43.5°N, 37.5°W	post tropical cyclone	40 kt · 46 mph

Advisory history and records

Advisory history

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Each entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.

Advisory history; retained records only
Official issuance	Revision kind	Record
NHC Unnumbered state · 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 77cf7e1f
NHC Advisory 1 · 21 Oct 21:00Z	first	Snapshot a2f96dd0 · Selected

Monitoring geography and current changes

Area: None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Advisory 1
Coastal watches and warnings: none in a U.S. state · Cone: crosses no U.S. state
Hazards: —
Window: In force now, with this advisory’s forecast
Made by: NHC’s own products, as this site’s pipeline published them, read again with each new advisory. Watch another area

The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.

All published products and source descriptions

Forecast track

The official forecast track, drawn by this site from NHC’s Advisory 1 (21:00Z). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.

Wind speed probabilities

NHC’s wind speed probabilities are not reported for this advisory.

NHC’s coastal watches and warnings

The advisory’s watches and warnings are not reported.

Intensity forecast

The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from NHC’s Advisory 1 (21:00Z). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.

Satellite

The storm’s page shows it on the satellite, loaded by your browser.

Open the storm’s page

Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.

Model guidance

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast for Subtropical Storm Josephine, NHC Advisory 1

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from NHC’s Advisory 1 (21:00Z). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.

Radar

NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.

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Sources

NHC advisory, as published checked 01:56Z
Radar live tiles, no last-good copy

NWS coverage unavailableSubtropical Storm Josephine · — alerts

No supported NWS monitoring area. Check local warning authorities.

Not checked

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.