Forecast track
The official forecast track, drawn by this site from NHC’s Best track (). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.
Category 1 Hurricane Isaias
Current advisory context · 75 kt · 86 mph · 977 hPa · ENE at 9 kt
Storm Mode · NHC Best track ·
Historical advisory selected · current imagery and impacts are not attached
Replay uses retained source bytes. Recording begins with activation; missing history is not clear weather.
Live sources keep independent clocks.
Replay coverage and interpretation
Rolling target: 24 hours; cells: six hours. Radar: NOAA MRMS national overview, 8-minute tolerance. Satellite: original GOES GeoColor day/night picture, hourly sampling, 75-minute tolerance. No interpolation or latest-image fallback. Warning and source checks retain their own clocks. “Recorded by” is collector acquisition evidence, not exact browser publication history.
Current GLM density, velocity and specialist layers are hidden during replay. Snow uses retained footprint metadata with unverified pixel time. Forecast uses one pinned issuance/run and exact valid time.
No observed replay frame displayed.
Open the complete replay reader (works without scripting or WebGL)Published advisory track · Best track
Observed imagery loads separately from the advisory. The base map is not observed satellite imagery.
The cone describes center uncertainty; impacts can extend outside it.
MaverickWX map · Data: NOAA/NHC · not an official graphic
Use Forecast above to pin an official issuance and valid point. The forecast table and advisory history remain available below.
Potential impacts and monitoring context
Current NWS monitoring states: AL, AR, FL, IL, IN, KY, MO, MS, TNCurrent warnings in the monitoring area
States under NHC’s coastal watches and warnings and inside the cone, Best track: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Mississippi and Tennessee. Current geographical context; these alerts are not attributed to the cyclone and are not part of the historical advisory.
In force in this area 6
- Flood Warning2until 18 Oct 12:00Z
- Red Flag Warning4until 18 Oct 01:00Z
Every alert in this area, most urgent first
- Flood WarningLake and Volusia counties, FLuntil · NWS Melbourne FL
- Flood WarningSarasota County, FLuntil · NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
- Red Flag WarningAshley; Chicot; Morehouse; West Carroll; East Carroll; Richland; Madison; Franklin; Catahoula; Tensas; Concordia; Bolivar; Sunflower; Leflore; Grenada; Carroll; Montgomery; Webster; Clay; Lowndes; Choctaw; Oktibbeha; Washington; Humphreys; Holmes; Attala; Winston; Noxubee; Issaquena; Sharkey; Yazoo; Madison; Leake; Neshoba; Kemper; Warren; Hinds; Rankin; Scott; Newton; Lauderdale; Claiborne; Copiah; Simpson; Smith; Jasper; Clarke; Jefferson; Adams; Franklin; Lincoln; Lawrence; Jefferson Davis; Covington; Jones; Marion; Lamar; Forrestuntil · NWS Jackson MS
- Red Flag WarningWayne; Perry; Greene; Stone; Georgeuntil · NWS Mobile AL
- Red Flag WarningLincoln; Union; Jackson; Ouachita; Natchitoches; Winn; Grant; Caldwell; La Salleuntil · NWS Shreveport LA · drawn over this area
- Red Flag WarningPointe Coupee; West Feliciana; East Feliciana; St. Helena; Washington; Iberville; West Baton Rouge; East Baton Rouge; Assumption; St. James; Northern Tangipahoa; Southeast St. Tammany; Northern St. Tammany; Southwestern St. Tammany; Central Tangipahoa; Lower Tangipahoa; Northern Livingston; Southern Livingston; Western Ascension; Eastern Ascension; Wilkinson; Amite; Pike; Walthall; Pearl River; Hancock; Harrison; Jacksonuntil · NWS New Orleans LA
Most urgent first, by the Briefing’s ranking. Checked .
