STORM MODEWeather tracking workspace

Subtropical Storm Josephine

55 kt · 63 mph · 990 hPa · N at 5 kt

Storm Mode · NHC Advisory 1 · 21 Oct 21:00Z

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NHC forecast for Subtropical Storm Josephine, Advisory 1; rendered by MaverickWX

Published advisory track · Advisory 1

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MaverickWX map · Data: NOAA/NHC · not an official graphic

Change time or forecast product

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Live sources keep independent clocks.

Replay coverage and interpretation

Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.

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Analysis

Area, source times and interpretation

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Soundings: what weather balloons measured

SPC’s skew-T diagram and hodograph of the sounding at Aberdeen, SD (ABR), 00Z. Its levels are in the table below. — Observed Sounding at Aberdeen, SD (ABR), for 00:00Z (1 h 58 min ago). SPC’s graphic; the values in its panels (CAPE, shear, the indices) are SPC’s computations from these levels. Data: NOAA/SPC.

A balloon launched about an hour before the time named, measuring as it rose and drifted with the wind: the atmosphere above one place, at one time. Model soundings, which are forecasts, are not shown here.

The levels this sounding was drawn from (59)

Aberdeen, SD (ABR): the surface first, then up through the atmosphere. Temperature and dew point in °C, as measured.
Pressure	Height	Temperature	Dew point	Wind
975 mb	396 m	17.0	8.0	045° 6 kt
961 mb	521 m	18.0	7.0	—
925 mb	849 m	15.0	6.0	065° 13 kt
909 mb	996 m	14.0	4.0	—
892 mb	1156 m	14.4	0.4	—
882 mb	1251 m	14.4	1.1	100° 7 kt
860 mb	1464 m	14.6	-1.4	—
850 mb	1563 m	14.4	-0.6	010° 5 kt
834 mb	1723 m	13.8	-2.7	330° 2 kt
822 mb	1845 m	13.1	-3.0	310° 4 kt
811 mb	1958 m	12.3	-4.1	315° 3 kt
797 mb	2103 m	11.4	-5.6	265° 2 kt
774 mb	2347 m	9.6	-5.4	—
759 mb	2509 m	8.2	-7.8	—
711 mb	3043 m	3.2	-8.9	260° 8 kt
700 mb	3169 m	2.2	-10.8	270° 8 kt
690 mb	3285 m	1.4	-11.7	280° 7 kt
679 mb	3414 m	0.7	-12.3	270° 8 kt
666 mb	3568 m	-0.3	-12.3	—
648 mb	3787 m	-1.2	-17.4	305° 12 kt
632 mb	3985 m	-2.1	-22.1	—
615 mb	4201 m	-3.5	-18.4	300° 12 kt
593 mb	4488 m	-4.9	-26.9	—
574 mb	4743 m	-6.3	-23.3	—
562 mb	4907 m	-7.0	-24.6	260° 7 kt
544 mb	5160 m	-8.0	-26.5	260° 11 kt
533 mb	5319 m	-8.7	-27.7	—
511 mb	5643 m	-10.7	-25.7	280° 8 kt
500 mb	5810 m	-11.9	-27.9	275° 8 kt
489 mb	5980 m	-13.1	-29.1	—
470 mb	6280 m	-15.8	-29.4	280° 16 kt
457 mb	6493 m	-17.7	-29.7	—
447 mb	6657 m	-18.8	-32.0	275° 15 kt
411 mb	7281 m	-22.9	-40.9	—
400 mb	7480 m	-23.9	-41.9	260° 22 kt
381 mb	7833 m	-26.4	-39.3	270° 19 kt
371 mb	8024 m	-27.9	-39.9	—
353 mb	8377 m	-30.7	-38.5	275° 20 kt
340 mb	8643 m	-32.8	-37.4	270° 29 kt
313 mb	9218 m	-37.7	-41.4	280° 32 kt
300 mb	9510 m	-40.3	-43.9	275° 39 kt
284 mb	9881 m	-43.7	-46.8	270° 37 kt
272 mb	10169 m	-45.5	-49.1	—
258 mb	10521 m	-46.1	-52.4	285° 56 kt
250 mb	10730 m	-47.1	-55.1	290° 57 kt
235 mb	11137 m	-48.9	-57.9	—
217 mb	11655 m	-52.1	-61.1	290° 55 kt
207 mb	11959 m	-53.5	-62.5	285° 58 kt
200 mb	12180 m	-52.5	-62.5	280° 54 kt
190 mb	12510 m	-52.9	-64.1	285° 57 kt
179 mb	12893 m	-53.6	-66.3	275° 58 kt
168 mb	13300 m	-54.2	-68.2	275° 69 kt
153 mb	13894 m	-56.8	-72.4	280° 73 kt
150 mb	14020 m	-57.5	-73.5	285° 72 kt
140 mb	14452 m	-59.0	-75.8	285° 52 kt
130 mb	14917 m	-60.6	-78.3	270° 48 kt
117 mb	15570 m	-63.1	-82.5	285° 36 kt
107 mb	16118 m	-64.5	-85.5	—
100 mb	16530 m	-66.1	-88.1	265° 28 kt