Flood Warning
Lake and Volusia counties, FL
Flood Warning issued October 17 at 9:04AM EDT by NWS Melbourne FL
Issued · ends
Official Flood Warning bulletinFlood Warning
Sarasota County, FL
Flood Warning issued October 17 at 9:02AM EDT until October 18 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
Issued · ends
Official Flood Warning bulletinRed Flag Warning
Ashley; Chicot; Morehouse; West Carroll; East Carroll; Richland; Madison; Franklin; Catahoula; Tensas; Concordia; Bolivar; Sunflower; Leflore; Grenada; Carroll; Montgomery; Webster; Clay; Lowndes; Choctaw; Oktibbeha; Washington; Humphreys; Holmes; Attala; Winston; Noxubee; Issaquena; Sharkey; Yazoo; Madison; Leake; Neshoba; Kemper; Warren; Hinds; Rankin; Scott; Newton; Lauderdale; Claiborne; Copiah; Simpson; Smith; Jasper; Clarke; Jefferson; Adams; Franklin; Lincoln; Lawrence; Jefferson Davis; Covington; Jones; Marion; Lamar; Forrest
Red Flag Warning issued October 17 at 5:35AM CDT until October 17 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Jackson MS
Issued · ends
Official Red Flag Warning bulletinRed Flag Warning
Wayne; Perry; Greene; Stone; George
Red Flag Warning issued October 17 at 7:32AM CDT until October 17 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Mobile AL
Issued · ends
Official Red Flag Warning bulletinRed Flag Warning
Lincoln; Union; Jackson; Ouachita; Natchitoches; Winn; Grant; Caldwell; La Salle
Red Flag Warning issued October 17 at 2:51AM CDT until October 17 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Shreveport LA
Issued · ends
Official Red Flag Warning bulletinRed Flag Warning
Pointe Coupee; West Feliciana; East Feliciana; St. Helena; Washington; Iberville; West Baton Rouge; East Baton Rouge; Assumption; St. James; Northern Tangipahoa; Southeast St. Tammany; Northern St. Tammany; Southwestern St. Tammany; Central Tangipahoa; Lower Tangipahoa; Northern Livingston; Southern Livingston; Western Ascension; Eastern Ascension; Wilkinson; Amite; Pike; Walthall; Pearl River; Hancock; Harrison; Jackson
Red Flag Warning issued October 17 at 1:23PM CDT until October 17 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS New Orleans LA
Issued · ends
Official Red Flag Warning bulletin
Official forecast table
Official forecast positions and intensity
NHC Best track · advisory · forecast cycle . Forecast positions are future estimates, not observed imagery. Classification is shown only where published.
| Valid time / lead | Position | Classification | Sustained wind |
|---|---|---|---|
+0 h from forecast cycle | 23.4°N, 90.6°W | hurricane | 70 kt · 81 mph |
+3 h from forecast cycle | 23.7°N, 90.2°W | hurricane | 75 kt · 86 mph |
+12 h from forecast cycle | 24.9°N, 89.0°W | hurricane | 90 kt · 104 mph |
+24 h from forecast cycle | 27.1°N, 87.9°W | hurricane | 95 kt · 109 mph |
+36 h from forecast cycle | 29.6°N, 87.4°W | hurricane | 85 kt · 98 mph |
+48 h from forecast cycle | 32.3°N, 87.8°W | post tropical cyclone | 35 kt · 40 mph |
+60 h from forecast cycle | 34.6°N, 88.1°W | post tropical cyclone | 30 kt · 35 mph |
+72 h from forecast cycle | 36.5°N, 87.8°W | post tropical cyclone | 25 kt · 29 mph |
Advisory history and records
Retained advisory records
Return to latest advisoryEach entry selects one immutable snapshot. Intermediate, special and corrected records are separate identities where retained. Current NWS context is labelled separately. Historical impact manifests are not retained by this index; newer impacts are never attached to an earlier advisory. Same-time corrections replaced in the publisher’s index cannot be selected unless still listed.