Every station with a sounding (77)

SPC observed soundings checked 01:45Z · Data: NOAA/SPC

Storm details

NHC Advisory 1 · 21 Oct 21:00Z

Center position: 37.4°N, 69.5°W
Minimum pressure: 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind: 55 kt · 63 mph
Movement: N at 5 kt
Since comparison advisory: Comparison unavailable

Read official advisory (NHC) ↗

Forecast cycle 21 Oct 18:00Z. Center position belongs to the official state’s time, not imagery time.

Watched places

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Advisory comparison

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Data coverage

NHC/CPHC track, coastal alerts, probabilities and wind timing retain separate coverage and issuance.

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No supported U.S. NWS monitoring area for this advisory. This does not mean no warnings worldwide.

Lightning activity — GOES GLM

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Impacts

No supported U.S. monitoring area

Coastal alertsNot retained with this historical record Flooding rainOfficial rainfall context and coverage Storm surgeAvailability and coastal-only product limits Warnings in monitored areaNWS coverage unavailable here; not a global all-clear

Current warnings in the monitoring area

None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Advisory 1. Current geographical context; these alerts are not attributed to the cyclone and are not part of the historical advisory.

No U.S. area

No U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone. The storm’s own panels are shown, and no NWS alert is listed.

Official forecast table

Forecast points

NHC Advisory 1 · advisory 21 Oct 21:00Z · forecast cycle 21 Oct 18:00Z. Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.

Published official forecast; no interpolated positions or winds
Valid time / lead	Position	Classification	Sustained wind
21 Oct 18:00Z +0 h from forecast cycle	37.1°N, 69.6°W	subtropical storm	55 kt · 63 mph
21 Oct 21:00Z +3 h from forecast cycle	37.4°N, 69.5°W	subtropical storm	55 kt · 63 mph
06:00Z +12 h from forecast cycle	38.1°N, 69.0°W	subtropical storm	60 kt · 69 mph
18:00Z +24 h from forecast cycle	39.6°N, 66.2°W	extratropical	65 kt · 75 mph
23 Oct 06:00Z +36 h from forecast cycle	41.4°N, 61.6°W	extratropical	70 kt · 81 mph
23 Oct 18:00Z +48 h from forecast cycle	43.3°N, 56.9°W	extratropical	60 kt · 69 mph
24 Oct 06:00Z +60 h from forecast cycle	44.1°N, 53.5°W	extratropical	50 kt · 58 mph
24 Oct 18:00Z +72 h from forecast cycle	44.4°N, 50.4°W	post tropical cyclone	45 kt · 52 mph
25 Oct 18:00Z +96 h from forecast cycle	43.5°N, 37.5°W	post tropical cyclone	40 kt · 46 mph

Advisory history and records

Advisory history

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Each entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.

Advisory history; retained records only
Official issuance	Revision kind	Record
NHC Unnumbered state · 00:00Z	advisory	Snapshot 77cf7e1f
NHC Advisory 1 · 21 Oct 21:00Z	first	Snapshot a2f96dd0 · Selected

Monitoring geography and current changes

Area: None: no U.S. state or territory is under NHC’s coastal watches or warnings or inside the cone, Advisory 1
Coastal watches and warnings: none in a U.S. state · Cone: crosses no U.S. state
Hazards: —
Window: In force now, with this advisory’s forecast
Made by: NHC’s own products, as this site’s pipeline published them, read again with each new advisory. Watch another area

The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.

All published products and source descriptions

Forecast track

The official forecast track, drawn by this site from NHC’s Advisory 1 (21:00Z). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.

Wind speed probabilities

NHC’s wind speed probabilities are not reported for this advisory.

NHC’s coastal watches and warnings

The advisory’s watches and warnings are not reported.

Intensity forecast

The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from NHC’s Advisory 1 (21:00Z). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.

Satellite

The storm’s page shows it on the satellite, loaded by your browser.

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Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.

Model guidance

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast for Subtropical Storm Josephine, NHC Advisory 1

The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from NHC’s Advisory 1 (21:00Z). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.

Radar

NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.

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Live tiles; the radar keeps no last-good copy.

Sources

NHC advisory, as published checked 01:56Z
Radar live tiles, no last-good copy

NWS coverage unavailableSubtropical Storm Josephine · — alerts

No supported NWS monitoring area. Check local warning authorities.

Not checked

Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.