Monitoring geography and current changes
- Area
- States under NHC’s coastal watches and warnings and inside the cone, Best track: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Mississippi and Tennessee (NWS states: AL, AR, FL, IL, IN, KY, MO, MS, TN)
Coastal watches and warnings: none in a U.S. state · Cone: AL, AR, FL, IL, IN, KY, MO, MS, TN - Hazards
- Tornado, severe thunderstorm, flash flood, river flood, areal flood, coastal flood, tropical and other warnings, watches and advisories, and the forecasts for them
- Window
- In force now, with this advisory’s forecast
- Made by
- NHC’s own products, as this site’s pipeline published them, read again with each new advisory. Watch another area
The storm’s area, by its warning centre’s products: everything listed is in force in this area, never “from this storm”.
Map
- Flood Warning 2
- Red Flag Warning 4
NWS’s polygons as issued, or the zones a zone-issued alert names; SPC’s watches by their counties. Checked . Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC.
What changed, last 60 minutes
since , when this server began watching this areaNothing has changed since 19:28Z.
The products’ own words and times, and what is no longer in force since the last read. Never written by AI.
All published products and source descriptions
Wind speed probabilities
NHC’s wind speed probabilities are not reported for this advisory.
NHC’s coastal watches and warnings
The advisory’s watches and warnings are not reported.
Intensity forecast
The official intensity forecast, drawn by this site from NHC’s Best track (). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.
Satellite
The storm’s page shows it on the satellite, loaded by your browser.
Imagery from NASA GIBS: NOAA GOES and JMA Himawari.
Model guidance
The models’ tracks, which are not a forecast, drawn by this site from NHC’s Best track (). Not an official NHC product. Data: NOAA/NHC. NHC’s own.
Flash-flood risk, Day 1
- Marginal
- Slight
WPC’s excessive rainfall outlook, to , issued : a chance of flash flooding, in four categories. Data: NOAA/WPC.
River gauges in flood
1 major · 1 moderate · 2 minor · 14 at action stage
- major Navarre Beach Gulf of America (In MHHW) NAVF1, observed
- moderate Astor ASTF1, forecast
- minor Myakka River State Park MKCF1, observed
- minor Luxapallila Creek MLLA1, observed
NWS’s gauges at flood stage or above in the area, worst first, each with its forecast hydrograph on Rain & rivers. Data: NOAA/NWPS.
Rain expected and rain that fell
WPC’s rain forecast and MRMS’s radar estimate of the rain that fell, on the Briefing’s map for the area.
Data: NOAA/WPC, NOAA/NSSL MRMS.
SPC Day 1 outlook
- General Thunderstorms Risk highest in this area
SPC’s Day 1 categorical outlook, valid to , issued . SPC’s categories, as drawn. Data: NOAA/SPC.
Watches
No tornado or severe thunderstorm watch in force in this area.
SPC’s watches, by number, matched by the counties they list. Data: NOAA/SPC.
Mesoscale discussions
No mesoscale discussion reaches this area.
SPC’s mesoscale discussions whose outline reaches the area. Data: NOAA/SPC.
Storm ingredients
SPC’s hourly mesoanalysis, observed soundings and model guidance for the area, on the Analysis tab with its own clocks.
Drawn by the Analysis tab’s own renderer. Data: NOAA/SPC, NOAA/NCEP.
Radar
NOAA’s radar for the area, loaded by your browser as on the Radar page.
Live tiles; the radar keeps no last-good copy.
Sources
NHC best track, as published checked
NWS warnings and SPC watches checked
NWS watches and advisories checked
SPC mesoscale discussions checked
SPC Day 1 outlook checked
WPC excessive rainfall checked
NWPS river gauges checked
Radar live tiles, no last-good copy
Not an official warning service. Warnings and watches are the National Weather Service’s, outlooks and reports the Storm Prediction Center’s and the Weather Prediction Center’s (Data: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/SPC, NOAA/WPC). When a warning is issued for you, act on it, and use weather.gov or a NOAA Weather Radio for where you are.